capita. The short-term effect of the impact multipliers, given assumptions,

1. capita. The short-term effect of the impact multipliers, given assumptions, results in twice the value of the base-year PCDP - an amount equal to approximately 150 kgs. per capita. Individually, the assumption given by the simultaneous changes in GNP per capita, increase in the c.i.f. price of imports and calorie reduction, tends to exert the greatest upward shift in domestic production from 72 Kgs. in the base-year to 387 Kgs. This is nearly five times the level of production in the base-year. The GNP/capita assumption alone exerts an equally strong influence on PCDP. Given this scenario, PCDP would rise to nearly three times the level registered in the base-year equal to 272 Kgs/capita. A purposeful reduction in the level of calories (Y5) by 8%, would force domestic production to rise to 175 Kgs. per capita - an increase equal to approximately two-and-a-half times that in the base year. Alternatively, should c.i.f. prices of cereal imports rise by 15% as suggested by the assumption, domestic production would increase to 117 Kgs. per capita, possibly in an attempt to substitute for the high- cost imports. Only under the assumption that the level of calorie intake is improved by 8%, would PCDP fail to register similar achievements. Nevertheless, even under these conditions, some remarkable im- provements in the PCDP occur(25). These findings indicate that oppurtunities for managing food deficits in Somalia exist. Section 4. is devoted to the analysis of management and policy options likely to be defined as short and long-term targets. 32