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Security and Stability in the South Caucasus

Security and Stability in the South Caucasus. Achim Wennmann Graduate Institute of International Studies Geneva Innsbruck, 1 October 2006. Presentation Outline. Similarities Differences Third party interests Conflict dynamics Implications for EU involvement. 1. Similarities.

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Security and Stability in the South Caucasus

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  1. Security and Stability in the South Caucasus Achim Wennmann Graduate Institute of International Studies Geneva Innsbruck, 1 October 2006

  2. Presentation Outline • Similarities • Differences • Third party interests • Conflict dynamics • Implications for EU involvement

  3. 1. Similarities • Dissolution of Soviet Union • Territorial conflicts • Formerly mixed population structure • Atrocities committed by all parties • Refugee problem • Disagreements on future status

  4. 2. Differences: 3rd parties • United States • Geo-strategic interests • Stability • Russia • Historical Memory • Interests in Georgia

  5. 2. Differences: Conflict dynamics • Nagorno-Karabakh • Negotiations • Window of opportunity closing? • Effect of petrol on peace process • Abkhazia/South Ossetia • Frozen conflict over • New elite in Georgia wants change • Strategy of Georgia

  6. 3. Conclusion and EU implications • Characteristics of conflicts • Conflicts similar but distinct • Conflicts a function of 3rd party involvement and strategies to maintain power of local elites • EU implications • Not able to compete with US & Russia • Limited impact on local elites • Potentialities: • Police reform • End isolation of de-facto states • Prepare populations for compromise

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