Understanding Climate Change Concepts

1. Global Climate Change Alliance: Intra-ACP Programme Training ModuleMainstreaming Climate Change Module 2 – Climate change concepts & development linkages Ms Isabelle MamatySenior ExpertClimate Support Facility

2. Climate change concepts & development • Learning objectives: • To understand the main climate change concepts • To understand the climate change –development linkages • Expected outcomes: • Increased knowledge on the concepts of vulnerability, risk and hazard, adaptation, mitigation

3. Biophysical and socio-economic impacts Biophysical impacts Socioeconomic impacts Changes in t° Changes in rainfall patterns Shifts in seasons More frequent or severe storms, floods, droughts Raised sea level Erosion, desertification Changes in water quality/availability Changes in ecosystems Biodiversity loss Disease & pest outbreaks, ... Damage to or destruction of infrastructure Reduced food security, malnutrition Economic disruption, loss of livelihoods, social disruption Increased mortality and morbidity Reduced availability of hydropower Conflicts, population displacement, human migrations, ... Vulnerabilityfactors

4. Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity • Age • Gender • Social group • Education • Wealth • Access to information and technology • ‘Built’ and ‘green’ infrastructure • Institutions • Social organisation • Culture • Equity & (in)equality • Development level + + + Resilience - Vulnerability - + Adaptation Maladaptation

5. Hazard and risk Probability of occurrence Hazard Risk Severity of consequences

6. Impacts Opportunities, risks & constraints Adaptation and mitigation Climate,environment & natural resources Adaptation Mitigation Human activities

7. Environment – climate change –development linkages • Climate change: • an environ-mental issue - a development issue Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Figure B, p. 7.

8. Climate uncertainties • For any given emission scenario, different atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) provide different projections of future change – sometimes very different ones • Due to the complexity of the climate system, many uncertainties prevail and will persist over the evolution of climate

9. The cost of inaction Failure to adapt Failure to reduce emissions *Wasted investment *Increased vulnerability *More harmful impacts *Higher adaptation costs • The uncertainties surrounding climate change are often invoked to justify inaction • In a medium- to long-term perspective, however, inaction now is likely to be more costly:

10. The benefits of action • Some climate adaptation and mitigation measures are expected to provide developmental benefits, regardless of the scope and magnitude of climate change or, as far as mitigation is concerned, regardless of carbon prices • Even in the face of uncertainty, some types of measures are justified

11. Justified measures in the face of uncertainty (1) • ‘No-regret’ measures: • those expected to produce net benefits for society even in the absence of climate change (adaptation) or independently of any ‘reward’ for mitigation (zero or negative net cost at a zero carbon price) • ‘Low-regret’ measures: • those expected to have a cost for society, but an acceptable one in view of the benefits they would bring if climate change turns out to produce significant effects (adaptation), or to have a low net cost at zero or low carbon prices (mitigation)

12. Justified measures in the face of uncertainty (2) • ‘Robust’ measures: • those that produce net benefits or deliver good outcomes across various possible climate change or carbon price scenarios and economic development scenarios (rather than just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)

13. Key messages related to uncertainties • Many uncertainties prevail and will persist over the evolution of the climate • Combination of socioeconomic uncertainties and climate-related uncertainties / modelling limitations • Downscaling of projections remains difficult • Uncertainties do not justify inaction • Look for no-regret, low-regret and robust measures • Adaptive management and scenario-based planning support planning under conditions of uncertainty

14. Climate change and sustainable development Both adaptation and mitigation support more sustainable development Climate change Biophysical effects Environment Sustainable development Socio-economic impacts Social dimension Economy In turn, the pursuit of sustainable development enhances society’s response capacity

15. Climate change and environment Credit: Proyecto Rio Hurtado, EuropeAid Photo Library Credit: Vietnamese journalist, EuropeAid Photo Library • Climate change is a theme to be addressed with other environmental issues: • Climate change exacerbates certain environmental trends and problems • Environmental management has an impact on climate change

16. Climate change and MDGs Reduce child mortality (Goal 4) Eradicate extreme poverty & hunger (Goal 1) e.g. Increased incidence of waterborne diseases Promote gender equality & empower women (Goal 3) e.g. Adverse effects on food security Potential impacts on MDGs e.g. Dependence on livelihoods put at risk by CC Improve maternal health (Goal 5) Ensure environmental sustainability (Goal 7) Combat major diseases (Goal 6) e.g. Higher incidence of anaemia resulting from malaria e.g. Heat-related mortality & illnesses e.g. Increased stress on ecosystems and biodiversity Source: OECD (2009a)

17. The development–adaptation continuum Vulnerability Response to impacts • Addressing the drivers of vulnerability • Developmental benefits Building the response capacity => Developmental and climate adaptation benefits • Managing climate risk • (e.g. DRR) • => Primarily adaptation benefits, developmental benefits as a ‘side effect’ Specifically confronting climate change => Quasi-exclusive focus on very specific CC impacts, adaptation benefits only 100 0 Benefits in the absence of climate change Adapted from: McGray et al (2007), OECD (2009a), Olhoff & Schaer (2010)

18. Moving to climate-resilient development Biophysical impacts Socioeconomic impacts The develop-ment path addresses current and future vulnerability, risks and impacts Vulnerabilityfactors Climate risk management Development (vulnerability reduction) activities Climate risk management Specific adaptation measures Specific adaptation measures Response capacity building

19. Moving to low-emission development The develop-ment path addresses sources of emissions Energy (fossil-fuel burning) Agriculture Land use change esp. deforestation • Generally, the three ‘sectors’ that are the biggest contributors to GHG emissions are also the main targets for emission reductions: • Country-specific emission patterns and development objectives should be considered to determine national mitigation priorities 19

20. Building on NAPAs and NAMAs • Many developing countries have now submitted their NAPAs (& NAMAs) to the UNFCCC • NAPAs = national adaptation programmes of action • Help LDCs build national capacities and identify priority adaptation projects with developmental benefits • NAMAS = nationally appropriate mitigation actions • These voluntary mitigation measures are consistent with a country’s development strategy, and are meant to put it on a more sustainable development path • These are a good starting point for addressing the climate challenge without compromising development objectives

21. Adaptation and mitigation: seizing opportunities Source: OECD (2010b) • Green growth • ‘A way to pursue economic growth and development, while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversity loss and unsustainable natural resource use’ • Green jobs • Adaptation and mitigation as ‘opportunities’: development co-benefits • e.g. renewable energy • e.g. clean technologies • e.g. forestry (REDD+) • e.g. agricultural productivity

22. Adaptation and mitigation:developing synergies • Quite frequently adaptation and mitigation measures are congruent and can produce a double stream of benefits • e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbon sequestration in soils while supporting soil moisture retention, thus increasing resilience to dry spells • e.g. sustainable reforestation may simultaneously enhance carbon stocks and, by offering new livelihood opportunities, enhance the adaptive capacity of local communities

23. Adaptation and mitigation:ensuring complementarity • Mitigation should: • Be compatible with adaptation policies and requirements • Rely on environmentally sustainable practices • e.g. unsustainable agrofuels may be a threat to food security, water availability and ecosystems • Not result in increased vulnerability to climate change • Adaptation should: • Take emissions into account • e.g. agricultural intensification for improved food security may increase emissions from the use of fertilisers • e.g. the increased adoption of air conditioning to adapt to heat waves may result in increased emissions from fossil energy use

24. Moving to climate-resilient, low-emission development Adaptation mainstreaming Climate-resilient development The two approaches are complementary Mainstreaming of climate change mitigation Low-emission development In both cases, focus on co-benefits 24 • Both climate-resilient development and low-emission development result from mainstreaming climate change in policymaking and planning

25. Turning words into action

26. Discussion What are the opportunities to address climate change challenge in your sector or at your level and what are the institutional and capacity needs in your organisation to do so? • Questions and Answers • Climate change challenge

27. Presentation of case studies • Case studies: sharing of experiences of events and natural hazards and their impacts in different regions of the specific country

28. Learning process exercise : Working group • Exercise : select a development priority, a policy, or a sector programme within the country and discuss its implementation in relation to the vulnerability concept

29. Recap – Key messages • Climate change is a development issue as well as an environmental issue • May jeopardise the achievement of the MDGs and other development objectives • Many interventions labelled ‘adaptation’ can also contribute to ‘development’ – and vice versa • Adaptation (with a view to achieving climate-resilient development) and mitigation (with a view to achieving low-emission development) are complementary responses to climate change with the potential to generate significant ‘co-benefits’ in terms of development • Many uncertainties prevail and will persist over the evolution of the climate but do not justify inaction • Look for no-regret, low-regret and robust measures

30. Key references • IPCC (2007c) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch • IPCC (2007d) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch • Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009) Shaping climate-resilient development: a framework for decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility, European Commission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockfeller Foundation, Standard Chartered Bank & Swiss Re • World Bank – Climate Change Knowledge Portal: http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/

31. Thank you Contact: Dr. Pendo MARO, ACP Secretariat pendomaro@acp.int or +32 495 281 494www.gcca.eu/intra-acp