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North American Drought Briefing for October 2013 and Aug-Oct 2013

North American Drought Briefing for October 2013 and Aug-Oct 2013. Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought. Current Partners. CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang

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North American Drought Briefing for October 2013 and Aug-Oct 2013

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  1. North American Drought Briefingfor October 2013and Aug-Oct 2013 Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

  2. Current Partners CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier MSU: Lifeng Luo USDA: Martha Anderson Web Masters: Joe Harrison RFCs: James Noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur Project Funded by NOAA MAPP, TRACS& NASA

  3. P anomalies over the United States October Dryness: • Dryness over the Southeast and the Pacific Northwest Wetness: • Wet conditions over Dakotas and eastern Texas • September • Dryness over the Southeast, • East Coast, North central • Wetness over the Southwest and Western interior and the PNW.

  4. SPI Overall a wet picture SPI3: • SPI3 shows dryness over Iowa and Wisconsin, California and along the East Coast . • Wet conditions over the Midwest and Colorado basin. SPI6-SPI12: • SPI6 and SPI12 show that drought over California

  5. SM Percentiles Dry: North Central region, California Wet: Midwest Dakotas , Colorado

  6. http://hrsl.arsusda.gov/drought

  7. September Streamflow Percentiles (USGS) Dry: Similar to last month Wet: Dakotas, Colorado Wetness over the Southwest last month returned to normal October

  8. Keetch-Byram Drought Index

  9. Maximum and Minimum Temperature Overall anomalies are weak Tmax Cool: weak negative anomalies over Utah, Dakotas, Eastern Montana and Wyoming. Tmin: very weak

  10. Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Atlantic: 11 TSs ANDREA FERNAND BARRY GABRIELLE CHANTAL EIGHT DORIAN Jerry ERIN Karen Lorenzo Hurricanes:2 Humberto 8-19 Sept Ingrid 12-17 Sep Fcsts OBS Named storms— 13-19 12 Hurricanes---- 6-9 2 Major Hurricanes 3-5 0 Active quiet

  11. Eastern Pacific Hurricanes FcstObs named storms 11-16 12 Hurricanes 5- 8 8 IMPACT Manuel Sep 13-20 Juliette Aug 28-30

  12. No ENSO • Oct 2013 • Warm SSTAs over the North Pacific; • Weak cold anomalies along the west Coast • Weak warm SSTAs over • the tropical North Atlantic • Season • No cold ENSO; • No warm SSTAs over the tropical North Atlantic •  No strong forcing for tropical storms in the Atlantic

  13. Convection over the western Pacific And southern Mexico and Central America • Heavy rainfall over southern Mexico • Positive OLRA over the MDR • Cold ENSO like convection pattern

  14. P anomalies July september October August

  15. Monsoon rainfall July Aug Sept Oct S. Mexico mixed dry very wet wet N. Mexico wet dry wet wet AZNM wet dry wet normal Over the Southwest, above normal rainfall over New Mexico and northern Arizona Northwest Mexico- near normal slightly above Southern Mexico is very wet

  16. AZ Rainfall time series NM New Mexico ---above normal from onset AZ– mixed 25-30N – northwestern Mexico– more rainfall later of the season NW-Mexico

  17. NAME P fcst (JAS) made in May Art Douglas T382 NMME P

  18. Drought Monitor • Drought is much improved in comparison to conditions a year ago • Dry conditions over the western U.S , North Central and Texas • Drought continues over California, and Nevada September 24,2013

  19. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies Negative OLRA from 120-160E July

  20. ENSO Plume FCST –neutral

  21. CPC-IRI ENSO forecast ENSO neutral until next spring

  22. SST FCST (NMME) • December 2013 DJF 2013-14 No ENSO, Warm SSTAs over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

  23. P fcst (NMME) DJF 2013-14 December 2013 Dry over the southern states, wet PNW

  24. Temperature fcst (NMME) December 2013 DJF 2013-14 Overall WARM

  25. T and P fcsts for NDJ 2013 Temp Precip

  26. SPI6 Nov SPI fcsts based on NMMEICs 1-5 Nov SPI6 Dec SPI3 Nov 2013 SPI6 Jan2014 SPI3 Dec 2013

  27. UW ESP Month 1 SM fcst Month 3 lead SM fcst SM Sep UW 2013 11 01 ICs ICs 20131101 3 month accu runpff lead-1 Month 2 lead SM fcst Month 2 SM fcst 27

  28. EMC/Princeton/MSU SM Forecasts IC: 201311 CFSv2-VIC fcst Nov 2013 CFSv2-VIC fcst Dec 2013 CFSv2-VIC fcst Jan 2014

  29. Drought Outlooks Monthly Seasonal

  30. Summary El Niño/La Nina: • ENSO-neutral, warm SSTAs in the North Pacific Current conditions: • Dry: California, East Coast, and the North Central region. • Wet: from the Southwest to Dakotas and Minn. Prediction: • ENSO neutral and warm SSTAs in the North Pacific will persist through winter 2013-14 • Drought over California and East coast will improve in one-two months. • Wetness over the Midwest will continue.

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