4 th THORPEX –Asia Science Workshop and 9 th ARC meeting Recent Developments in the THORPEX

1. 4th THORPEX –Asia Science Workshop and 9th ARC meeting Recent Developments in the THORPEX Programme Jim Caughey, THORPEX IPO 31 October-3 November 2012, Kunming, China

2. Research priorities and Structure Research Priorities • Global-to-regional influences on the evolution and predictability of weather systems (by Predictability and Dynamic Processes WG) • Global observing-system design and demonstration, Targeting and assimilation of observations (by Data Assimilation and Observing System WG) • Developing and testing global multi-model ensemble prediction systems and developing prototype multi-model ensemble products (by GIFS-TIGGE WG) Governance and Structure • The Programme is overseen by an International Core Steering Committee (ICSC and receives scientific guidance and direction from the WWRP Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) • The Programme is supported by a Trust Fund to which nations are invited to contribute • International Programme Office - focal point for the day to day operation • Five Regional Committees established for Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, and Southern Hemisphere

3. Outline of presentation • 1. Mid –Term Review – MTR (programme successes and achievements) • 2. Some recent activities of the Working Groups • 3. Beyond THORPEX – possible future arrangements

4. THORPEX progress report(Mid-Term Review - MTR) History • ICSC-8 requested the preparation of a Review capturing the main successes and achievements of the programme. • A first draft of the Review was presented at the ICSC-9 in 2011 and the ICSC members asked to propose revisions and supply missing material. • The WWRP/JSC in April 2012 discussed the review and was asked to provide further comments. • A latest version of the review was presented to ICSC 10 and can be found on the THORPEX website

5. THORPEX MTR Achievements Major real-time international observational programmes and experiments have been completed: • The Atlantic –TReC (A-TReC) field campaign was very successful technically and has provided valuable datasets to test targeting questions • The T-PARC/TCS-08 was a major multi-national field campaign and research initiative which addressed the shorter-range dynamics and forecast skill of tropical cyclones/ typhoons over eastern Asia and the western North Pacific and the downstream impact on the medium-range dynamics and forecast skill of the eastern North Pacific and North America. Has provided unique data sets from genesis to ET.

6. Contd., International data bases (TIGGE) of near-real time global ensemble predictions from ten prediction centres have been established and the results provided for research by three archive centres (CMA, ECMWF and NCAR). • Prototype multi-model ensemble products have been developed including for tropical cyclone tracks and heavy precipitation. • The TIGGE archives now provide a key research facility to enhance cooperation between universities and the operational weather prediction centres, with a focus on improving the forecasting of high-impact impact weather.

7. Contd., The THORPEX International Polar Year (IPY) cluster of projects have made a major contribution to observing and NWP in Polar Regions. • The cluster of 10 projects were very successful and have demonstrated that improvements in NWP for Polar Regions are possible and have significantly increased our understanding on how to improve models and the use of data in the Arctic, as well as providing a much deeper understanding of the physical processes involved. This cluster has lead naturally to the proposals for follow on Polar Prediction Project (PPP).

8. Contd., African Monsoon Multifrequency Anaylsis (AMMA) in the area of prediction of hazardous weather. • The two most fruitful examples of the collaboration were THORPEX support for additional radiosondes for AMMA and the evaluation of AMMA observational data through Observing System Experiments and also co-operative efforts between AMMA and the THORPEX African Regional Committee, in particular for the development of a Forecasters Handbook for High Impact Weather

9. Contd., The Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) programme has been initiated in conjunction with the WCRP and a Project Office established at NCAR. • The YOTC Science Plan has been completed, and the YOTC Implementation Plan is a living web document (www.ucar.edu/yotc). • The website includes links to data, science items, documents, meeting reports, and general information. In addition a YOTC Task Force to focus on understanding and modelling the MJO has been set up.

10. Contd., Comprehensive Reports on the effectiveness of data targeting (adaptive observations) in NWP have been completed. • The impact of observations on short range forecasts is found to be very similar across major NWP centres. The largest impacts are now from AMSU-A, satellite winds etc., although the global radiosonde network and data from aircraft remain very important.

11. Contd., Data Assimilation research has made major contributions to the understanding and development of the observing system through the use of operational data and THORPEX field experiments. • New data assimilation systems including 4D-VAR with different options of inferring the background errors and new EnKF systems are being contrasted and compared. Predictability and Dynamical Processes studies have contributed to the preparation and evaluation of international field experiments and raised the awareness in the academic PDP community of the research objectives of THORPEX • Promoted and encouraged research using the THORPEX data sets (notably TIGGE, T-PARC, YOTC), • Supported the development of research projects dedicated to THORPEX PDP research, established a linkage to WGNE on the issue of model uncertainties and promoted THORPEX through the organisation of summer schools.

12. New Initiatives Polar Prediction Research (PPP) Project • to improve understanding of the impact of polar processes on polar weather, the assimilation of data in Polar Regions, and the prediction of high impact weather over Polar Regions. • The new project will provide a framework for cooperative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather, climate, and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions. The implementation plan is well advanced and EC-64 (June 2012) approved the initiative, including setting up a project office and establishing a trust fund for its support. • Note: An invitation to contribute to the Trust for the PPP will be sent soon to all countries by the WMO Secretary General

13. Contd., Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project • The main goal of the WWRP/THORPEX-WCRP joint research project is to improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale, and promote its uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community. • Specific attention will be paid to the risk of extreme weather, including tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, heat waves and the waxing and waning of monsoon precipitation. • The new project will provide a framework for cooperative international research and development efforts between WWRP, THORPEX and WCRP to improve the accuracy, spatial and temporal information and applications of prediction in the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range in close cooperation with centres that provide such services operationally. • All countries will be invited to contribute to the S2S Trust Fund by the Secretary General in the near future.

14. Contd., • Three major International Symposia on THORPEX science, workshops and summer schools have been organised at which numerous papers related to THORPEX topics were presented along with comprehensive poster sessions. • Three GEO tasks (in climate, ensemble-prediction and high impact weather in Africa) are now the main elements of the GEO weather prediction activity.

15. Some recent activities of the Working Groups • DAOS • PDP • GIFS-TIGGE

16. Targeted Observations • Plan to submit a thinned • version to BAMS during 2013. • 2. Analysis of WSR 2010/11 • cases • 3. WSR 2011/12 cases

17. Summary of targeting • Clear benefits of targeted observations for TC forecasts. • In study with 4D-Var assimilation & ECMWF model, little impact seen for mid-latitude systems (2011 WSR). • Targeting’s future: • Global observational network design: use targeting strategies to adaptively select / thin satellite data for assimilation? • Potential to adapt targeting concepts to work in concert with rapidly adaptable observational resources, e.g., cloud-drift winds from rapid-scan imagery. But: need quick, efficient algorithms.

18. DAOS Messages for THORPEX • Research satellites/instruments can be valuable as operational data providers, but can fail suddenly without backups (e.g. ENVISAT, AMSR-E are recent examples) • Satellite data contributions to the GOS by nations increasing (e.g. FY-3, Oceansat-2), to hopefully help fill future gaps • New privately funded initiatives to provide satellite data • Impact of satellite data in medium range NWP is dominant in many advanced DA systems • Research underway to extend/improve use of advanced IR sounders (cloudy rads, use PCs, more data over land etc., • The .)

19. Post- THORPEX • The DAOS WG recommends that it becomes a WG of the WWRP at the end of the THORPEX Programme and is therefore funded by the general WMO budget rather than a Trust Fund. • It would become, in effect, the Data Assimilation Group of the WMO.

20. European PANDOWAE PDP Initative German PDP-oriented research group (funded by DFG, 2009-2015) All (7) PhD projects from first phase completed (now PostDocs at ECMWF, DWD, ETH, U Karlsruhe, U Mainz) 3 “joint papers” (coordinated by PhD student and PI) on overarching aspects of PDP research (Rossby wave trains, diabatic processes, ensembles and adaptivity) About 20 publications so far.

21. Observed Uncoupled T159 Coupled T159 D+12–18 T399 Uncoupled T2047 D+5 T399 ERA-Interim mmday-1 Wet Monsoon Problem spans all systems and timescales 20 15 10 Mean monsoon precipitation and errors in July 7 5 3 2 1 20 10 5 2 -2 -5 -10 -20 Milton, Rodwell, Willett, Brown

22. Atmospheric Rivers: Top 10 winter floods in central UK • Top 10 floods in Winter Maximum Series (WMS) over 1970–2010. • Persistent ARs located over basin in these floods. • ARs have consistent location and orientation. Data source: 20th Century / ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses. Lavers et al., 2011 GRL

23. T-NAWDEX Planning towards a cross-Atlantic aircraft field experiment in 2015 Scientific objective Investigate diabatic processes (e.g., aspects of transport, microphysics and radiation involved in formation of negative PV anomalies at tropopause level) in sequence of North Atlantic weather systems potentially involving ET, extratropical cyclones, WCB & blocking Aircraft Two G-V from both sides of the Atlantic (HIAPER and HALO), shorter range aircraft from UK, … Partners (as of Oct 2012) US (Pat Harr and colleagues), UK (John Methven and DIAMET community), Germany (DLR, U Munich, DWD), Switzerland (ETH), … Submission of US proposal to participate expected in Jan 2013

24. TIGGE Archive • Data volume now exceeds 600 terabytes, >1TB added every week. • Around 100 users access TIGGE data every month; >1600 users registered at ECMWF.

25. TIGGE-LAM: TIGGE for limited-area models The TIGGE-LAM panel, chaired by Tiziana Paccagnella works closely with the GIFS-TIGGE working group to supports the coordinated development of Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction Systems. • The panel facilitates the interoperability of the different modelling systems and coordinates the archiving of limited-area ensemble forecasts – the three TIGGE archive centres have agreed to host a sub-set of high priority LAM EPS data. • With the increasing emphasis on convective-scale ensembles, TIGGE-LAM works closely with the WWRP Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research group, as well as GIFS-TIGGE. • The TIGGE LAM Panel is now structured into regional sub-groups to facilitate the focus on regional activities, with links to THORPEX regional committees. • More information is available from the TIGGE-LAM website http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/tiggelam/.

26. GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) is a 3-year EU-funded FP7 project started September 2011. The Weather component (WP4) includes: improving access to TIGGE data at ECMWF; archiving of TIGGE-LAM data; developing and demonstrating forecast products. Weather participants: ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France, KIT But will involve other TIGGE partners in planning development & demonstration of products in conjunction with SWFDP. GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011

27. TC ensemble products • Now developing multi-model version of TC track / strike probability products, based on CXML data exchange. • To be delivered to SWFDP regional centres starting this autumn. Piers Buchanan, Met Office

28. Near-real time severe weather products • Survey results confirm need for near real-time version of severe weather products developed by MRI • Joint proposal being developed by Met Office, JMA, MRI. • Agreement sought to enable real-time JMA data to be used in addition to ECMWF, NCEP & Met Office.

29. TIGGE Research focus Following the successful establishment of the TIGGE dataset, the main focus of the GIFS-TIGGE working group has shifted towards research on ensemble forecasting. Initial emphasis: • Calibration and combination methods • Bias correction, downscaling • Multi-model ensembles; reforecasts Development of probabilistic forecast products – GIFS development • Tropical cyclones (CXML-based) • Gridded data: heavy precipitation; strong winds Focus has been on downstream application of ensembles, rather than on improving EPSs

30. TIGGE development Calibration, combination, products EPS improvement Time Evolution of TIGGE & GIFS • GIFS-TIGGE should also be a forum to focus on R&D directed at improving our EPS systems, to help us develop a “virtuous circle”. • Have introduced a section of the WG meeting for discussing ensemble initial conditions, stochastic physics & other aspects of improving our EPSs. • Also need to strengthen interest in ensemble verification & links with convective-scale EPS and the new sub-seasonal to seasonal group.

31. Summary • Since October 2006, the TIGGE archive has been accumulating regular ensemble forecasts from leading global NWP centres. • Progress is being made towards starting to deliver “GIFS products” to the SWFDP regional websites, first for tropical cyclone tracks and later focused on heavy rain and strong winds. We will collaborate with SWFDP on evaluating the products. • Looking forward to the post-THORPEX period, we recommend the merger of GIFS-TIGGE and the PDP WGs to establish a Predictability and Ensemble group of the WWRP, which would oversee the TIGGE archive, and with a scientific focus on dynamics, ensemble forecasting & predictability. TIGGE website: http://tigge.ecmwf.int

32. THORPEX – the future • The Programme comes to an end in Dec 2014 • ICSC 9 asked the THORPEX EC to look at possible future arrangements. • A paper on this subject, prepared by the EC, was presented to the recent ICSC 10 meeting.

33. Option A • The THORPEX Programme formally ends in December 2014 but the DAOS WG continues within the framework of the WWRP - assuming there is sufficient funding from the WWRP core funds to support it. • The RCs are disbanded. The Trust Fund is closed and the IPO wound up. WWRP is invited to consider the scope for including further activities e.g. PDP WG/TIGGE through rationalisation of WGs, meeting frequency, size etc and/or attracting additional funding. • Continuing cost: 30K CHF /annum (from the WWRP budget)

34. Option B • The THORPEX Programme is extended for a further 5-10 years and is restructured. The focus on high impact weather is sharpened. All three WGs remain. • The RCs continue as at present. The Trust Fund remains open for contributions and the IPO continues to the extent that it can be supported by the Trust Fund. • Continuing Cost: 300K CHF/annum (from the Trust Fund)

35. Option C • A new 10 year programme (Environmental Prediction Initiative) is established jointly, where appropriate, with the WCRP with a focus on improving the predictability of high impact weather from hours to a season (seamless prediction) and within the framework of a changing climate. New projects are introduced; two such projects have already been identified (sub-seasonal to seasonal and polar prediction). Other examples might include QPF, the water cycle, etc. These projects may subsume some of the current activities carried out by the TIGGE and PDP WGs and the Regional Committees. In this Option the DAOS WG is transferred to the WWRP. • A new Trust Fund is opened and a Programme Office set up. • The RCs are formally disbanded but could be replaced by new regional initiatives and/or projects.

36. Contd., • The rationale for Option C would be: marshalling global scientific resources to respond more effectively to the critical challenges in predicting weather from hours to a season for the benefit of the international community and to meet socio-economic needs. • The EC preferred option is Option C. The EC Chair was requested to implement a series of agreed steps to promote wider discussion of this and other options. • At ICSC 10 these options were discussed and the general response of members noted. There was clear support for option C but with significant variations.

37. Contd., • Specifically, the action agreed at ICSC 10 is to consider development of a new project focussed on HIW on timescales from hours to 14 days ahead. A brief 2 page description of this project is being prepared for distribution to ICSC members for comment. • A Town Hall meeting at the January AMS meeting is planned to discuss the proposals followed by a planning meeting in late Jan. or early Feb. 2013 hosted by Germany. • It is then intended to form a task team and employ a consultant to formulate detailed project plans.

38. Thank you for your attention!