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Party and the Tea Party Among Aiken County Voters

Party and the Tea Party Among Aiken County Voters. Bob Botsch Political Science USC Aiken. USC Aiken Surveys. Began in early 1980s – Research M ethods classes Formed Organization for Public Service and contractual work: SSBRL—Social Science and Business Research Lab

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Party and the Tea Party Among Aiken County Voters

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  1. Party and the Tea Party Among Aiken County Voters Bob Botsch Political Science USC Aiken

  2. USC Aiken Surveys • Began in early 1980s – Research Methods classes • Formed Organization for Public Service and contractual work: SSBRL—Social Science and Business Research Lab • Reports on line at: http://www.usca.edu/polisci/SSBRLab/ • Perform wide variety of research/surveys

  3. Special Surveys under Contract

  4. Aiken County General Population Telephone Surveys

  5. Exit Polls in Even Numbered Years

  6. The Long Term: Party ID Over Time

  7. Party ID Over Time-2 Party Split

  8. Gender Gap (2010 Exit Poll) • Males: 22% Dem – 57% Rep • Females: 35% Dem – 52% Rep

  9. Ethnicity • Whites: 13% Dem – 67% Rep • Blacks: 92% Dem – 3% Rep • Turnout: Blacks comprise 25% of the population but only 20% of voters • If Dem won ALL black votes, still need 30 of the remaining 80 percentage points of the white vote, or 38% of the total white vote

  10. Age: averages • Democrats average age: 51 • Republicans average age: 56

  11. Age Distribution

  12. Regional Identification • Native Southerners: 28% Dem – 57% Rep • Converted Southrn: 21% Dem – 59% Rep • Non-Southerners: 39% Dem – 39% Rep • Non-Southerners comprise about 12% of all voters; Native Southerners about 68%

  13. Religious Fundamentalism • Fundamentalists: 25% Dem – 64% Rep • Non-Fundamentalists: 30% Dem – 49% Rep

  14. Ideology of all Voters • Hard for non-conservatives to win in Aiken County • Liberals comprised 15% of all voters • Mid Road/Not Sure’s: 27% of all voters • Conservatives: 58% of all voters

  15. Issue: Irritated when hear people speaking Spanish in public? • Democrats: 36% Irritated – 65% Not • Independents: 47% Irritated – 54% Not • Republicans: 54% Irritated – 46% Not • Overall: 47% Irritated – 53% Not

  16. Issue: Social Security—keep or phase out w/ voluntary savings • Democrats: 97% Keep – 3% Phase Out • Independents: 85% Keep – 15% Phase Out • Republicans: 84% Keep – 16% Phase Out

  17. Issue: Health Care—cover all; only old, poor child, disabled; or free market • Democrats: 94% all; 4% o/pc/d; 2% fm • Independents: 43% all; 21% o/pc/d; 37% fm • Republicans: 17% all; 29% o/pc/d; 55% fm • All voters: 43% all; 20% o/pc/d; 37% fm

  18. Issue: School Vouchers— oppose b/c take $ from public schools; support b/c would increase competition • Democrats: 70% oppose – 30% support • Independents: 56% oppose – 44% support • Republicans: 37% oppose – 64% support • All voters: 50% oppose – 50% support

  19. Issue: Abortion—pro life; mid ground; or pro choice • Democrats: 14% p/l; 26% mid; 61% p/c • Independents: 14% p/l; 35% mid; 51% p/c • Republicans: 26% p/l; 46% mid; 28% p/c • All voters: 20% p/l; 39% mid; 41% p/c

  20. Issue: Obama is really a Muslim?no – yes – not sure • Democrats: 93% no – 2% yes – 6% n/s • Independents: 52% no – 27% yes – 21% n/s • Republicans: 30% no – 42% yes – 28% n/s • All voters: 52% no – 28% yes – 20% n/s

  21. Tea Party Supporters • Supporters: 1% Dem – 82% Rep • Non-supporters: 57% Dem – 25% Rep • Tea party Supporters comprised 43% of all voters • And 65% of all Republican voters • Non-Tea Party Republicans are quite different than Tea Party Supporters—as we shall see!

  22. How Tea Party Supporters Differ • Should politicians compromise? • Dem: 90% Ind: 96% Rep: 82% TP: 64% • Support school vouchers? • Dem: 25% Ind: 22% Rep: 38% TP: 60% • Health care run totally by free market? • Dem: 2% Ind: 15% Rep: 47% TP: 61% • Religion very important in vote choice? • Dem: 24% Ind: 9% Rep: 25% TP: 34%

  23. Continued • Never bothered by Spanish in public? • Dem: 64% Ind: 60% Rep: 55% TP: 42% • Phase out Social Security? • Dem: 2% Ind: 6% Rep: 9% TP: 21% • Prefer helpful leaders over strong leaders? • Dem: 88% Ind: 72% Rep: 58% TP: 49% • Cut spending over stim econ & save programs? • Dem: 9% Ind: 41% Rep: 61% TP: 86%

  24. continued • Pro choice on abortion? • Dem: 56% Ind: 63% Rep: 41% TP: 22% • Self-identify as Religious Fundamentalists? • Dem: 27% Ind: 11% Rep: 28% TP: 38% • Family income > $50k last year? • Dem: 44% Ind: 65% Rep: 59% TP: 68% • Political Ideology: Moderates? • Dem: 50% Ind: 53% Rep: 22% TP: 9%

  25. Conclusions • Current huge advantage for GOP and conservatives • unless more moderate Republicans become alienated by Tea Party extremism • Note: county less conservative on issues than in labels • Long term demographics favor more competitive elections • Because of age and non-southerners

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