A Perspective on the State of the Tea Party

1. A Perspective on the State of the Tea Party George Barna American Culture & Faith Institute November 7, 2013

2. Three Perspectives… • Current Standing of the Tea Party • Hopeful Signs and Opportunities • Challenges Going Forward

3. Three Perspectives… • Current Standing of the Tea Party • Hopeful Signs and Opportunities • Challenges Going Forward

4. National Awareness of Tea Party Data from October 2013

5. Tea Party Favorability Rating Data from October 2013

6. Where the Tea Party Lines Up: National Favorability Ratings (Oct. 2013)

7. Size of the Movement Data from October 2013

8. Tea Party as a Reflection of America • 28% say the TP reflects the views of most Americans • 60% say it does not • 19% say they agree with the TP movement • 48% have no opinion • 37% say the TP Movement is good for the country • 52% of conservatives • 66% of Republicans • 87% of TP supporters • 44% of adults say it is bad for the country… Data from October 2013

9. Republican Support for the TP Data from September 2013

10. Tea Party “Member”Support for Republican Party • 55% are favorable toward the Republican Party • 43% are unfavorable • 52% say Tea Party is a separate, independent movement from the Republican Party • 51% of Republicans and 47% of all adults agree Data from Sept. - Oct. 2013

11. Perceptions AmongConservative Protestant Pastors Data from July 2013

12. Summary of the Tea Party’s Current Standing • High name recognition • Below average substantive awareness • Limited voter empathy • Limited support among registered Republicans • Lukewarm TP support for Republican Party • Above average favor with conservative pastors

13. Three Perspectives… • Current Standing of the Tea Party • Hopeful Signs and Opportunities • Challenges Going Forward

14. Americans are fed up with their government • With government performance: • 16% are satisfied with the way we are being governed • 11% approve of the job Congress is doing • 17% have a great deal of confidence in our system of government • 19% say they can trust the government to do what is right always or most of the time • 12% feel content with our government • 30% are angry with our government • 55% are frustrated with our government Data from October 2013

15. Americans are fed up with their government • With government power: • 54% say the federal government has too much power • 62% believe the federal government has become so large and powerful that it poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens Data from May - June 2013

16. Americans are fed up with their government • Majority has different governance preferences: • 60% say the government is trying to do too many things that should be left up to individuals and businesses • 51% would prefer a smaller government that provides fewer services … 40% prefer a bigger government providing more services Data from Sept. - Oct. 2013

17. Americans are worried about the direction of the country • 14% are satisfied with the way things are going in our country today • 14% believe things are generally headed in the right direction • 64% feel that the biggest threat to the country in the future is big government Data from October 2013

18. Rapid Rise of Tea Party Awareness

19. Government Scandals and IntrusionArgue for Reduced Government • IRS targeting conservative non-profits • NSA database development • DOJ seizing reports’ phone records • Benghazi cover up • GSA money spent on gambling • Affordable Care Act • NSA spying on foreign leaders • Attorney General cover up on Fast & Furious

20. Serial revelations aboutgovernment intrusion into our lives will further erode public goodwill • 56% are worried that government surveillance efforts go too far in invading personal privacy • 70% believe that government data collection goes beyond anti-terrorism efforts • 63% believe the government is collecting the content of phone calls and e-mails • 56% say the federal courts do not provide adequate limitations on what data the government can collect • 51% feel the IRS targeting conservative groups is a very important issue Data from June - July 2013

21. Increased fiscal conservatismamong Americans is encouraging • The top-rated national issues are the economy (1st) and dysfunctional government (2nd) • Household debt has dropped from $12.88 trillion in Q3 2008 to $11.15 trillion in Q2 2013 • Only 11% believe the federal government has reduced spending as much as it can • Just 23% say they have seen any impact from across-the-board federal spending cuts (i.e. the sequester) • 55% favored raising the debt ceiling only if the government agreed to cut spending to offset the raise Data from October 2013

22. Consumer Comfort Index displays our unease with where things stand Data for October of years shown; Bloomberg

23. Tea Party Constituency is Sizeable • If 21% of adults are Tea Party supporters, that’s 50-55 million voting age people • Obama won in 2012 with 66 million votes • 40% of adults claim to be conservative • 71% of Republicans claim to be conservative • 46% of adults say they are economically conservative • Marketers and social scientists concur that a movement can have substantial impact once it reaches 12% to 15% of the population in question • Tea Party is well beyond the threshold

24. Tea Party Supporters Have a Distinctive Point of View Data from October 2013

25. Tea Party Supporters Have a Distinctive Point of View Data from October 2013

26. Summary ofHopeful Signs and Opportunities • Government is unpopular • People know things are moving in the wrong direction • We are increasingly worried about Big Brother • Taxpayers are trying to reign in their spending • Taxpayers are not convinced the government is trying to curtail its spending • Tea Party has enough distinctives to stand out • Tea Party is large enough to change the game

27. Three Perspectives… • Current Standing of the Tea Party • Hopeful Signs and Opportunities • Challenges Going Forward

28. Challenges: • The absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus

29. Leaders… Motivate, mobilize, resource, and direct people toward a shared vision of a preferred future

30. Grassroots Movements Live or Die According to How They Handle:

31. Challenges: • Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus • Loss of momentum

32. Bad trend lines… • Three-year decline in favorability • 38% in 2010 … 28% in 2013 • Three-year decline in self-identified supporters • 31% in 2010 … 21% in 2013 • Plateaued national awareness • 81% in 2010 … 83% in 2013 • Decline in support among Republicans • 65% in 2010 … 38% in 2013 • Low proportion who say TP speaks for most Americans • Just 24% • Low proportion who say TP is improving the process • 37%

33. Challenges: • Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus • Loss of momentum • Influence of the mass media

34. Challenges: • Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus • Loss of momentum • Influence of the mass media • Disunity among conservatives

35. Challenges: • Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus • Loss of momentum • Influence of the mass media • Disunity among conservatives • Alleged absence of “intellectual rigor”

36. Challenges: • Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus • Loss of momentum • Influence of the mass media • Disunity among conservatives • Alleged absence of “intellectual rigor” • Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how”

37. Challenges: • Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus • Loss of momentum • Influence of the mass media • Disunity among conservatives • Alleged absence of “intellectual rigor” • Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how” • Limitations in the Tea Party demographic profile

38. Challenges: • Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus • Loss of momentum • Influence of the mass media • Disunity among conservatives • Alleged absence of “intellectual rigor” • Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how” • Limitations in the Tea Party demographic profile • Death of the American Dream – lowering the bar

39. Concluding thoughts… • Prove your viability in 2014 • Same vision, new strategies and tactics • Measure what matters and respond accordingly • If led properly, the Tea Party could move beyond hit-or-miss impact to substantially altering the national political landscape

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