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Panel Update January 10 th , 2007

Panel Update January 10 th , 2007. Background & Objective. Background Two significant developments mark the commencement of the Year 2007 Expansion of the TAM Panel & The Conditional Access System implementation in the CAS-mandated areas of Mumbai, Delhi & Kolkatta

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Panel Update January 10 th , 2007

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  1. Panel UpdateJanuary 10th, 2007

  2. Background & Objective • Background • Two significant developments mark the commencement of the Year 2007 • Expansion of the TAM Panel & • The Conditional Access System implementation in the CAS-mandated areas of Mumbai, Delhi & Kolkatta • Both the above developments would raise questions and could give rise to concerns • Objective • This document is an attempt to help you get a grasp of the two developments

  3. Panel Expansion Why & How?

  4. The Coverage Dilemma • Over the years, this has been one of the most critical and frequently explored topics • Coverage is determined by.. • The TV Universe spread and profile • The desired level of measurement (how finely users will want to slice the data) • The investments stake-holders are comfortable making • The JIB-appointed Research Design Sub-Committee (RDSC) had, way back in 2002-3 explored the coverage dilemma & based on the above stated parameters, concluded… • TAM should expand to cover Urban, Class I towns • If we dwell into the NRS 2006 TV Universe, some interesting facts emerge..

  5. The Urban Class I towns, account for 75% of Urban TV Homes & 77% of Urban C&S Homes The Urban Class I towns as a cluster, have a 83% TV Penetration & a 78% Cable Penetration NRS 2006 – The TV Universe Both of the above facts in combination, make the Urban Class I towns an extremely prudent, optimized coverage for the TAM service TV Penetration = (TV Homes/Total Homes) *100 ; C&S Penetration = (C&S Homes/TV Homes)*100

  6. WHY… expand the TAM Panel? • Any panel, whether it is for measuring TV habits or product consumption is constructed to represent a universe (or a section thereof) • A panel therefore needs to be aligned periodically, to represent the universe adequately • The periodicity (of the panel alignment) is determined by • The availability of a Universe Establishment study (in the TAM case – the TV Establishment Survey, which is conducted as a rider on the NRS) & • The quantum of change in the universe • In matured markets, panel alignments are few and far in-between as the changes in the universe will not be of significant proportions – the Indian TV marketplace on the other hand, continues to rapidly evolve • As the panel alignment is largely dictated by the quantum of change observed in the universe, let us explore this in greater detail…

  7. On an All India level… Mn Hhs Mn Hhs 82 Mn 41 Mn 22 Mn + 67% +35% + 121% + 27 Mn + 29 Mn + 27 Mn 112 Mn 68 Mn 49 Mn Source : NRS

  8. Within Urban, Class I towns…

  9. 21% Growth in TV owning & 46% Growth in C&S Households TV Households 23% Growth 21% Growth C&S Households 46% Growth 50% Growth Source : NRS *Penetration

  10. The Growth is also significantly different across SEC… In 2006, NRS 46% Growth 62% Growth 56% Growth 31% Growth 41% Growth Source : NRS

  11. C&S , Color TV and Remote penetration across markets has also shown significant changes

  12. 79% CS penetration at All India Level, And Atleast 8 TAM markets cross 90% CS penetration

  13. 25 of 26 Markets above the 75% Color TV penetration mark Source : NRS 2002 and 2006

  14. 85% Remote penetration at All India Level within C&S homes…

  15. The TV landscape has seen rapid changes… • Color TV penetration has gone up to 88% (from 65% in 2002) in 2006 • The Remote ownership has gone up to 85% (from 65% in 2002) within C&S • Avg Household size has come down from 5.20 in 2002 to 5.02 in 2006 • Market Wise Analysis show significant differences • 16 of 26 TAM markets have greater than 75% of CS penetration (8 markets have more than 90% CS penetration) • 22 of 26 markets exhibit more than 10% growth in Color TV penetration (Max being 26% & 14 markets with greater than 90% color TV penetration) • Average household size differs across markets 6.1 for UP 0.1-1 Mn while 4.2 for TN 1 Mn+ • The market strata adds towns across states, with the nature of the town cluster changing its form & constituency

  16. And What has happened on the Consumer Behavior front… 325+ TV stations & Fragmentation is on a Rise

  17. No of Channels contributing to 80% of viewership has steadily been rising across years…

  18. And the dependence on Top 5 channels has been coming down…

  19. The Viewership differences are highlighted across the different SEC’s

  20. And as a result, specific Program TVR continue to slide down……. Special content, the way to go! Source: TAM Peoplemeter System TG : CS 4+ Market: Hindi Speaking

  21. The Expansion Design!!! And what makes it a mammoth of an exercise!

  22. A quick measure of the mammoth task • DESIGN • Town Selection Moving from 70 to 148 towns, a 100% inc! • Meters  Moving from 4800 to 7000 meters, a 50% inc! • IMPLEMENTATION • TechnologyMoving from Analog to Digital • Data Processing Moving from 22,000 to 35,000 respondents • Time Plan By Jan 1st 2007! • USER IMPLICATIONS Smooth Migration & Expansion

  23. Why the additional towns…? • The need for additional towns has been driven by three predominant factors – • A significant number of towns have migrated across population strata (e.g. The number of towns in Urban Class I increased from 300, as per NRS 2002 to 388, as per NRS 2005) • Our mandate is to sample all class I towns, hence these towns need to be individually sampled • To ensure adequate representative sample towns for smaller strata, a statistical analysis indicated a need for further addition of towns (with sampling controls at the 5-10L, 2-5L & 1-2L town stratums respectively) • Given the large & ‘new TV consuming segment’ highlighted by the TV Establishment Survey, broadcasters & advertisers will require to study this set in much greater detail => only possible if a greater sample with enhanced statistical representation is made available

  24. Overall Sampling… • Overall Sample Size increase by 50% • Metro Sample jump up by 15% • Hindi Speaking Markets up 72% • East increases 59% • South increases 31% • New Sample Design splits 1-5L stratum as 1-2L and 2-5L for better control • New States like Chattisgarh, Uttaranchal sampled & reported within earlier (MP & UP) definitions as MP+ & UP+ respectively • Coverage remaining the same, WB & Rajasthan add 2 stratums (1Mn+, in addition to 0.1-1Mn)

  25. Town Selection How has this changed?

  26. How have Population Strata changed? Figs indicates No of towns in indicated Population Stratum

  27. What are the implications on Town selection? • Cover larger no of towns to represent existing Markets and… • No. of towns representing per State go up – Avg. 12 towns • Total towns – 148 towns (142 towns + 6 Mega Metros) • Include new population strata in some states which have emerged

  28. The towns are also selected to account for the SCRs’…

  29. Home Selection How has this changed?

  30. How are the homes selected…? • Homes are selected through a statistical method that ensures the homes adequately represent the market/stratum • Involves the following steps – • Statistical analysis is undertaken to identify factors that influence TV viewing • The factors are further categorized into two broad ‘controls’ • Primary : Most influential factors. Maintained at each inter-locking level basis ( 4 SEC x C&S/Terr x 4 Age Groups x 2 Genders) • Secondary : Lesser influencing factors. Maintained at city/stratum level • This statistical approach results in stratifying the sample, ensuring robust city/stratum television viewing estimation

  31. The ‘Primary’ & ‘Secondary’ controls… Presence of kids in the age-bands • 4-9 years & • 10-14 years New Secondary parameter introduced as control variable while expanding panel

  32. Sample Distribution (Homes)

  33. Why the technology upgrade (analog->digital)? • With the government granting DTH rights and with the long pending implementation of CAS, it was critical to be ‘future-ready’ • The deployment of TVM5 Digital meters, does not in any manner hamper/alter viewing of an analog source, hence only has an obvious plus • The metro markets have been increasingly witnessing a surge of • Plasma/LCD televisions, making the homes owning these type of sets more sensitive to insertion of frequency monitoring probes from the rear of the TV & • VCD/DVD release of movies sooner than in the past, thus the measurement of viewing these devices gaining importance • TVM5 is a non-intrusive meter (probes on & not in the TV, monitor frequency watched) & • Can also attribute viewing to sources like DVD/VCD players & game consoles

  34. The New Universe Sizes… • The TAM Universe is a projected 2007 universe basis… • The NRS 2006 TV universe plus • Growth rate applied for 2007 (computed from the CAGR witnessed by each stratum from census 2001 over 1991)

  35. Post-CAS/Digital Regime

  36. What proportion of C&S homes come under CAS? • Only 20% of city C&S homes come under CAS Zone 1 Mumbai ~16% Delhi ~ 23% Calcutta ~ 21%

  37. TAM is CAS/Digital compliant… • TAM is conducting a periodic TV Establishment Study • Will help in factually ascertaining off-take of new delivery platforms • Will help in generation of profiles • Will indicate what ‘weight’ this distribution platform should carry • TAM has a technology-hybrid (analog + digital), device neutral & self-reliant metering solution • TAM, anticipating the next era of broadcast has already deployed state-of-the-art TVM5 meters in all 6 metros • TVM5 can measure analog as well as digitally-transmitted channels • This metering solution will work independent of broadcast/distribution companies – critical for 100% coverage of viewing & security

  38. How do the TVM5 Digital meters work? • Picks data packets encoded within digital signals • Non intrusive on TV set • Compatible with • DTH • CAS • IPTV • Gaming device • Any kind of TV • Plasma TV • LCD TV • HDTV • Normal TV set • (Col & B/W)

  39. The TV Establishment Surveys • TAM will continue to ride on the NRS for the Universe profiles, at a pan-India level • TAM conducted a DTH penetration study in Feb/Mar 2006 which… • Established our ability to conduct a pan-India survey to estimate DTH penetration robustly • Revealed the profile of DTH subscribers, indicating a need to explore setting up of an independent DTH panel • TAM has initiated a STB (CAS & DTH) penetration survey (last week), in the CAS-mandated areas of the 3 metros • Results will be available to TAM by Jan-end • Will be shared with the industry immediately • Planned to be under-taken every month in the first quarter, middle month of each quarter there-after

  40. How is TAM ensuring representation of CAS/DTH homes? • Rate of adoption of CAS in the universe will be matched by the Rate of adoption of CAS within the panel – a self balance • CAS penetration study by TAM ready in January end • a) CAS Penetration levels – STB already installed • b) Profile of CAS adopters eg. SEC • c) Intention to get an STB installed • d) Channels received • Panel will further get aligned using this study to capture data among CAS/DTH Present panel has already homes with CAS/DTH connections

  41. Accounting for CAS in the TAM panel… • Will be driven by the penetration of this platform in a reporting stratum… • IF, less than or equal to 5% • No purposive sampling or reporting. Panel will easily comprise this proportion, reporting will not be split for CAS (under C&S Homes) • IF, between 6 – 15% • Panel will be aligned to have a proportionate number of homes • Reporting will not be split for individual analysis • IF, greater than or equal to 16% • Panel will be boosted for the proportions to be available for separate analysis • These were the norms that were set by the JIB RDSC, that TAM followed religiously with the advent of C&S (Deja-vu!)

  42. What about DTH…? • DTH penetration will also be estimated by the CAS-penetration survey (currently, in-field) • Limited to the CAS-mandated areas in the 3-metros • TAM is initiating a pan-India DTH penetration study • Fieldwork Period : Feb/Mar 2007 • Reporting : End-Apr 2007 • Set the ball-in-motion for an independent panel (if the profiles appear similar to those from the prior establishment survey) • The establishment survey will be undertaken at a pan-India level, every mid-month of a quarter • Reporting norm for DTH will be identical to the one proposed earlier (at respective penetration thresholds), within the existing market strata

  43. What happens to Measurement in Multi TV homes? • In all homes with Multi TV sets • Both/all TV sets are metered • Meters are attached to TV sets with all combinations • One TV set with C&S connection, the other with Terrestrial TV • Both TV sets with C&S connection • One TV set with CAS, the other with FTA cable connection • One TV set with CAS connection, the other TV set with Terrestrial TV

  44. For any further information/clarification…. Helpline – (022) 6653 1266 OR Call your TAM Client Solutions Contact

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