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End of History or Clash of Civilizations?. Francis Fukuyama Liberal democracy and Western values prevailSam Huntington Age of ideology over, but world reverts to cultural base of conflictTwo challenger civilizations" Sinic (China, Korea, etc.) and Muslim World. Huntington's Map of Major Civ
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1. Islam & China – Remaking Southeast Asia? University of Chicago Graduate School of Business
International Roundtable
June 21, 2007
2. End of History or Clash of Civilizations? Francis Fukuyama
Liberal democracy and Western values prevail
Sam Huntington
Age of ideology over, but world reverts to cultural base of conflict
Two “challenger civilizations” – Sinic (China, Korea, etc.) and Muslim World
3. Huntington’s Map of Major Civilizations
5. Diversity “Southeast Asia nurtures such rank and exuberant variegation of language, custom, and subsistence mode that it is scarcely possible to focus the jumbled pieces into a coherent image.”
--Stanley J. O’Connor
6. Main Political Forces Democratization
Military
Economic & cultural elites
Rural & urban poor
Ethnicity
Religion
7. Democratization Democracy
Legitimacy
Effectiveness
Security
Prosperity
Moral authority of leader
Most important where there is lack of confidence in the institutions of law to protect against abuse of power
National identity
8. Military Organized
National reach
Protectors of national security
Fight for independence, against insurgencies
Avenue for upward mobility
9. Economic & Cultural Elites Chinese business
Wealthy families
Royalty
Religious leaders
Educators
10. Rural & Urban Poor “People power”
Poverty base of revolutionary movements
Populist democratic movements
11. Ethnicity Chinese economic power
South Asians
Indigenous people
Malay “bumiputra”
Hill tribes
Multiplicity of ethnic groups may mitigate
12. Religion Multiple religious influences, but
Clear religious majorities
Buddhist Thailand
Moslem Malaysia & Indonesia
Christian Philippines
Disadvantaged religious minorities
Christians in Indonesia
Moslems in Thailand and the Philippines
13. Moslems in SE Asia More than 200 million Muslims in SE Asia (almost 20% of world’s 1.2 billion Muslims)
Arab-Muslim traders spread Islam since the seventh century (reached SE Asia in 1300s)
Minorities (localized communities) in
Buddhist Thailand & Myanmar
Christian Philippines
Majorities in Malaysia & Indonesia
15. Historical Overlays Ancient foundations
Stone age (java man, etc.)
Australonesian, Polynesian, Malay
Asian commerce
East – Chinese
South – Indian
West – Arab
Commerce also brought religion, customs and court practices
19. European Colonization Portuguese, Spanish, British, French, Dutch
Political, economic & cultural
Covered most of Southeast Asia
Indonesia – Portuguese, then British, then Dutch
Philippines – Spain, then US
Burma & Malaysia – British
Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia) – French
Thailand – squeezed but never under European rule
20. Bandung Conference 1955 Organized by Egypt, Indonesia, Burma, Ceylon, India & Pakistan
29 Asian and African nations attended
Sukarno & Nehru key speeches
Promote economic and cultural cooperation and oppose colonialism
China role – eased fears
Led to nonaligned movement (1961)
21. Threat of Communism Most SE Asian countries became independent during cold war era
Communism was the major revolutionary political force
With decline of communism, religious and ethnic differences gain significance
22. Mixed Issues Ethnic v. Religious divisions
Ethnic & religious minorities in Thailand and the Philippines
Islamic majorities in multi-ethnic Malaysia and Indonesia – Chinese minority with economic power
Both situations worked against Islamic political dominance
23. Thailand Area: 514,000 sq. mi.
Population: 64,631,595
GDP per capita: $9,100 (PPP)
Export economy
Agriculture
Manufactured goods
24. Thailand Buddhist majority
Only SE Asian country never under European rule
Intermittent democracy/military rule
King’s strong influence
Militant Muslim minority in south
25. Democracy vs. Military Rule Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932
First democratically elected PM in 1946
Army took back power in 1947
Phibun, Sarit, Thanom
Thai values – order, hierarchy, religion
1970s – peasant/student unrest
Democratically elected governments
Military continued periodic intervention
Currently devising 17th constitution
27. Sufficiency Economics Capitalism & globalization
Reckless growth, crisis
Too much liquidity/investment?
King’s concern for poor people and the environment
Capitalist Thaksin programs helped the poor
Military – recent inept economic measures
28. Insurgency Communist insurgency in north and northeast no longer active
Malay insurgency in south goes back 100 years – recently heated up
Attacks on schools – symbols of Thai efforts to force assimilation
Severity – links to global Islamic terror network?
29. Drivers of Insurgency Economic
Poverty, inequality, exploitation
Social
Ethnic or class grievances
Political
Oppressive government
Military/police brutality
Foreign occupation
Religious
Purely religious
Linked to local issues
Linked to global movements
31. Philippines Area: 300,000 sq. mi.
Population: 89,468,677
GNP per capita: $5,000 (PPP)
Economy
Debt (69% of GDP) and inefficiency
Industry, services, agriculture
Remittances
32. Philippines Catholic Spain evangelized most of the country – Muslim remnant minority ethnic groups
US defeated Spain, took over administration
Fought 14 year war against Filippino insurgents seeking independence
Ultimately supported democratic self-governance - focus on education and legal system
33. Political Forces Mainstream politics
Elite families & cronies
Weak, fluid political parties
Rebels
Communists
Muslim successionists
Catholic Church influential
34. Democracy in Decline? Marcos took dictatorial power – forced out by “people power” revolution
Last President (Estrada) forced to step down
Accusations of election irregularity on the part of the current President (Arroyo)
Proposals to change government to parliamentary style
35. Insurgents in the Philippines New People’s Army (NPA)
Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)
Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)
Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)
37. Moros – Centuries of Insurgency Islam reached southern Philippines in 14th century
Spanish arrived in the north soon after
Moros fought Spanish and initially welcomed Americans
Soon proved difficult foe for US (1902-1913)
Juramentado – suicide attacks on civilians
Fought Japanese
Objected to position in Philippine Republic
38. MNLF & MILF Moro National Liberation Front formed in 1969 by university students in Philippines and Mid East
Support from Libya and elsewhere
Leadership split – 1989, Moro Islamic Liberation Front
MILF smaller but more militant
40. Abu Sayyaf Small but brutal group
Wahabi influenced/financed
Afghanistan fight experience
Al-Qaeda connection
41. Common Themes Problems of governance
Governments unable to deliver benefits equitably
Democratic governments supported by poor brought down by educated elites
Militant insurgencies
Suppressed Islam minorities
Seek local autonomy
Connection to external support
42. Malaysia Population: 24,385,858
GDP per capita (PPP): $12,700
43. Mixed Progress Solid economic growth, but
Dominant party autocracy and
Social (ethnic) tensions
44. Political Forces Constitutional monarchy
Position of king rotates
King is not a significant political force
Ruling coalition
United Malays National Organization (UMNO)
Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA)
Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC)
Opposition
Partia Islam se Malaysia (PAS)
Democratic Action Party (DAP)
Chinese base
45. Coalition of Elites MCA and MIC in alliance with UMNO
Barisan National (BN) coalition formed in 1946, dominated by UMNO
Have won every election
Economic disparities, social tensions & race riots led to measures to favor Malay
Economic growth kept opposition at bay
PM Matahir Mohammed co-opted Islamic issues
46. Islam & Democracy Almost all Malays are Muslim
Religion, like race, provides communal identity
PAS grew to be largest opposition party in 1990s
PAS embraced democratic process in competing with UMNO
Anwar incident – failed opportunity for change
47. Stability BN coalition – careful balance between appeal to communal bases and stability
Economic development central
Ethnic division remain – parties continue to all have ethnic/racial bases
48. Indonesia Population: 245,452,739
GDP per capita (PPP): $3,800
49. Indonesia Pancasila (five principles) – official state ideology
Belief in one God
Just and civilized humanity
National unity
Democracy by consensus of representatives
Social justice for all
Held hundreds of ethnic groups together
Many Muslims wanted to add Islam and Sharia – blocked by Sukarno
50. Communism After independence, widespread public participation in interest groups
Communist party (PKI) –
On the side of poor, workers & peasants
Opposed landlords, also Muslim local elites.
Military/senior bureaucrats managed economic assets taken from Dutch
US alarmed at PKI growth
3 million by 1965
Potential influence on other underdeveloped nations
51. 1965 Left-right divisions in military
Sukarno
Symbol of national unity – untouchable
PKI balance power against right wing top generals
Sept 30 mutiny by mid-level officers
Killed 6 generals
Suharto escaped (or was in on a conspiracy)
Military leadership/Suharto blamed PKI
Rumors of atrocities
Used local forces to eliminate communists
Real atrocities – 500,000 killed
52. Suharto Suharto put technocrats (Berkeley Mafia) in major positions
Consistent with Pancasila concepts of rational state
Emphasis on indigenous concepts
Islamic groups in opposition
Military economic involvement
53. Bureaucratic Capitalism Pertamina affair
Powerful public figures build private economic empires
Ethnic Chinese capitalists
Suharto ties with Liem Sioe Liong
Pervasive corruption growing political issue
54. Separatist Movements Moluccas
East Timor
55. Free Aceh Aceh home to conservative Muslim community
Aceh Merdeka (Free Aceh) separatist movement since Dutch colonial time
More radical National Liberation Front Aceh Sumatra (GPK-Aceh) emerged in 1990s
Post-tsunami agreements
56. East Timor, Moluccas, West Papua Christian populations resisted Indonesian authority/integration
Moluccas and Western Guinea claimed by Indonesia as part of former Dutch area
East Timor – Portuguese control until 1975
57. East Timor 1500s Portuguese arrive
1974 Portuguese abandoned
1975 Declared independence, but Indonesia invaded before international recognition
US quiet support to Indonesia (fear of communism)
Brutal military occupation
1999 Referendum for independence
New Indonesian President
UN, US, Portugal pressures
Unrest and fighting continues
58. Molluccas 1513 Portuguese
1599 Dutch
1949 Indonesia given control
1950 Attempted succession
Government in exile in Netherlands
Transmigration exacerbated strife between Christians & Moslems
2002 Accords & relative peace
59. New Guinea Island of New Guinea divided by colonial powers
Spanish (1545)
Dutch (Western half – 1828)
British, Germans (Eastern half – late 1800s)
Oil, copper, gold
WWII – US military base
1945 Dutch retained West New Guinea, but Indonesia claimed
1952 Papuan right to self-determination
1961 West Papua declared independence
60. Western New Guineaaka West Papua, West Irian, Irian Jaya 1963 UN transferred control to Indonesia – subject to vote
1969 Indonesia took control
“Act of Free Choice” ??
US support (concern about spread of communism)
1971 Construction of Freeport mine
Transmigration
2000-2006 Separatist activity, limited autonomy, division
62. Islam in SE Asia Introduced between 1100 & 1400 AD
“Soft penetration”
Came through traders and missionaries rather than conquest
Overlaid on animist, Hindu and Buddhist traditions
Two main sources:
Indian Islam – tolerant and easy going
Yemen/Saudi Arabia – strict, orthodox, austere
63. Diversity & Local Flavor Diversity in the region reflected in religious practices
Sufi influence through India (mysticism) resonates with traditional animist/Hindu/Buddhist culture
Limited influence directly from Middle East
Traders/migrants (Yemen)
64. Links to Middle East Islam Historic gulf due to distance
Better communications & easier travel
Support for Islamic schools
Local issues still dominant
Common issues
Resent Israel treatment of Palestinians and US support of Israel
Object to US military action in Afghanistan and Iraq
65. Unity in Diversity Ummah – despite diversity, recognition that all Muslims belong to one community
Hajj – shared experience of pilgrimage
Jihad – struggle to live the right kind of life
Many Muslims do not separate religious from secular life
Obligation to shape the world so people can live according to God’s will
66. Tolerance & Tension Muslim countries have traditionally been tolerant of Christian and Jewish minorities
Most Muslim countries and leaders have condemned terrorist attacks
But
Perception of being under attack
Colonialism
Hollywood
Israel
Afghanistan, Iraq, Chechnya
67. Islamic Revival Internal factors
Globalization – impact of Western culture
Asian financial crisis
Overthrow of Suharto; separatist movements
State sponsored Islamic schools
External factors
Islamic revolution in Iran
Saudi export of Wahhabi fundamentalism
Afghan war against Soviets
Israel
Iraq, Afghanistan
68. Political Islam Muslim political agenda inspired by Islamic concerns
Islamic parties with Islamic agenda
Varied factors limit political Islam in SE Asia
Resistance by economic elites
Diversity among Islamic groups
69. Militant Islam Abu Sayyaf (Philippines)
Jemaah Islamiyah (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia)
Al Qaeda support
Philippines – foothold
Indonesia – fertile ground
Malaysia – worries
Thailand – target of convenience Osama bin Laden's brother-in-law ran a network of Islamic charities in the southern Philippines; some of the money was funneled to local Muslim militants. And Ramzi Yousef planned the 1993 World Trade Center bombing from a safe house in Manila. Philippine investigators also uncovered a plot to fly a plane into CIA headquarters -- five years before the Sept. 11 attacks -- but no one took it seriously
Several alleged terrorist groups have been active in Indonesia for years. One of them is the group called Jemmah Islamiyah, which is believed responsible for dozens of attacks in Indonesia in the past several years, including the bombings on the resort island of Bali in October 2002. Investigators say it's clear the group has close ties to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network
Malaysia has not yet been a terrorist target, but authorities are worried that another Bali-style bombing could happen in their country. The group believed responsible for the Bali blasts -- Jemmah Islamiyah -- and Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda have used Malaysia extensively in the past decade as a base of operations
Coupled with porous borders and an anything-goes attitude in the capital Bangkok, Thailand has been called the ultimate "country of convenience." Thai officials now concede that the presumed mastermind of the Bali bombing, Hambali, planned the attacks during a meeting in Thailand. Security has been beefed up; but some warn that Thailand's many soft targets mean an attack is inevitable,
Osama bin Laden's brother-in-law ran a network of Islamic charities in the southern Philippines; some of the money was funneled to local Muslim militants. And Ramzi Yousef planned the 1993 World Trade Center bombing from a safe house in Manila. Philippine investigators also uncovered a plot to fly a plane into CIA headquarters -- five years before the Sept. 11 attacks -- but no one took it seriously
Several alleged terrorist groups have been active in Indonesia for years. One of them is the group called Jemmah Islamiyah, which is believed responsible for dozens of attacks in Indonesia in the past several years, including the bombings on the resort island of Bali in October 2002. Investigators say it's clear the group has close ties to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network
Malaysia has not yet been a terrorist target, but authorities are worried that another Bali-style bombing could happen in their country. The group believed responsible for the Bali blasts -- Jemmah Islamiyah -- and Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda have used Malaysia extensively in the past decade as a base of operations
Coupled with porous borders and an anything-goes attitude in the capital Bangkok, Thailand has been called the ultimate "country of convenience." Thai officials now concede that the presumed mastermind of the Bali bombing, Hambali, planned the attacks during a meeting in Thailand. Security has been beefed up; but some warn that Thailand's many soft targets mean an attack is inevitable,
71. China “Charm Offensive”
Free Trade Agreement
Proposed joint military exercises
US distraction
73. ASEAN Trade, 2005
74. China Trade, 2005
75. “Traditional” US Interests Stability & balance of power
Prevent being excluded by another power
Keep sea lanes open
Trade & investment
Support allies
Promote democracy, rule of law, human rights & religious freedom
76. Key Interests in SE Asia? (According to google)
Avian Flu
China
Combating terrorism
77. Recent Emphasis (2004) Top priority is war on terror
Five strategic partners
Philippines
Thailand
Japan
South Korea
Australia
78. USAID Indonesia $130 million (2006)
Focus on
Democratic governance
Basic human services
Basic education
Economic growth
Environment
Also
Tsunami rebuilding
Support for Aceh peace accord
79. USAID Philippines $70 million (2006)
Focus on
Family planning & health
Education
Economic governance
Environment & energy
Also
Conflict reduction in Mindano & other areas