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100 Per Cent Renewables Study AEMO Overview Stakeholder Information Forum 28 September 2012

Presented by: Rob Jackson. 100 Per Cent Renewables Study AEMO Overview Stakeholder Information Forum 28 September 2012. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY. 2. OVERVIEW. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY. AEMO to prepare a report on 100% renewable electricity supply scenarios The Report will contain:

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100 Per Cent Renewables Study AEMO Overview Stakeholder Information Forum 28 September 2012

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  1. Presented by:Rob Jackson 100 Per Cent Renewables StudyAEMO OverviewStakeholder Information Forum28 September 2012

  2. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY 2

  3. OVERVIEW

  4. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • AEMO to prepare a report on 100% renewable electricity supply scenarios • The Report will contain: • the generation plant and the major transmission networks required to support each scenario • the estimated capital cost requirements for each scenario based on today’s dollars, and • an indicative estimate of the impact on customer energy prices. 4

  5. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Describe a generation and transmission portfolio that could supply forecast electricity demand in 2030 and 2050 at least-cost under 2 scenarios • => Four cases to be analysed • Just considering electricity supply and demand • NEM only • Maintaining the current reliability standard for the NEM of no more than 0.002% unserved energy (USE). 5

  6. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Market framework: • The study will not address any changes required to the NEM or other market frameworks • Regulatory framework: • Assume the necessary regulatory framework is in place to enable the required build of electricity generation and transmission facilities. These include planning permit processes and market access issues 6

  7. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • The report will not include recommendations based on the results of the study • The report will not include any views as to the viability or likelihood of achieving 100% renewable supply by 2030 or 2050 7

  8. Overall Assumptions

  9. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • No transition path: • Describe 100% renewable scenarios for 2030 and 2050 • Will not include a description of any transition paths to these years • “Least-cost” considers costs of building in that year – akin to building the whole system in one year • However certain assumptions regarding a transition path will be made, such as: • technology development progress leading to technology availability (or not) in 2030 and 2050 • technology cost learning curves (but applied at 2030 and 2050 only) • generation and transmission equipment build-rate limits in the years leading to the target years of 2030 and 2050. 9

  10. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Scenario 1 - Rapid transformation and moderate economic growth • strong progress on reducing technology costs • strong demand-side participation • moderate economic and demand growth • Scenario 2 - Moderate transformation and high economic growth • current trends in reducing technology costs continue • moderate demand-side participation • robust economic and energy demand growth 10

  11. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • What is the demand to meet? • What renewable energy resources and generation technologies are available? • How much of each resource / technology is available? • What is their cost? • What is the diversity and variability of different resources and locations? • What are the operational issues in managing a 100% Renewables system? 11

  12. Demand and Supply Assumptions

  13. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • The demand scenarios are for the electricity sector only • Forecast demand level is very uncertain • Extrapolate demand in line with current AEMO NEFR forecasts • Price elasticity is not well understood when subjecting to large changes – both residential and industry • Reasonable to assume that significant demand reductions will result – voluntary and through innovation • Add in a moderate amount of reductions for energy efficiency • No explicit fuel switching considered • Allowances included for assumed natural uptake of Electric Vehicles 13

  14. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Included: • Wind – onshore and offshore • Solar – PV single-axis tracking • Solar – CST central receiver dual-axis tracking • Geothermal – two types (HSA, EGS) • Wave • Biomass • Hydro (existing) • Demand-side participation included here • Excluded • All fossil fuel (with or without CCS) • Nuclear 14

  15. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Batteries (large scale > 10 MWh) • Biomass solids • Biogas • Compressed air • Molten salt thermal energy (heat) storage • Pumped hydro – existing + retrofit new fresh water (no new large dams) and new seawater 15

  16. NEXT Steps

  17. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY 17

  18. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Modelling • Generation • Storage • Operational Review • Review of modelling results • Amend results if needed • Calculate capital cost requirements for each scenario • Calculate the indicative estimate of the impact on customer energy prices • Considering Wholesale Energy and Transmission only 18

  19. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Assumptions report available on DCCEE webpage • Detailed Supply and Demand reports and data sets available on DCCEE webpage • 100 Per Cent Renewables Report • Draft to be finalised by 31 March 2013 • Final May 2013 19

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