Understanding Public Opinion Research & Polling Methods | Forming Political Opinions

2. Chapter 11Public Opinion and Political Socialization

3. Chapter Outline and Learning Objectives Roots of Public Opinion Research LO 11.1: Trace the development of modern public opinion research. Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls LO 11.2: Describe the methods for conducting and analyzing different types of public opinion polls.

4. Chapter Outline and Learning Objectives Shortcomings of Polling LO 11.3: Assess the potential shortcomings of polling. Forming Political Opinions LO 11.4: Analyze the process by which people form political opinions. Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics LO 11.5: Evaluate the effects of public opinion on politics.

5. Roots of Public Opinion ResearchLO 11.1: Trace the development of modern public opinion research. The earliest public opinion Walter Lippmanns’ Public Opinion (1922) The Literary Digest fiasco (1936) Straw polls Samples The Gallup Organization Dewey vs. Truman (1948) National Election Studies To Learning Objectives

6. What three fatal errors did the Literary Digest commit in its polling for the 1936 election? Sampling, timing, and self selection Timing, unfavorable weather conditions, and the war Unfavorable weather conditions, the war, and self selection Unfavorable weather conditions, sampling, and timing Racist data collectors, gender discrimination, and sampling To Learning Objectives LO 11.1

7. What three fatal errors did the Literary Digest commit in its polling for the 1936 election? Sampling, timing, and self selection Timing, unfavorable weather conditions, and the war Unfavorable weather conditions, the war, and self selection Unfavorable weather conditions, sampling, and timing Racist data collectors, gender discrimination, and sampling To Learning Objectives LO 11.1

8. Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion PollsLO 11.2: Describe the methods for conducting and analyzing different types of public opinion polls. Types of Polls Traditional phone polls Entrance polls Exit polls Tracking polls Internet polls Push polls Unscientific To Learning Objectives

9. Conducting Polls Determining content and phrasing the questions Ordering of content Yes/no questions versus allowing nuanced answers Selecting the sample Random sampling Stratified sampling Contacting respondents To Learning Objectives LO 11.2

10. Margin of error +4 Sampling error Results To Learning Objectives LO 11.2 Analyzing the Data

11. ________ polls are the most common method of polling. Text messaging Internet Face-to-face Telephone Straw To Learning Objectives LO 11.2

12. ________ polls are the most common method of polling. Text messaging Internet Face-to-face Telephone Straw To Learning Objectives LO 11.2

13. Limited respondent options V.O. Key Jr. Feeling thermometer Lack of information Screening procedures Difficulty measuring intensity Abortion versus the Electoral College Lack of interest in political issues Foreign policy versus domestic policy To Learning Objectives Shortcomings of PollingLO 11.3: Assess the potential shortcomings of polling.

14. What is a “feeling thermometer”? A statistical tool used to determine margins of error There is no such thing as a feeling thermometer. A product of the Obama campaign to determine crowd enthusiasm An electronic device similar to a lie detector that measures a person’s pulse to determine excitability about an issue Questions used by the National Elections Studies to determine how a person feels about an issue. To Learning Objectives LO 11.3

15. What is a “feeling thermometer”? A statistical tool used to determine margins of error There is no such thing as a feeling thermometer. A product of the Obama campaign to determine crowd enthusiasm An electronic device similar to a lie detector that measures a person’s pulse to determine excitability about an issue Questions used by the National Elections Studies to determine how a person feels about an issue. To Learning Objectives LO 11.3

16. Demographic Characteristics Gender Women generally more liberal Race and ethnicity People of color, generally more liberal Foreign policy, perceptions of government, domestic policy Age Eras born in effect political behavior Religion Many American ideals rooted in Protestant heritage To Learning Objectives Forming Political OpinionsLO 11.4: Analyze the process by which people form political opinions.

17. Family Most influential from birth to age 5 Peers Most influential from middle to high school Peer groups such as the Girl/Boy Scouts School Civics classes Pledge of Allegiance Tocqueville To Learning Objectives LO 11.4 Forming Political Opinions

18. Mass media Television Cues from leaders or opinion makers President Congressional leaders Political knowledge Political illiteracy To Learning Objectives LO 11.4 Forming Political Opinions

19. About ________ viewers watch the Tonight Show or The Daily Show, as watch CNN or FOX News for their news sources. twice as many half as many the same number of five times as many one-tenth as many To Learning Objectives LO 11.4

20. About ________ viewers watch the Tonight Show or The Daily Show, as watch CNN or FOX News for their news sources. twice as many half as many the same number of five times as many one-tenth as many To Learning Objectives LO 11.4

21. May influence the course of public policy The Pew Research Center Monika Lewinsky Social Security To Learning Objectives Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on PoliticsLO 11.5: Evaluate the effects of public opinion on politics.

22. The authors of TheFederalist Papers noted what? “All government rests on public opinion.” “Public opinion is the evil of public policy.” “Public policy should never be affected by public opinion.” “Public opinion is best when it falls on the deaf ears of government.” “All governments should fear public opinion.” To Learning Objectives LO 11.5

23. The authors of TheFederalist Papers noted what? “All government rests on public opinion.” “Public opinion is the evil of public policy.” “Public policy should never be affected by public opinion.” “Public opinion is best when it falls on the deaf ears of government.” “All governments should fear public opinion.” To Learning Objectives LO 11.5

24. To Learning Objectives

25. To Learning Objectives Figure 11.1: How successful has the Gallup Poll been? Back

26. To Learning Objectives Figure 11.2: What does a daily tracking poll look like? Back

27. To Learning Objectives Figure 11.3: Why does question wording matter? Back

28. To Learning Objectives Figure 11.4: What are the ideological self-identifications of first-year college students? Back

29. To Learning Objectives Figure 11.5: How have references to public opinion polls in the news increased over time? Back

30. To Learning Objectives Table 11.1: Do men and women think differently about political issues? Back

31. To Learning Objectives Table 11.2: What is the extent of Americans’ political knowledge? Back