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Kentucky Horticulture Outlook Fall 2003 Tim Woods and Matt Ernst

Kentucky Horticulture Outlook Fall 2003 Tim Woods and Matt Ernst. Agricultural Economics. U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Selected Fresh Produce Crops. Source: July 2003 USDA/ERS Vegetables and Melons Situation and Outlook Yearbook (Table 1). Agricultural Economics.

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Kentucky Horticulture Outlook Fall 2003 Tim Woods and Matt Ernst

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  1. Kentucky Horticulture Outlook Fall 2003Tim Woods and Matt Ernst Agricultural Economics

  2. U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Selected Fresh Produce Crops Source: July 2003 USDA/ERS Vegetables and Melons Situation and Outlook Yearbook (Table 1) Agricultural Economics

  3. Kentucky Produce Marketing Channels Percent selling at least 10% of their produce into given market channel Source: 2001-03 KY Produce Marketing Practices Surveys

  4. KY Cooperative and Wholesale Markets • Co-ops generally saw strong prices • Modest growth in acreage • Continued AD Fund support to develop infrastructure and carry working capital • Management and board challenges • More demonstration programs from UK • Additional $2 million appropriated for on-farm demos, variety development, applied research

  5. KY Vegetable Co-op Acreage Agricultural Economics

  6. Wholesale Beyond the Co-op • More interest in direct-store-delivery by major retailers • Grapes, blackberries, tomatoes, blueberries • Marketing alliances to produce specialty vegetables • Specialty peppers • Specialty root crops, Asian vegetables, herbs

  7. Fruits and Vegetables: Kentucky Gross Farm Sales, 1987-2003 • Co-op sales for 2003: $5-6 million • 60 Farm Bureau CRMs @ $100,000: Another $6 million • 80+ community farmers markets gross sales @$50,000: Another $4 million • Auctions, niche processed products (grapes), wholesale not through co-ops, other direct sales: Another $5-10 million • Major growth since 1997 ? ? Source: USDA/ERS, NASS Ag Census Agricultural Economics

  8. U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Selected Fresh Produce Crops Source: July 2003 USDA/ERS Vegetables and Melons Situation and Outlook Yearbook (Table 1) Agricultural Economics

  9. Wholesale Terminal Market PricesLarge Howden Pumpkins (MI, IL) Source: USDA/AMS Agricultural Economics

  10. U.S. Sweet Corn Shipping Point Prices 1997-2002 and 2003 Source: USDA/ERS, UK Estimates

  11. U.S. Tomato f.o.b. Shipping Point Prices Source: USDA/ERS, UK Estimates

  12. U.S. Tomato Imports Source: USDA/ERS

  13. U.S. Average Farm PricesCabbage 1997-2003 Source: USDA/ERS, UK Estimates

  14. U.S. Average Farm PricesBell Peppers 1997-2003 Source: USDA/ERS, UK Estimates

  15. Challenges in the KY Cantaloupe Deal • Green River Produce Cooperative • Strong marketing alliance • Market entry with big players • Outstanding quality (Castellini’s) • Typical large annual price swings • Net per acre per year has ranged from break-even to $2,000+

  16. Atlanta Cantaloupe Terminal Market Prices½ & 5/9 bu Ctns 12s *****2003 Kentucky Season***** **********Typical Kentucky Season********* Source: USDA/AMS Agricultural Economics

  17. Detroit Cantaloupe Terminal Market Prices½ & 5/9 bu Ctns 12s *****2003 Kentucky Season***** **********Typical Kentucky Season********* Source: USDA/AMS Agricultural Economics

  18. St. Louis Cantaloupe Terminal Market Prices½ & 5/9 bu Ctns 12s *****2003 Kentucky Season***** **********Typical Kentucky Season********* Source: USDA/AMS Agricultural Economics

  19. 2003 Cantaloupe Shipments(10,000 lbs) *****2003 Kentucky Season***** **********Typical Kentucky Season********* Source: USDA/AMS Agricultural Economics

  20. 2003 KY Fruit Season • 400 commercial berry acres—Highest since 1980s • Outstanding small fruit quality, season length & yields • Small fruit seasons 7-10 days behind throughout East/SE • Apple yields at 5-yr high • Excellent tree fruit quality • Strong demand for fresh market peaches, pears, Asian pears

  21. U.S. Grape Vines 1987-2002 Sources: 1987-97: US Ag Census; *2002: USDA/ERS; wineinstitute.org; CA Dept. of Food and Agriculture 2002 estimate includes 1,179,545 acres

  22. Approximate Grape Prices Paid By IN RegionaWineries, 1997-2000$/ton Estimated KY Breakeven Price Per Ton: $650-1050 Source: “Business Planning and Economics of Midwestern Grape Production” Bruce Bordelon, Purdue University, http://viticulture.hort.iastate.edu/wsfeb01/business.html

  23. Value of KY Wholesale Greenhouse & Nursery Sales, 1993-2002 Source: USDA/ERS Floriculture and Nursery Crops Situation and Outlook Yearbook, May 2003. Christmas trees not included. Agricultural Economics

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