A process for resolving conflicts within water-food-energy systems stressed by climate change

1. A process for resolving conflicts within water-food-energy systems stressed by climate change Group 4. The NCAR Nexuses

2. Context Pumping, treatment, distribution Irrigation Generation, cooling, extraction Water quality Biofuels Fertilizers, processing, harvesting

3. Aims • Create a robust framework for coming to agreements within water-food-energy systems stressed by climate change • Apply this framework to two contrasting States: • California (US) and • Gujarat (India) • The framework is intended to be a high level guidance document for policy makers at State level.

4. Decision Support Framework: Structured Decision Making

5. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Applying the framework to California, US Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

6. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

7. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Stakeholders Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

8. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

9. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context • Consult with stakeholders • Consult with experts • Consider previous plans • Research plans in similar locations • Use online tools (e.g., wefnexustool.org Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

10. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Water • Increase water use efficiency • More efficient irrigation techniques via technology and reservoir regulation • Bring freshwater withdrawals in line with supply • Increase groundwater banking Energy • Increase alternative energy production and decarbonize the energy system with decadal targets • Improve energy efficiency with decadal targets • Reduce groundwater pumping during peak energy use periods • Incentivize energy-efficient building practices Food • Incorporate seasonal forecasts to inform crop rotation strategies • Use lower-water crops (GMOs) • Stopping production of high-water use crops (alfalfa) Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

11. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context • Develop an integrated assessment model to test alternative strategies: • Example: Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) & Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) (David Yates @NCAR) • Returns decision relevant variables. • Can perform tests • such as “cost-benefit” • analysis • Test “non-linear” • impacts of combined • alternative choices. Source: Kemp-Benedict (2014) Stockholm Environment Institute Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

12. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Water Increase groundwater banking • Long term payoff, short term expense • Creates buffer for drought years • Economic loss • Stress agricultural system during a wet year • Very expensive (pay to pump twice) Energy Reduce groundwater pumping during peak energy use periods • Reduce cost of water for irrigation • More efficient water use • Less autonomy for farmers Food Stopping production of high-water use crops (alfalfa) • Economic loss • Less autonomy for farmers • Increase in groundwater Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

13. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Thought Example: Alternative: Decarbonize the energy system by increasing hydroelectric power generation. Positive: Increase sustainable energy supply, reduce GHG emissions. Less water going to cool power plants, better for environmental systems. Tradeoff: During drought, hydroelectric power production will decrease. This will stress the energy grid and create tension over water between the energy sector and agriculture sector. CA may not be able to meet GHG emission standards to meet energy and agricultural needs during drought conditions. Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

14. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context This step requires significant input from stakeholders. • With stakeholders, identify whatto monitor, where to monitor, who pays for monitoring, reporting methods and frequency: • Monitoring and evaluation would be carried out by: • state agencies for water management, energy, and agriculture. • community-based organizations • energy companies • Department of Natural Resources operations • local water districts • agricultural organizations Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

15. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Applying the framework to Gujarat, India Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

16. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context • Growth in agricultural groundwater use in selected countries Source: Shah et al (2007) Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

17. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Case study region: Why North-West India? Source: Planning Commission (2007) Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

18. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Case study region: Net vs. Gross sown area in Punjab Source: Indian Agricultural Statistics Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

19. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Case study region: Net irrigated area in Punjab Source: Indian Agricultural Statistics Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

20. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Case study: Energy for Irrigation Pumping - India vs. Gujarat Source: Columbia Water Centre Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

21. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context • IDENTIFYING STAKEHOLDERS • Snowball method • In Gujarat • Government • Agriculture and Cooperation Department • Energy and Petrochemicals Department • Narmada and Water Resources • Water Supply and KalpsarDepartment • Local community/governments • Non-government • Farmers and Agribusiness e.g. FieldFresh • Power companies • Owners/representatives from local factories Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

22. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context • OBJECTIVES • Have adequate and sustainable supply of water, food, and energy for the different sectors in the region at an affordable price and of good quality • Ensure employment and economic development for the region • Reduce risk to climate variability and change • (Reduce amount of greenhouse gases emitted by the energy use in the region) Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

23. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context • MEASURES • Water • Volume of water used by each sector per given time period • Price per liter of water • Chemical concentrations • Food • Calorie intake per person • Variety of food available • Energy and Greenhouse Gasses (GHG) • Measure kWh supplied to each sector • Reliability of energy supply • Atmospheric concentrations of GHG • Amount spent by government on energy subsidies • Employment and Economic Development • Income (or proxies for income) Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

24. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context • Increase efficiency • Train farmers on better agricultural practices (e.g. choice of crops, spacing, drip-irrigation, monitor soil moisture to inform irrigation timing, use of fertilizer) • Implement climate and market monitoring and seasonal forecasting systems • Use economic incentives to reward efficiency • Reduce risks to climate variability and change • Community supported agriculture • Define protocols to allocate water resources in the face of a drought Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

25. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context • Train farmers on better agricultural practices • Reduced chemical concentrations in runoff • Reduced water wastage/increased efficiency • Use a land-surface model • Implement seasonal climate and markets monitoring and forecasting • Reduced impacts of droughts on crop yields • Higher income for farmers • Use land-surface model forced by an established global climate forecast system (e.g. CFSv2) • Use Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) Framework Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

26. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context • Train farmers on better agricultural practices • Water efficiency techniques in the agricultural sector will also reduce energy consumption and GHGs • Requires cooperation and commitment by farmers • Implement seasonal climate and markets monitoring and forecasting • Improved resource management • Can be used by stakeholders across sectors Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

27. Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Clarify the Decision context • Use monthly historical data as baseline to evaluate • Economic gains • Water and energy savings • Food production • Monitoring • Frequency: monthly • Commitment horizon • Methods • Community-based • State-level government agencies Estimate Consequences Evaluate Trade Offs Implement and monitor

28. Discussion

29. Is the framework portable across contexts?

30. Is the framework a useful way to address uncertainties?

31. How does the framework bring in climate change along with other drivers of change?

32. Thanks for listening!