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This report provides an update on the recent evolution, current conditions, and prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes information on rainfall patterns over the past 90, 30, and 7 days, as well as atmospheric circulation and forecast models. The report also discusses the onset of the monsoon and the climatology of the Asian and Australian monsoons.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 09, 2014 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall amounts over all of India except in the northeast and almost over all of China except in the region bordering Burma is at near or slightly above normal levels. However, northern Australia, Koreas, Japan, and over major parts of southeast Asian countries essentially including Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnams, rainfall has been below normal.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall is below normal over central India and considerably below normal in all southeast Asian countries east of Burma. However, rainfall is above normal over southeastern China.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, the India Meteorological Dept. (IMD) has declared the onset of 2014 summer monsoon rainfall over the state of Kerala on the 6th of June and that the monsoon has fully covered the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala by the 9th of June. Central India remains relatively dry this past week.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall amounts over all of India except in the northeast and almost over all of China except in the region bordering Burma is at near or slightly above normal levels. However, northern Australia, Koreas, Japan, and over major parts of southeast Asian countries essentially including Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnams, rainfall has been below normal. For the past 30 days, rainfall is below normal over central India and considerably below normal in all southeast Asian countries east of Burma. However, rainfall is above normal over southeastern China. In this past week, the India Meteorological Dept. (IMD) has declared the onset of 2014 summer monsoon rainfall over the state of Kerala on the 6th of June and that the monsoon has fully covered the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala by the 9th of June, which is consistent with the rainfall maps shown here. But central India remains relatively dry this past week. In the next week, the NCEP GFS model predicts below normal rainfall over large parts of India and much below normal over southeastern China but above normal rainfall over central China, Burma, and parts of Thailand, Laos and north Vietnam. A somewhat similar picture is also forecast for the second week except for southeastern China with above normal rainfall.
