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Africa Briefing April 12, 2011 Miliaritiana Robjhon miliaritiana.robjhon@noaa

Heavy rains in Western and Southern Africa, seasonal precipitation anomalies, crop performance updates, and climate outlook for the region.

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Africa Briefing April 12, 2011 Miliaritiana Robjhon miliaritiana.robjhon@noaa

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  1. Africa BriefingApril 12, 2011Miliaritiana Robjhonmiliaritiana.robjhon@noaa.gov • Heavy rains continued to subside in western southern Africa • Northern Malawi and southern Tanzania continued to receive heavy rains.

  2. Heavy rains in coastal central Mozambique is associated with anomalous easterlies from the Indian Ocean APR 6

  3. Persistent heavy rains in western southern Africa could be linked to the active phase of MJO during past week

  4. Precipitation Anomaly Expansion of normal to above-normal precip over much of the areas Reduction of rainfall deficits in southeastern Africa

  5. Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly Although the increase in weekly rainfall has been noticeable in northern South Africa, it had little effect on seasonal rainfall deficits

  6. WRSI and SWI 1 DEKAD APRIL 3 DEKAD MARCH Poor to mediocre crop performance remained over portions of southern Africa Increasing rain in northern South Africa partially eliminated wilting conditions

  7. Dipole with anomalous positive (negative) rain days in western (eastern) southern Africa 3rd Dekad of March

  8. Time series of Precipitation at individual locations ONDJIVA PIETERSBURG Decrease in frequency and intensity since last dekad of March Sporadic but more more intense rainfall has led to above-average precipitation

  9. Time series of rainfall over northern Malawi and southern Tanzania CHITIPA Rainfall surpluses > 200mm MTWARA Rainfall surpluses > 350mm

  10. The Greater Horn of Africa An apparent return of rains may be indicative of the onset of the March-May rains season in Ethiopia

  11. Precipitation Anomaly Improvement only locally in southwestern Ethiopia Rainfall deficits reach or exceed 100mm Otherwise overall strengthening of moisture deficits in the region

  12. Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly

  13. Eastern Africa hit by significant dryness since the last 30 days Poor rainfall distribution Number of days since rain anomalies > 15 in many local areas

  14. Daily 10-Day Moisture Index Favorable moisture in southwestern Ethiopia, but elsewhere insufficient moisture supply

  15. Time series of rainfall over individual locations WELDIYA BAIDOA Practically no rain since the last 30 days

  16. Gulf of Guinea Region 7-Day Precip Anomaly Slightly above-average rainfall over eastern CI, southern Ghana, Togo, and Benin

  17. 24-hr Surface Observations Not much going on except off shore cold IR temp in western Angola and central South Africa Southeastern Madagascar – cyclonic motion

  18. Precip Forecast for the Next 7 Days High Prob. Of Precip > 50mm over southeastern Tanzania => Potential Flooding

  19. Weather/Climate Outlook for Africa • AT 1-MONTH LEAD FOR MAY-JUL, 2011 • Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) calls for above-normal rainfall in western Ethiopia, Gulf of Guinea • Climate Forecast System (CFS) calls for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over central Sudan and central Somalia

  20. CLIMATE OUTLOOK AT 4-MONTH LEAD AUG-OCT, 2011 Increased chance for below-average rainfall in Western Sudan – and above-average in parts of southern Sudan Increased chance for above-average rainfall over portions of the Sahel

  21. WEATHER HAZARDS IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR AFRICA Add flood polygon and possibly extend to southern Tanzania?

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