Global aims -> Policies in regions

1. Global aims ->Policies in regions Patricia Osseweijer 21 June 2013 p.osseweijer@tudelft.nl

2. The Petrochemical Period: 1900 - ? maisloof bagasse • focus on quality & safety • centralised production • multinationals • patent protected • few big owners

3. Biobased: • focus on economic feasibility & sustainability • decentralised production • role for small owners • different economy of scale?

4. Challenges • Climate Change • Growing population • Depletion of rare resources • Loss of biodiversity • Increasing waste • … and local development!

5. Electric cars the solution?

6. We need Or?

7. Global drivers for innovation • Focus on economy & environmental sustainability • Society versus industry and policy: public debates • Importance of integral assessment • Importance showing local social development • Importance to connect social sciences to tech sciences

8. Cramer criteria for sustainability 6 Themes: • Greenhouse gas emissions; • Competition with food and other local applications; • Biodiversity; • Environment; • Prosperity; and • Social Well-being Measurable standards & non-measurable general concepts Ismail, M., & Rossi, A. 2010. A Compilation of Bioenergy Sustainability Initiatives. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO)

9. Conclusions (2) • We need policies to implement sustainablebiofuels • Effective policies depend on public and stakeholdersupport

10. Perceptions: Biofuels causing hunger?

11. Causal relations?Food prices, climate linked to civil conflicts Source: Hsiang et al., Nature 2011

12. Major societal debates* • Biofuels versus food • Sustainability of biofuels and bio-energy • Marketisation and commodification of nature (Nature Inc. -- is nature for sale?) • Scale debate (economy of scale vs. ‘small is beautiful’) • Precautionary principles vs. learning by doing • Land, water, resource grabbing -- neo-colonisation debate * F. Mukhtarov, 2012 (forthcoming)

13. Policies and support • In public debates: • Rational quantified data on environmental impact • = answer emotional concerns • What is good? • Moral concepts • Cultural differences • Public emotions

14. From debates: Four key ethical concepts • Sustainability • What is sustainable? • Trust and confidence • Who to trust and who takes initiative? • Naturalness • Value of nature and ‘natural ingredients’ • Just distribution • Is it fair and does it give value to all?

15. Summary • Global implementation of sustainablebioeconomyrequires • Strong policies • Supported by aligned non-conflicting regulations • Based on betterpredictivemodelsand cascade use • Increasedcertainty in models: technological change and 2nd generation, yields, R&D down (last decade), learning effects, public acceptance including for example GMOs • Operationalisation of sustainability • Environmental, social and economic • Public and stakeholder agreement • Identifying common grounds • Effective education, communication & impact evaluation • Understanding worldviews and emotions

17. Macro-economic studies indicate*: • With current oil price biofuels not competitive (except Brazil?) • Shale gas and economic situation is challenging this even further • Depends strongly on fossil price and biofuel policies • Volume dependent on policies/directives, such as subsidies forfossilsand EU directive • Cascade model for efficient use biomass more competitive and sustainable! But requires novel collaborations and level playing field • When economic feasible for large demands: than effect on food price! * Hans van Meijl, LEI-WUR

18. Sustainability is complex • Durable, biodegradable, environmentally friendly, fair, non-GM, organic, economically viable, natural, … Both: measurable specific standards AND unmeasurable general concepts

19. Sustainable development • Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Brundlandt definition, 1987) • Looking for a balance between what one desires and what is possible, between human activity and the carrying capacity of the system “Earth” and the repairing capacity of this system (VN World Commission on Sustainable Development, 1987)

20. Social & Environmental: A safe and just space for humanity Oxfam, 2012

21. Three components of sustainability • Environment (planet) • Economics (profit) • Social aspects (people)

22. Outline • What is ‘sustainability’? • Factors of sustainability and its measurement • Reporting sustainability • Importance of sustainability proposition • Elements of a successful pitch

23. 9 principles ⱱ • GHG balance of production chain and application of biomass must be positive; • Biomass production must not be at expense of important carbon sinks in vegetation and soil; • Production of biomass for energy must not endanger food supply and local biomass applications (energy supply, medicines and building materials); • Biomass production must not affect protected or vulnerable biodiversity and will, where possible, have to strengthen biodiversity; • In production and processing of biomass soil and soil quality are retained or improved; • In production and processing of biomass ground and surface water must not be depleted and water quality must be maintained or improved; • In production and processing of biomass air quality must be maintained or improved; • Production of biomass must contribute towards local prosperity; and • Production of biomass must contribute towards social well-being of employees and local population.

24. Environment • Life Cycle Assessment only gives limited picture and is as good as the figures that are put in! See Blackboard and http://www.rivm.nl/Onderwerpen/Onderwerpen/L/Life_Cycle_Assessment_LCA/LCA/Hoe_werkt_LCA • Issues in environmental impact assessment: • Parameters under discussion related to biorenewablefeedstocks: • Calculation for different crops: context dependent (soil/efficiency) • Calculation for indirect land use changes • Measurement for biodiversity • Measurement for water foot print • Competing claims for land and resources

26. Information* is incomplete and uncertain … … yet this should not delay development and implementation of proactive biorenewables strategies * data and scenario’s don’t expect consensus… predicted global fossil CO2 emissions Source: W. Sinke (ECN)

27. Economics (next lecture) • Calculation of NPV and IRR • Issues in economic impact assessment: • Effect of policies • Effect of markets, new usage of resources • Effect of alternatives (cheap shale gas!) • Effect of time scales for investment and learning effects • Effect of context: logistics! • Effect of collaboration in the chain

28. Social factors • Employment (along the whole chain) • Food security (local versus global effects) • Social well being (local communities and national increase) Issues in social impact assessment: • Food prices: speculation? land use? local storage facilities? • Employment: availability of training & education • Cultural issues: traditions, practises, motivation for change! • Ethical issues: moral frameworks (worldviews), acceptance of tech applications, equity in distribution of wealth • Infrastructure: availability of organisation structures such as cooperatives • Governance: communication, perception, involvement, trust

29. Landgrab

30. Stakeholder’s visual social representations of a Bio-Based Economy ‘aim to make something unfamiliar familiar even unfamiliarity itself’ (Moscovici 1984) Represented in themata of: Sustainability First generation biofuels Process and its products Consequences Emotionally objectified: + Hope, enthusiasm, compassion - Fear, anger, frustration Representation depends on stakeholder and context Sleenhoff, S. & P. Osseweijer (2013) What is a bio-based economy? A study of visual social representations of a bio-based economy (forthcoming)

31. Outline • What is ‘sustainability’? • Factors of sustainability and its measurement • Reporting sustainability • Importance of sustainability proposition • Elements of a successful pitch

32. Top 5 indicators forsustainability in industry * * Olenyi, Based on interviews, comparative study. Forthcoming

33. Preliminary results*, certification and labelling • Of the low percentage of certified biofuels, social criteria play a minor role • Industry representative priorities on environmental, not social aspects • Sustainability attitudes and certification might follow media hypes and stakeholder pressure instead of scientific priorities (e.g. biodiversityseemsunderrepresented) * S. Olenyi, Based on interviews and public survey, comparative study. Forthcoming

34. Reporting sustainability • https://www.globalreporting.org/resourcelibrary/G3.1-Quick-Reference-Sheet.pdf • 50 criteria with indicators on how to measure

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37. Outline • What is ‘sustainability’? • Factors of sustainability and its measurement • Reporting sustainability • Importance of sustainability proposition • Elements of a successful pitch

38. Sustainability: a major player? • Sustainability is a complex issue • High level of uncertainty and difficult to measure • Hence: Perceptions can be major show-stopper • Examples are: Barendrecht CO2 storage and discussion on biofuels blending rates in biofuels • Risk of innovation and investment! • Trust is a large component

39. Example from NGO Oxfam Novib • Practice: • Sustainability criteria, such as Cramer criteria not used by politicians and companies • Agreements inclRSB only marginally implemented • Volume of advanced (2nd generation) biofuels disappointing • Climate effect worse than expected ACTION! Oxfam Novib: started campaign* “EU Biofuel target could feed 127 M people!” * http://www.oxfam.com

40. Challenges on policies: public support

41. What do we know about support? Microsociety 2030: a public qualititative study (NL) 4 Public meetings with lay panel (2012-2013)* Biobased = unknown to public ++ association; but coloured by (partial) influences Bioresources: ++; Bioenergy: - - • People do not believe in limited oil Circular economy: ++; ‘rent-society: divided • Recycling is ok; Not ‘hiring’ of resources Own contribution? scepticism • ‘far away’; does it matter? • Government/industry is put in lead * Van der Veen et al., My2030s, Burgers over de Biobased Economy, 2013

42. Conclusions • Complex science • High level of uncertainty & predictability • Social indicators are important • Science and techno fixes not always trusted • Different worldviews > define support • Different emotions > define perceptions • Insight can: • stimulate self-reflexivity among stakeholders • Pave way to common support • facilitate more reflexive policy-making

43. Outline • What is ‘sustainability’? • Factors of sustainability and its measurement • Reporting sustainability • Importance of sustainability proposition • Elements of a successful pitch

44. Criteria of sustainability • Production/use of resources;+ what are the consequences/replacements? • Sustainability of the process • Employment • Quality • Costs • Safety, in production and use • Moral acceptability • Public Acceptance

45. Criteria of sustainability • Sustainability of the process Raw materials: production, soil quality, N/P balances, GHG, … CO2, waste streams and their re-use, water, energy, transport,… Products: transport, storage, use, end-of-life/recycling,…

46. See A. Straathof; BPI, Oct 2012 L. Luo, E. van der Voet en G. Huppes, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13 (2009) 1613-1619 Blackbaord

47. And… beyond Life Cycle Assessment http://www.ecospheres.com/ecostep.html

48. But: not so easy • Competing claims • Missing facts • Perceptions and myths and…

49. Back to economics!

50. Understanding is importantand marketing is key! • Make an overall proposition on sustainability • Calculate as best as possible • Integrate all arguments in ‘design proposition’ • Present it in an understandable way