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Westhampton Beach High School 6 th Science Symposium at the

Westhampton Beach High School 6 th Science Symposium at the Westhampton Beach Performing Arts Center May 11, 2006 Climate Change, Katrina, and us ! (or: why do we need to care about disasters ?) Klaus Jacob <jacob@ldeo.columbia.edu>

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Westhampton Beach High School 6 th Science Symposium at the

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  1. Westhampton Beach High School 6th Science Symposium at the Westhampton Beach Performing Arts Center May 11, 2006 Climate Change, Katrina, and us ! (or: why do we need to care about disasters ?) Klaus Jacob <jacob@ldeo.columbia.edu> Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Palisades NY

  2. How, the heck, did I get involved with Disasters ?

  3. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods

  4. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sciences

  5. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sc. • Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. – B.S.

  6. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sc. • Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. – B.S • M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP - Learned English

  7. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sc. • Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. – B.S • M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP • Earthquakes & Plate Tectonics PhD

  8. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sc. • Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. – B.S • M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP • Earthquakes & Plate Tectonics PhD • Columbia post-doc / long 1 year = 38 years !

  9. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sc. • Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. – B.S • M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP • Earthquakes & Plate Tectonics PhD • Columbia post-doc / long 1 year = 38 years ! • Pakistan: Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes

  10. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sc. • Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. – B.S • M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP • Earthquakes & Plate Tectonics PhD • Columbia post-doc / long 1 year = 38 years ! • Pakistan: Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes • Alaska: Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals

  11. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sc. • Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. – B.S • M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP • Earthquakes & Plate Tectonics PhD • Columbia post-doc / long 1 year = 38 years ! • Pakistan: Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes • Alaska: Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals • NYC Equ.Eng.+Seismic Building Code – 11 years

  12. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sc. • Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. – B.S • M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP • Earthquakes & Plate Tectonics PhD • Columbia post-doc / long 1 year = 38 years ! • Pakistan: Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes • Alaska: Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals • NYC Equ.Eng.+Seismic Building Code – 11 years • NY Equ. Loss study / NYSEMO T.A.C. Chair

  13. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sc. • Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. – B.S • M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP • Earthquakes & Plate Tectonics PhD • Columbia post-doc / long 1 year = 38 years ! • Pakistan: Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes • Alaska: Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals • NYC Equ.Eng.+Seismic Building Code – 11 years • NY Equ. Loss study / NYSEMO T.A.C. Chair • Climate Change Impact on NYC / SLR Infrstr.

  14. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sc. • Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. – B.S • M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP • Earthquakes & Plate Tectonics PhD • Columbia post-doc / long 1 year = 38 years ! • Pakistan: Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes • Alaska: Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals • NYC Equ.Eng.+Seismic Building Code – 11 years • NY Equ. Loss study / NYSEMO T.A.C. Chair • Climate Change Impact on NYC / SLR Infrstr. • Col.Univ. Earth Institute/Urban Planning/SIPA: • Disaster-resilient Caracas, Istanbul, Accra, Singapore, New Orleans

  15. How did I get involved with Disasters ? • As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods • High School: Failed in English – Bio/Earth Sc. • Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. – B.S • M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP • Earthquakes & Plate Tectonics PhD • Columbia post-doc / long 1 year = 38 years ! • Pakistan: Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes • Alaska: Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals • NYC Equ.Eng.+Seismic Building Code – 11 years • NY Equ. Loss study / NYSEMO T.A.C. Chair • Climate Change Impact on NYC / SLR Infrstr. • Col.Univ. Earth Institute/Urban Planning/SIPA: • Disaster-resilient Caracas, Istanbul, Accra, Singapore, New Orleans • Lessons: -- Get Good Basic Education • – Travel the World / Keep your Options open • -- Never know what the Future holds.

  16. The Historian - Philosopher Will Durant (1885-1981) wrote: "Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice."

  17. Source: Jim Hansen, NASA/GISS: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/

  18. CO2 PPM 360 340 320 300 280 260

  19. Climate Change, Ocean Temperature & Hurricanes

  20. Storm distribution with Present atmosphere. Storm distribution with CO2- rich, warmer atmosphere.

  21. HurricaneKatrina - Some Facts & Numbers: • Aug 30, 2005, Category ~ 4 Hurricane • ~ 1,300 Confirmed Dead, • 2.5 Million Households apply for FEMA relief • ~0.4 Million Displaced in 4 States (~290k in Louisiana) • Loss of Jobs in Louisiana: ~ 400,000 • Insured Losses: ~ $ 34.4 Billion • Federal Funds Authorized so far: $ 62 Billion • Total Economic Loss ~> $100 Billion (Estim.) • Failed Louisiana Congressional Delegation Request : • Katrina Disaster Relief and Economic Recovery Act • ($ 250Billion Estim.) • Comparison: • 4 Years Afghan/Iraq War > $ 200 Billion

  22. Above MSL Below MSL Bathymetry (in meters)

  23. Local Mean Sea Level Trend (in meters) Grand Isle, Louisiana The mean sea level trend is 9.85 millimeters/year (3.23 feet/century) with a standard error of 0.35 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1947 to 1999. • m • 0.6 • 0.3 • 0.0 • -0.3 • -0.6 , LA Local Rate of Sea Level Rise (includes delta subsidence): ~ 1 cm/y or ~ 1 m/century

  24. Lessons (to be) Learned from Katrina: • Mississippi Delta and New Orleans subside currently at a rate of ~3 ft per century (1cm/yr) . By the year 2100 this rate will increase to about 5 ft/century (1.5 cm/yr) due to Global Warming. • Storm-surge frequency will increase 3 to of 10 times. • The frequency of intense Hurricanes (category 4 and 5) is likely to increase. • Dams and Levees would have to grow in height (and width at their base) with time, with major consequences for urban land use planning & zoning. • Therefore: Rebuilding of New Orleans should ideally be fixed to sea-level rather than to the sinking ground. This would require novel storm-proof engineering of “mega-floats” with flexible connections to infrastructure systems.=> Prepare for this LONG-TERM solution NOW.

  25. Katrina Lessons (continued): • Hurricane Forecasting is Well Developed, but • Communicating Uncertainties will need Refinement. • Statistical Models of Hurricane Frequency & • Strength, and of Coastal Storm Surge Heights / • Frequency will need rethinking in relation to: • Climate Change / Global Warming / Sea Level Rise • Land Subsidence • Natural Protections (Barrier Islands, Mangroves, • Wetlands) • New Flood Zone Maps and Code Regulations • Coastal Demographic Trends and Current Coastal • Land use are Unsustainable (nation-wide).

  26. In the Northern Hemisphere the “Right Arm” of the Hurricane has Higher Windsand Higher Coastal Storm Surges than the “Left Arm”. Wind Speed at the “Right Arm”= (Vortex Velocity+ Forward Speed of Storm System) Wind Speed at the “Left Arm” = ( Vortex Velocity- Forward Speed of Storm System). Coastal Storm Surge Height = Low Atmospheric Pressure Sea Surface Bulge ± (Wind Shear Coastal “Pileup” and Wave Effects).

  27. Hurricane Floyd, Sept. 1999

  28. “Worst Case Track” to hit NYC

  29. S-S Category 4 storms could have inundations up to 30 ft (10m) above mean sea level NYC Storm Surge Inundation Map for “SLOSH” Model Worst-Case Hurricane Tracks, Color Coded By Saffir-Simpson Categories 1-4(Source: http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/ )

  30. Long Island Sound Paleo-Sea Level Rise Data for the last 2000 years

  31. for NYC 500 50 5

  32. 0 10

  33. Hurricane Category: None.

  34. Hurricane Category: 1

  35. Hurricane Category: 2

  36. Hurricane Category: 3

  37. Hurricane Category: 4

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