Urban Risk Management for Natural Disasters: Goals and Desired Outcomes

1. Urban Risk Management for Natural Disasters:Goals and Desired Outcomes Arthur Lerner-Lam Columbia University Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Center for Hazards and Risk Research Urban Risk Management for Natural Disasters

2. Workshop Rationale • Urban vulnerability is a focus area for natural hazard studies. • Wealth and assets of urban centers are unique. • Fine-scaled interdependencies within cities require complex approaches. • Natural hazards are city-scale physically; country- or global-scale culturally, socially, politically. • Cities represent important scale of decision-making, management, and response. Urban Risk Management for Natural Disasters

3. Workshop Rationale (cont.) • Turkish institutions have been exposed recently to disastrous earthquakes. • Geo-dynamics and kinematics of deformation along the North Anatolian Fault system, both on-land and marine, are areas of intense national and international research interest. • Some models of NAF deformation suggest enhanced earthquake probabilities near Istanbul. • Uncertainties related to tectonics require basic research in geology and geophysics. Urban Risk Management for Natural Disasters

4. Workshop Rationale (cont.) • WTC disaster has shifted focus to “extreme events”. • “Extreme events” are effectively one class of phenomena. Scale and scope have implicit relationship to national security. • Mitigation for one type of extreme event may build resiliency for other types. Fundamentals of resiliency related to sustainability. • Necessary to quantify probabilities and uncertainties for “worst possible”, not just “probable”. • Worst-case outlook affects cost-benefit analysis of mitigation. Urban Risk Management for Natural Disasters

5. Desired Outcomes • Principles and prototypes for science-based risk management for urban centers. • Research agenda consistent with policy needs. • Partnerships for research, education, and implementation. • Implementation of risk management strategies incorporating: • Worst-case scenarios • Cost-benefit analysis • Shifting tolerances • Application to Istanbul pilot • Portability to other localities Urban Risk Management for Natural Disasters

6. Discussion Goals • Physical science and social science research agenda: near term and long term. • Probabilities, uncertainties, tolerances, cost-benefit • Community-building for applications and implementation. • Data sources and needs. • Other resource needs. • Impediments to research and education initiatives. • Impediments to community interactions. Urban Risk Management for Natural Disasters

7. Discussion Goals (cont.) • Partnership models and opportunities • Funding opportunities • Education and outreach • Formal and informal educational initiatives • Joint degree programs, certificates • Specific course opportunities • Public awareness • Technology transfer • Research/stakeholder interaction model • Community interaction models • Mitigation • Emergency response Urban Risk Management for Natural Disasters

8. Discussion Goals (cont.) • Project focus areas • Pilot project • “vertical” integration (not “horizontal” geographic scope) • Participant commitment • Partnership for Urban Risk Management • Structural and funding models • Scope, including data and resource needs • Membership, including agencies, NGO’s, academic, international • Portability • Information systems underlie communication • Interoperability standards for information sharing. Urban Risk Management for Natural Disasters