Nobuo Mimura Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science Ibaraki University/IR3S

1. International Symposium “Cities at Risk” Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Vulnerability Nobuo Mimura Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science Ibaraki University/IR3S

2. Contents of Presentation 1. Global and Regional Picture - Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise 2. Local and Individual Pictures - Mangrove erosion in Thailand - Cyclones in Bangladesh - Tsunami in Maldives - Coastal Protection in Tokyo 3. Challenges

3. 1. Global and Regional Picture –Climate Change and Sea-Level (IPCC AR4, 2007)

4. Global Mean Sea-Level - 17cm rise for the past 100 yrs - Present speed of SLR is 3.2 mm/yr. - In a long tem, collapse of Greenland ice sheet may induce 2-7m SLR. (IPCC WGI AR4, 2007)

5. Temperature Rise (2071~2100)

7. Tropical Cyclones 1949-2007

8. Estimated Typhoon Parameters Lowest Center Pressure Maximum Wind Velocity Lowest Cent. Press. [hPa] - - - - - - - - - 860 880 900 920 940 960 980 1000 860 880 900 920 940 960 980 1000 1013 Maximum Wind Vel. [m/s] 17 20 30 40 50 60 20 30 40 50 60 - - - - - -

9. Severity of Typhoon Effect (Hot Spots) Severity Rank１ Rank２ Rank３ Rank４ Rank５ Rank６ Rank７ Rank８ Rank９

10. Inundation by Local HWL(Tide)

11. Inundation by Local HWL + SLR 59cm

12. Inundation by Local HWL + SLR 59cm + 100yr Strom Surge Asia 362 million people (10.2% of 2000 pop.)

13. Population Growth in Asia

14. Vulnerability of Maga-deltas ・Several millions more people will be flooded annually. ・Proactive and planned adaptation is necessary. Extreme: >A million（by 2050） High:50 K to one million Medium： 5K to 50 K （IPCC WGII AR4, 2007）

15. 2. Individual Pictures Case-1 Erosion of Mangrove in Thailand

16. Landsat image around river mouth of Chaophraya

19. Erosion at the front

20. Land Subsidence in Bangkok Source:Somkid(2002)

21. Case-2 Tropical Cyclones in Bangladesh

22. History of Cyclone Damages

23. Combining Early Warning System and Hard Measures Cyclone Shelter (Chittagong Port City )

24. Evacuation Road to a Cyclone Shelter

25. Coastal Dike

26. Case-3 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami - Coastal vulnerability and countermeasures (News Week Japanese1/12)

27. Male Island

28. (Preliminary Report of Survey Team, JSCE, April 2005)

29. 埋め立て地と浸水地域の分布　　(Preliminary Report of Survey Team, JSCE, April 2005)

30. Male Island

31. Case-4 Coastal Protection in Tokyo

32. Increased Population at Risk in Tokyo Affected Pop (million) HWL 2.3 HWL+SLR 3.2 HWL+SLR+SS4.2

33. History of Flood Damage in Japan Dead/Missing

34. Changes in Death Rate Due to Natural Disaster (1945～1990) Death Rate (Dead/Population) Year

35. 3. Challenges 1. Asian cities in low-lying deltas will be increasingly at risk. - Impacts of climate change and SLR - Large population growth and development 2. Development policies and city management aim mainly at short-term goals. - Today’s problems - Large portion of today’s investments will be affected by CC/SLR i.e. 10 to 50% of investment to infrastructure such as coastal dikes, loads, bridges, irrigation facilities.

36. 3. How to incorporate the future risk of CC/SLR into today’s management. - Role of adaptation: increase the preparedness with solving today’s problems - Win-Win approach both to present and future problems - Mainstreaming adaptation 4. Major target of adaptation for coastal cities is management of growth. - Impact and vulnerability assessment is the first step. - Regulate migration of population - Incorporate adaptation to CC in to infrastructure construction and city planning

37. Thank you very much!