Bilateral Agreements: A Path to Regional Regulation of Migration in East Asia? David Chiavacci

1. Bilateral Agreements: A Path to Regional Regulation of Migration in East Asia?David Chiavacci Pathways to Legitimacy? The Future of Global and Regional Governance CSGR/GARNET Conference, University of Warwick, 17-19 September 2007

2. Introduction • Since late 1980s, East Asia established as migration region and increasingly migration movements • Repeatedly calls for stronger regional cooperation concerning migration in East Asia • New multilateral forums, but enforceable multilateral agreement or regional regime for non-highly skilled workers very difficult • New bilateral agreements a good alternative or even a path to regional regulation of migration?

3. Overview • East Asian Migration Region: Emergence and Patterns • Multilateral Regional Migration Forums • Bilateral Agreements in East Asia as Path to Regional Regulation? • Concluding Remarks

4. Emergence of the East Asian Migration Region • 1945 to 1970s: East Asia a non-migration region • 1970s onwards, emigration to Anglo-Saxon immigration countries of New World and oil-exporting countries of Golf region • Early 1980s onwards, increasingly intraregional migration flows • Late 1980s, establishment of East Asian migration region

5. Regional Origin of Asian Foreign Workers in Asia, late 1990s (in thousands) Source: Own Calculations based on Stahl (2003: 36-37).

6. Patterns of the East Asian Migration Region • Very defensive policy approach • Unilateral migration policy • Neither multicultural integration nor assimilation, but exclusion of foreign immigrants • Crucial role of private migration industry in regional migration movements • Intraregional differences • Advanced economies with relative strict enforcement • Semi-peripheral economies with relative loose enforcement

7. Need for Stronger Regional Cooperation • Problems • Large number and share of undocumented foreign workers • Exploitation of foreign workers • Human rights infractions • Human trafficking, debt-bounded migration • Political tensions due to migration issues • E.g. between Philippines and Malaysia • Recurring calls for stronger regional cooperation regarding international migration

8. Overview • East Asian Migration Region: Emergence and Patterns • Multilateral Regional Migration Forums • Bilateral Agreements in East Asia as Path to Regional Regulation? • Concluding Remarks

9. New Multilateral Initiatives • Manila Process (established 1996) • Irregular migration and trafficking in persons • 1999 Bangkok Declaration • Inter-Governmental Asia-Pacific Consultations on Refugees, Displaced Persons and Migrants (APC, established 1996) • Bali Process (established 2002) • People smuggling, trafficking in persons and related transnational crime • ASEAN • 2007 ASEAN Declaration on the Protection and Promotion of the Rights of Migrant Workers

10. Strength and Deficits of Multilateral Initiatives in East Asia • Important forums for information sharing and dialogue among governments • Increased understanding and consciousness of migration issues • No binding agreements, no overlooking institution • Enforcement of even very general declarations not granted • Specific migration issues discussed, but not general dialogue on migration issues or migration and economic development • What is achievable in view of large number of participating economies and economic differences?

11. Overview • East Asian Migration Region: Emergence and Patterns • Multilateral Regional Migration Forums • Bilateral Agreements in East Asia as Path to Regional Regulation? • Concluding Remarks

12. FTA-Stampede in East Asia • Strong increase of bilateral trade agreements in East Asia (FTA-stampede) • Negative, pessimistic view • Positive trade discrimination • Noodle bowl because of rule of origins • Increasing rivalry between PR China, Japan and South Korea • Positive, optimistic view • Important first step for an East Asian free trade area • Increasing number of bilateral agreements concerning migration a step towards regional regulation?

13. Reached Bilateral Agreements concerning Migration in East Asia • Types of agreements • Memoranda of Understanding (MOU): “soft approach”, very broad framework • Bilateral Agreements (BA): more specific, formal and binding • Malaysia and Thailand: a number of MOUs with countries of origin • South Korea: 6 MOUs under Employment Permit System (Indonesia, Mongolia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam) • Taiwan: BAs (Thailand and Vietnam) and MOUs (Indonesia and Philippines) • Japan: Economic Partnership Agreements (Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia)

14. A Step Forward? • Positive, optimistic view • Migration flows primarily bilateral and not regional (especially flows of non-highly skilled workers) • Possibility of specific solutions for bilateral problems • Migration as general issue addressed • Positive discrimination, but binding regional agreement in view of economic and demographic gaps for the time being realistic? • Negative, pessimistic view • “Soft” MOUs really a step forward? • Some provisions in agreements do not conform to international norms and good practice on protection of migrant rights • Migration in agreements very rarely linked to other economic issues • Monitoring and enforcement of MOUs and BAs (especially concerning foreign worker protection)

15. Northeast Asian Economies as Regional Leaders? • Taiwan • Foreign guest worker program since 1989 • Background: impede undocumented migration from PR China and hollowing-out of industry to PR China • South Korea • Foreign trainee program • 2004, introduction of guest worker program • Initial quotas very low • Japan • Foreign trainee program • EPAs with Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia including migration clauses (strong linkage) • Initial quotas very low • Non-highly skilled workers?

16. Driving and Retarding Factors for a Less Unilateral Immigration Policy • Driving factors • Security and internal order • Labor shortage (also in not exportable economic sectors) • Economic gains • Improvement of international status • Regional leadership aspiration • Retarding factors • Nationalism (mono-ethnic states) • Ability to control national border • European guest worker programs generally regarded as failure • Regional oversupply of non-highly skilled labor • Potential size of flows due to demographic and economic gaps • Size of PR China and Indonesia

17. East Asia and Emigration Trap Emigration trap Size of emigration flow of non-highly skilled workers Development of Philippines European experience Economic development

18. Overview • East Asian Migration Region: Emergence and Patterns • Multilateral Regional Migration Forums • Bilateral Agreements in East Asia as Path to Regional Regulation? • Concluding Remarks

19. East Asia and Migration • Paradoxes of migration in East Asia • Economic gains, but politically problematic • Regional regulation needed because of potential migration movements, but very difficult because of potential migration movements • MOUs and BAs as alternative or even path to regional regulation? • Very difficult • Still, development only at the beginning and at least important supplement to regional forums • FTA/EPA between PR China and Japan including migration clauses? • Migration not a driving force for regional integration; stronger regional institutions precondition for regional regulation of migrations