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Demographics

Demographics. Final Exam. ECON2000 L1 21-Dec-12 8:30-11:30 LTB Cumulative Bring : Writing materials , calculator , 1 A4 size piece of paper with handwritten notes on both sides Office Hours WR 11-12 Dec . 19-20. Global Imbalances. Link. Savings &Current Account.

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Demographics

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  1. Demographics

  2. Final Exam • ECON2000 L1 21-Dec-12 8:30-11:30 LTB • Cumulative • Bring: Writingmaterials, calculator, 1 A4 sizepiece of paperwithhandwritten notes onbothsides • Office HoursWR 11-12 Dec. 19-20

  3. Global Imbalances Link

  4. Savings &Current Account • Gross National Savings: GNI – Consumption (Publ. + Private) • GDP = Consumption + Gross Capital Formation + Net Exports (Exports – Imports) • GNI = GDP + NFI • GNS – GCF = NX + NFI = Current Account

  5. Population Growth • Abstracting from migration, population growth rates equal crude birth rates less crude death rates.

  6. Birth rate Natural increase Death rate Time Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. The Classic Demographic TransitionModel Link Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

  7. Stages of Demographic Transition • Low Population Growth. High Birth Rates, High Death Rates • Population Growth Explosion. Medical Advances slow mortality rates, high population growth. • Slowing Population Growth. Educational Advances slow birth rates. • Low Population Growth. Low Birth Rates, Low Death Rates

  8. World Development Indicators

  9. World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision Volume II – Demographic Profiles Link Japan

  10. Link Population by age, sex and urban/rural residence Aging Population Structure

  11. Japanese Population

  12. Fertility Rates • Longer-term ratio of average number of children • Replacement Ratio: 2.1 Developed Economy, 2.3 Developing Economy

  13. Fertility Rates

  14. Imbalances

  15. Life-cycle hypothesis – Households prefer smooth spending growth $ Consumption Spending Earnings Prime Saving Years Age

  16. Population Structure and Employment

  17. Implications of Age Structure for Economic Growth • Temporary high savings and high investment. • Period when investment drops more quickly than savings: savings glut, global imbalances. • Low interest rates. • Less innovation

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