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Climate Science Programs under the USGCRP: The Chronology and Development of the Climate Science Program in the PNW

Climate Science Programs under the USGCRP: The Chronology and Development of the Climate Science Program in the PNW . Amy Snover Climate Impacts Group University of Washington EPA Region 10 Climate Change TMDL Pilot 25 June 2012. Climate Science in the Public Interest.

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Climate Science Programs under the USGCRP: The Chronology and Development of the Climate Science Program in the PNW

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  1. Climate Science Programs under the USGCRP: The Chronology andDevelopment of the Climate Science Program in the PNW Amy Snover Climate Impacts Group University of Washington EPA Region 10 Climate Change TMDL Pilot 25 June 2012 Climate Science in the Public Interest

  2. Useful climate information matches decision makers’ scales of analysis, assessment and planning

  3. Development of Capacity to Project Local Hydroclimatic Conditions • The scenarios of future hydroclimatic conditions relevant to development of a PNW climate change TMDL pilot result from 15+ years of research on regional climate, statistical and dynamical downscaling, and hydrologic modeling & analysis. • They are the fruits of a multi-million dollar investment by NOAA, Washington State, federal, state and local water management agencies (USBR, USACOE, BPA, NWPCC; IDWR, ODWR, BC-Env) begun in 1995.

  4. More Streamflow Locations Increasing Temporal Resolution Increasing Use

  5. The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project A comprehensive suite of 21stcentury hydro/climate scenarios for almost 300 sites in the PNW, including projections of: • streamflow • evapotranspiration • flood & low flow statistics • precip, temp • soil moisture • snowpack Funded by: WA Ecology, BPA, NWPCC, OR Dept WR, BC Environment. http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/

  6. PNW Hydroclimatic Scenarios 2020s – mean 2010-2039; 2040s – mean 2030-2059; 2080s – mean 2070-2099

  7. CA coming soon!

  8. These Data Sets reflect a multi-million dollar investment since 1995 in statistical and dynamical downscaling, and hydrologic modeling and analysis. More recent data products & current projects leverage heavily off this investment.

  9. Finer-Scale Modeling - DHSVM • Physically based, distributed model • 150 meter resolution, 3hr time-step • Implementations: • Portland water supply • Seattle water supply • Central Puget Sound water supply • Puget Sound landcover change experiments • Snohomish basin: climate change & salmon recovery

  10. Existing hydroclimatic scenarios support impacts assessment and decision making based on consistent assumptions across a range of spatial scales and locations in the PNW and across the western US • These data products continue to be leveraged to create custom-tailored products and analyses • The existing architecture for hydrologic modeling, data management and delivery was designed to support cheaper and easier development of future scenarios Climate Science in the Public Interest

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