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Fertility and Development

Fertility and Development. Aravinda Guntupalli. Measures of Fertility (1). Birth rate (or crude birth rate) : The number of live births per 1,000 population in a given year.

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Fertility and Development

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  1. Fertility and Development Aravinda Guntupalli

  2. Measures of Fertility (1) • Birth rate (or crude birth rate): The number of live births per 1,000 population in a given year. • Growth rate: The number of persons added to (or subtracted from) a population in a year due to natural increase and net migration

  3. Measures of Fertility (2) • General Fertility Rate • GFR= (B / FP15-44) * 1,000 • FP15-44 = female population aged 15-44 • Age specific fertility rates • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) • Child-Woman Ratio (CWR) • CWR0-4 = (P0-4 / FP15-44) • CWR5-9 = (P5-9 / FP20-49)

  4. TFR and replacement fertility • TFR explores replacement fertility levels • A population with replacement fertility will stop growing • In country like US with low mortality rate 2.1 TFR is produces replacement level fertility where as for Sierra Leone TFR should be greater than 3

  5. TFR in Europe and the USA

  6. Fertility rates in Asia

  7. TFR decline in some European countries

  8. Evolution of fertility rates

  9. European Fertility Rates - 2001 ____________________ Source: GAD

  10. Fertility decline by age groups

  11. ICPD conference • Cairo 1994 • Many governments pursued demographic policies that time to decrease their population • The number of developing countries that view their population growth as too high or too low has declined • Developed countries are worried about declining fertility and population aging

  12. Situation of growth in developed countries • Fall in death rates was relatively gradual due to trail and error of innovation • Technology for improving production, sanitary methods and medical advances has to be discovered or invented • Due to norms of late marriage birth rates never increased dramatically • Population growth was not a violent explosion

  13. The decline in fertility rates in the EU • Women (and families) are deciding to have less children than ever before: • Total fertility rates in the EU are the lowest in the world, bar some countries in Eastern Europe and Japan • Fertility decline started in the mid 1960s • Early declines in the North (Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg and Sweden): Demographic core/periphery divide • Subsequent and more dramatic decline in the Mediterranean countries (Italy and Spain now with some of the lowest TFR in the world) • Short-lived rebound of fertility rates in Sweden and other Scandinavian countries in the early 1990s

  14. The decline in birth rates in Europe • Lower number of marriages and marriages later in life • Unstable marriages and growing divorce rates • Increase in cohabitation • Increasing age at marriage • Participation of women in the labour market

  15. Situation of birth and death rates in the developing countries • The decline in mortality was widespread and sudden • Medical technology was already available • Insecticides such as DDT provided cheap way for bringing down malaria • Infant mortality rates also declined considerably • decline in death rates and increase in birth rates were faster

  16. Fertility and missing markets • Children are substitutes for various missing markets especially social security in the old age • Developed countries: Social security fund or employer subsidized retirement plan along with medical insurance • In developing countries, many of these institutions are totally missing and the available institutions are only for formally employed (not for agricultural and urban informal sectors)

  17. Mortality and fertility • Infant mortality is 150-200 per 1000 births in some developing countries • Added to this after this barrier childhood diseases are preponderant • Also there is a possibility that a child might not be an adequate income earner • Lastly a child might not look after the parents in their old age • All these situations compel parents for more children to overcome all these barriers

  18. Gender bias and fertility • Son preference forces couples to have more children for the need for more sons • Culturally and economically sons are beneficial for parents in many Asian countries which compels them to increase their number of children till they achieve the desired number of sons • Study in Bangladesh shows that widows can hold in to land if they have able-bodied sons ( Cain) • Also for agricultural families more sons means more labor (North and South India : Tim Dyson)

  19. Costs of Children in the poor countries • Because children are an “investment” rather than a “consumption good” the “expected return of the investment” is given by child labor and financial support for parents in old age • Parents have children up to the point at which their marginal economic benefit is equal to marginal cost

  20. Why Children are beneficial in Developing Countries ? In sum • Infant/child mortality remains high • Sources of child labor & remittance income later on • Social security/safety net for elderly poor • Low child-rearing cost, esp. low opportunity cost of women’s time

  21. Impact of high fertility in developing countries ???? “Mutual causation means that rapid population growth – with its usual accompaniments of early first births, large families, high child-adult ratios and near spacing of siblings – may be not only a cause of poverty through the above mechanisms, but also a consequence of poverty – probably due largely to constraints on, and rational behavior by, the poor.” - Eastwood and Lipton

  22. Household theory of fertility • Family size is a decision taken at the microeconomic level by households based on a rational economic decision on “demand for children” • Income effect: Higher income allows for larger family size • Substitution effect: Higher cost of children implies smaller family size • Other theories

  23. Stage of Demographic Transition and population requirement • Population growth may be good in the beginning • Besides population growth factors like political stability, cultural resources, and economic efficiency may be much more important ???

  24. Response of different countries • Africa: Namibia, Tanzania and the Sudan officially inaugurated policies to reduce population growth • Most of the Asian governments are satisfied about their growth rates (especially China and Korea) • Europe: Portugal, Romania, and Italy are concerned about low population growth and Croatia inaugurated policy to increase fertility • In Latin America many countries consider their population growth rates to be satisfactory. (exceptions: densely populated areas of the Caribbean and Central America • North America: US and Canada, Australia and New Zealand are satisfied with their population growth rates

  25. Did family policies work? • Some claim that the impact has been weak (Gauthier; Hoem) • Others suggest that family policies have had an impact • The actual evidence is inconclusive • Lack of adequate family policies may have contributed to the decline in fertility in southern Europe • Some countries with more generous family policies (Sweden, Finland, Denmark, France, the UK) tend to have slightly higher fertility rates • But countries with similar family policy regimes differ in their fertility rates

  26. Thank you

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