Policy Options for Water-Stressed Regions: Comparing the Middle East and Southern Africa

1. Some thoughts on Policy options in water stressed states :Middle East vs Southern Africa Mike Muller Director General Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

2. Stress versus absolute scarcity Resource constraints - natural or financial Implications for cooperation or conflict Southern African progress - any implications for Middle East ? Policy options in water stressed states : Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

3. Stress versus absolute scarcity Resource constraints - natural or financial Implications for cooperation or conflict Southern African progress - any implications for ME ? Policy options in water stressed states : Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

4. The Southern African challenge:Less water “shortage” than natural variability and financial constraintsMiddle East – some face absolute scarcity Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

5. Middle East versusSouthern Africa:TotalRenewable Water Resourcesm3 / person Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

6. Europe etc.versusSouthern Africa:TotalRenewable Water Resources m3 / person Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

7. Stress versus absolute scarcity Resource constraints - natural or financial Implications for cooperation or conflict Southern African progress - any implications for ME ? Policy options in water stressed states : Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

8. Southern Africa - not water shortage The “shortage” is mainly of the financial and related resources to manage the water that is available, to capture and store it, transport it to where it is required for use and then to use it efficiently to maximise its potential social and economic contributions. Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

9. Extreme Variability : Africa’s Burden Kenya: Annual Rainfall Variation about the Average 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

10. Natural legacy Extreme climatic variability (+/- 35%), recurrent floods and droughts n Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

11. Key Southern African Issues • Resource greatly under- developed & exploited • Variability needs storage and imposes costs • (Aggravated by impact of climate change) • Poor Countries lack public funding capacity & incomes to support higher levels of activity • Lumpy, long investments, aggravate situation • Global trade & investment environment critical Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

12. Rainfall (and war) affect growth…. Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

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14. Stress versus absolute scarcity Resource constraints - natural or financial Implications for cooperation or conflict Southern African progress - any implications for ME ? Policy options in water stressed states : Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

15. Regional Cooperation • Approaches to mitigate stress: • store the water, • transport it to where it is needed • use it efficiently • focus on areas of “water advantage” • All cost money • Need for integrated approach • (rivers know no boundaries) • Cooperation may offer efficiencies Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

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18. Regional Cooperation Water’s co-operative advantage: Unlike minerals (and related energy) resources water is a renewable resource – If you mess it up one year, you get a chance to start again the next. Provides “learning context” for cooperation. Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

19. Regional Cooperation Non-cooperation ? reduced early warning capacity reduced water availability reduced production flexibility increased risk (perceived & real) …….dispute & even conflict Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

20. Regional Cooperation Cooperation/integration enhanced monitoring /early warning diversified water storage & economic production (power, food, etc) mobility of labor and commodities diversification of political & economic risk Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

21. Stress versus absolute scarcity Resource constraints - natural or financial Implications for cooperation or conflict Southern African progress - any implications for Middle East ? Policy options in water stressed states : Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

22. Southern African Progress • Some examples • Mozambique (Zambesi): • power generation and flood control • Lesotho (Highlands): • income generation and supply security • Swaziland/Mozambique (Komati) • supply security, cost effective supply and improved management efficiencies Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

23. Southern African Progress • Implications for Mid-East ? • Geopolitics are different (regional growth and development is a SA priority) • Southern African scarcity not comparable (Palestine/Israel/Lebanon) • Some opportunities are present (notably Iraq/Syria/Turkey) • Could water be a vehicle for cooperation ? Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

24. End Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

25. Policy Options Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

26. Water and Regional Integration • Climate variability: manage through mobility of production & trade  regional integration • International waters: enhance regional security through joint management  regional integration Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

27. New burdens : climate variability (change?)index of rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990 Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991 Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

28. Drought…. Southern Africa drought (1991/2) • 20 million affected; $2b relief Zimbabwe drought (1991/2) • 45% decline in agricultural production • 11% decline in GDP • 62% decline in stock market • 9% decline in manufacturing output • 15% reduction in power generation Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

29. The case of Kenya (Mogacha, Gichere, Davis, Hirji) • Economic shock: 97/98 El Nino flood; 99/00 drought: $4b (45% of GDP); • Direct recurring annual cost: catchment degradation/deteriorating water quality $120m/a • BUT: indirect costs of perceived risk of variability?? Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

30. Economic impacts of variability • Massive shock of extreme events • Agrarian incomes amplified through economy • Investment disincentives / risk averse behavior • Economies trapped in low level equilibrium • Pervasive impacts in all years Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

31. International rivers: economic impacts? • Tensions -> economic fragmentation / limited integration • Perverse policy responses (eg self sufficiency) • Diversion: economic development -> security? Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

32. Climate variability impacts & some solutions Factors exacerbating climate variability impacts • International rivers without cooperation • Lack of information >> no early warning • Lack of control options>>flexible storage • Expanding extensive agriculture (Africa’s growth strategy…) • Watershed degradation>>flashy rivers>>more floods/droughts Mitigating the Risk of Rainfall Variability • Storage Investments • Structural: reservoirs, groundwater recharge • Non-structural: watershed management, wetlands conservation • Policies (ag. intensification, zoning, pricing, insurance...) • International cooperation Department of Water Affairsand Forestry

33. Southern Africa Regional Challenge • If you are poor, you have to be clever • Cooperation can pay dividends through added efficiencies • “go it alone” policies will be penalised Department of Water Affairsand Forestry