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Social and economic Possibilities: Trade Balance, Job Opportunities and Energy Supply to Rural Areas , Bo Hektor, TallOil AB, Sweden May 17, 2006. Global biomass potentials are large - but need to be developed. Agricultural land: <100- >300 EJ Marginal lands: <60- 150 EJ
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Social and economic Possibilities: Trade Balance, Job Opportunities and Energy Supply to Rural Areas, Bo Hektor, TallOil AB, Sweden May 17, 2006
Global biomass potentials are large - but need to be developed Agricultural land: <100- >300 EJ Marginal lands: <60- 150 EJ Agri residues: 15-70 EJ Forest residues: <30-150 EJ Dung: 5-55 EJ Organic waste: 5 - >50 EJ TOTAL: < 250 - > 500 EJ From IEA Bioenergy Task 40 500 EJ ~ 180 000 TWh Sweden 625 TWh
Lorry 200 km € 20/ton Rail-way 600 km € 20/ton Ocean ship 10 000 km € 20/ton Transport Costs (general example)
Prediction • Therefore, • Russia will not be a dominant supplier of biomass fuels in the export market • (except possibly for a limited time in the near future) • Excellent opportunities to develop a national, regional and local applications for bioenergy
Planning Models for Bioenergy • Provision • Top-down implementation • Market • Supply/demand drivers • Joint Planning and Implementation • “Grass root” drivers
Provision; top-down implementation • National energy corporations • Experts and specialists • Standard technology • Economy of scale (nuclear, large hydro, etc., but not local bio-energy) • Integrated with general policies • “energy is a basic need for people” • “competitive industries need cheap energy”
Market; supply/demand drivers • Energy is looked upon as any other product/service in the market • General market incentives • “Free market” economy • Competition is supposed to lead to • low costs and prices • efficient allocation of resources
Joint Planning and Implementation • Local initiatives and implementation • Fit with local conditions, esp. for heating • Can include slack resources; labour, organization, biomass • Can mobilize entrepreneurship, and acceptance • Options of specific local support incentives • Applied successfully for bioenergy
Jobs and income formation • Replacement of 1000 m3 oil with wood fuels means 4 new jobs (man-year equivalent, Sweden) • Most of the income stays in the local community • Job and income multipliers are high, 2-4.
Flexibility in planning; many options • National policies Local policies • Standardised methods Specific, flexible • High tech Pragmatic, available • Controlled development Organic, independent • Expert solutions Grass root solutions • Neo-classic models Institutional economics • Inform people Mobilise people
Driving modern bioenergy • Reduce oil dependence (1970-) • Avoid nuclear costs and risks (1980-) • Reduce carbon induced climate change (1990-) • Increase security of supply (2000-)
Wood versus OilPrincipal Calculation • 1 barrel oil (70 $) 6,12 GJ • 1 ton wood substance (odt) 17 GJ • 0,47 ton wood(+bark)substance = 1 m3s • 1 m3s(+bark) 8 GJ • 1 m3s/1 barrel oil 1.3 • Energy content of 1m3s 91$ • Price of pulp wood 1m3s 34 $
Thanks for your Attention! Bo Hektor bo.hektor@talloil.se