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2008 Hay and Feedstuff Outlook

2008 Hay and Feedstuff Outlook. J. Ross Pruitt Extension Economist – Livestock Louisiana State University AgCenter. Hay Situation and Outlook. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS. 2007 TOTAL HAY PRODUCTION. Livestock Marketing Information Center

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2008 Hay and Feedstuff Outlook

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  1. 2008 Hay and Feedstuff Outlook J. Ross Pruitt Extension Economist – Livestock Louisiana State University AgCenter 2008 Southern Outlook Conference September 22-24, 2008

  2. Hay Situation and Outlook 2008 Southern Outlook Conference September 22-24, 2008

  3. 2008 Southern Outlook Conference September 22-24, 2008

  4. 2008 Southern Outlook Conference September 22-24, 2008

  5. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

  6. 2007 TOTAL HAY PRODUCTION Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

  7. Livestock Marketing Information Center

  8. 2008 Southern Outlook Conference September 22-24, 2008

  9. 2008 Southern Outlook Conference September 22-24, 2008

  10. 2008 Southern Outlook Conference September 22-24, 2008 Projected Supply, Utilization, and Prices for U.S. Hay

  11. 2008 Southern Outlook Conference September 22-24, 2008 Projected Supply, Utilization, and Prices for U.S. and Southeastern Hay

  12. 2008 Southern Outlook Conference September 22-24, 2008 Projected Supply, Utilization, and Prices for U.S. and Southeastern Hay

  13. Other Feedstuffs

  14. Other Feedstuffs Protein • Soybean meal • Cottonseed meal • DDGS • Whole cottonseed • Corn gluten Energy • Whole cottonseed • Corn grain • DDGS • Corn gluten • Soy hulls

  15. 2008 Southern Outlook Conference September 22-24, 2008 Other Feedstuffs

  16. Other Feedstuffs Situation & Outlook

  17. Other Feedstuffs Situation & Outlook

  18. Other Feedstuffs Situation & Outlook

  19. Other Feedstuffs Situation & Outlook

  20. Implications and Considerations

  21. Following slides exhibit current costs of shipping hay • 550 mile trip from LA to GA • Quoted rate is $5.00/mile • Assumes hay costs $135/ton • Truck can hold 38 bales • Scenario is updated version from last year Hay Cost Economics

  22. Hay Cost Economics

  23. Hay Cost Economics

  24. Comparison of Alternative Feeds

  25. Hay quality questionable due to weather conditions • Decreased fertilizer/herbicide use masked by wetter weather? • Corn prices should moderate but other feeds will be higher. • Producer’s should focus on $/lb. of nutrient not $/lb. of feed. Summary

  26. Presidential election • Overall economy • Strengthening of the dollar • Continuing financial crisis (Bear Sterns, Lehman Bros, AIG, etc.) • Will investors enter commodities more than already have? • Speculators in the futures market • Acreage bidding war • Wheat market • Horse slaughter ban/sale of horses for slaughter Other Factors

  27. Discussion 2008 Southern Outlook Conference September 22-24, 2008

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