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Foot-and-Mouth Disease Attack on the Midwest U. S.

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Attack on the Midwest U. S. Purpose. To develop and evaluate a plausible scenario for an attack on the Midwest United States using Foot-and-Mouth disease virus. The scenario is designed to facilitate discussions on broad agricultural preparedness and response issues.

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Foot-and-Mouth Disease Attack on the Midwest U. S.

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  1. Foot-and-Mouth DiseaseAttack on the Midwest U. S.

  2. Purpose To develop and evaluate a plausible scenario for an attack on the Midwest United States using Foot-and-Mouth disease virus. The scenario is designed to facilitate discussions on broad agricultural preparedness and response issues

  3. Foot-and-Mouth Disease • Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an extremely contagious, viral disease of domestic cloven-hoofed and many wild animals, characterized by fever, vesicular lesions and, subsequent erosions of the epithelium of the mouth, tongue, nares, muzzle, feet, and teats.

  4. Distribution and Recent Activity Free Present Recent Activity 1999 2000 2001 (Rev. 3 - 27 - 01) Availability of FMD Virus • FMD Virus is easily obtained in many countries of the world

  5. FMD Virus Stability • pH Sensitive: <6.5 or >11.0 • UV Sensitive: (sun light) • Survives in moist, organic-rich materials

  6. FMD Transmission • Aerosols • Direct contact • Meat products • Fomites

  7. FMD - Epidemiology • Morbidity: >95% • Mortality: • Adults <1% • Neonates >50% • Carrier state: in cattle (6-24 months)

  8. FMD- Cattle Tongue Lesions

  9. FMD – Swine Feet & Snout Lesions

  10. APHIS Response • Goal: To detect, control and eradicate the disease agent as quickly as possible to return the United States to free status • The scope of the disaster will vary by the speed of the response • Multiple foci • Real time exponential growth

  11. Risk Factors for Spread of FMD • Animal density • Animal concentration points • Livestock movements • Livestock markets • Sale Barns • Fairs and shows • People movements • Wildlife • Climate

  12. Population at Risk

  13. Model Assumptions • Limited to one location • 11 days from exposure to detection • For 60 day period • Limited livestock movement • No climatic factors • No wildlife spread • No people spread

  14. Introduction of FMD • Single foreign operative introduces FMD virus into a single cattle herd in the United States Midwest

  15. Day 1 Total = 13 Farms Affected

  16. Quarantined States

  17. National Activities • Movement controls (temporary) animals in transit continue to destination, no further movements allowed • Intensive surveillance • National and international communications

  18. Zones of Control • Infected zone • Quarantined area around the infected or presumed infected premises, (10km – 6mi as starting point) • May be alter based on weather, terrain, wildlife, livestock concentrations, etc • Surveillance zone • Restricted area around the infected zone • May initially include the entire affected state and those in close proximity to infected zone • Will be modified pending tracing and surveillance results

  19. Infected Zone Activities • Intensive epidemiological investigations of farmed animals and wildlife • Perimeter movement controls of roads • Animals or animal products stopped • Conveyances and people decontaminated • Depopulation and decontamination of infected farms

  20. Surveillance Zone Activities • Case finding • Livestock concentration points • Sick calls • Awareness campaign • Tracing contacts with infected animals and premises • We presume 8 contacts per farm per week • Livestock, vehicles, people and materials • Vaccination of a buffer zone around infected farms if efficacious

  21. Appraisal – Depopulation - Disposal • Appraise affected animals and dispose of them as close to the affected premises as possible – within 12-24 hours of culling • Estimated requirements are 5 workers per herd of 40 animals per day for depopulation and disposal • Average herd size = 200 animals

  22. Decontamination of Premises • Thorough cleaning and disinfecting of facilities, products and equipment • 3 people per farm per day for each 40 animals in herd

  23. Day 5All Total = 64 Affected Farms

  24. Day 25 Total = 3091 Affected Farms

  25. Day 60 Total = 5844 Affected Farms

  26. Analysis • Scenario suggested a single operative infecting a single farm but multiple farms would be more likely and could effectively spread FMD nationwide • Computer model showed that with the single introduction there would be 5844 affected farms within 60 days

  27. Analysis • 200 animals on each farm • $350 to appraise each farm • $5.50 euthanasia for each animal • $325 indemnity for each animal • $15 to dispose of each animal • $8,000 to clean and disinfect each farm • $3,200 further surveillance cost from each affected premises

  28. Analysis • Appraise $ 2.04M • Euthanasia $ 6.43M • Indemnity $379.86M • Disposal $ 17.53M • Clean/Disinfect $ 46.75M • Surveillance $ 18.71M • Total for ONE incident $471.32M

  29. Analysis • Export Losses with our markets closed • Live Animals • Germplasm • Animal Feed • Human Food • Animal Byproducts • $Millions?? $Billions??

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