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Foot and Mouth Disease: The UK Lessons.
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Warnings & Predictions: •April 2000: Year long survey of the MAFFsurveillance “early warning system” reported that itwas:–Woefully inadequate–SVS Field Service Vets 286 (2000) 500 (1979)–SVS Divisional Offices 23 (2000) 70+ (1979)–SVS VICs 16 (2000) 28 (1979)–FMD (1991) contingency plan out of date
Warnings & Predictions: •July 2000: MAFF FMD Contingency Plan revised:–No major changes.–Included warnings that important elements nowcontravened European legislation and should beignored.–Included inaccurate information, e.g., about hiringheavy equipment from National Rivers Authority(abolished in 1996)–Assumed worst outbreak would involve amaximum of 30 cases, which could be handled bya couple of dozen staff.
Warnings & Predictions: •Sept, 2000: ‘Expert Elicitation Workshop on the Risk ofIntroduction of FMD to Europe’, Bulgaria:–John Ryan identified a combination of three major factors ina Casandra warning of imminent danger:•Intensified farming•Increased animal movements•Virulent new strain–Nick Knowles, IAH, Pirbright, UK showed that the FMDv PanAsia type O had infected numerous countries that had beenfree for decades … “a major threat.”
Warnings & Predictions: •Ongoing lurking problem:–While MAFF was paying out $ 3 billion* insubsidies each year, it had no accurate list offarms or farmers.–No idea of the precise location of the 35,500 farmswith livestock.•February 2001: Bobby Waugh’s pigs at BurnsideFarm, Haddon-on-the-Wall–after an extended period of local council concernas to their welfare–acquired FMD, probably from swill from localrestaurants, in early February.–16 sheep in neighbouring farm sent to Hexhamand Longtown Markets during 13 – 20
Monday, February 19 •Craig Kirby, MRCVS, noticed some oddlesions in a pen of sows at ChealeMeats.•Kirby shut down the abattoir and calledhis local MAFF divisional office.•Initial tracing had 600 potential sources.