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The Roadmap of cooperation between Russia and the European Union in the energy sector until 2050

The Roadmap of cooperation between Russia and the European Union in the energy sector until 2050. Institute of Energy Strategy Deputy General Director Alexey Gromov The EU-Russia Energy Dialogue Brussels , 18 th February 201 1. EU and Russia: energy market interdependence.

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The Roadmap of cooperation between Russia and the European Union in the energy sector until 2050

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  1. The Roadmap of cooperation between Russia and the European Union in the energy sector until 2050 Institute of Energy Strategy Deputy General Director Alexey Gromov The EU-Russia Energy Dialogue Brussels, 18th February 2011

  2. EU and Russia: energy market interdependence • Energy markets are globalizing • Russia is a key supplier of energy for EU • EU is a key market of energy for Russia • Oil market as global factor • LNG market is globalizing • Russia develops alternative export markets • EU develops alternative import sources 2

  3. Russia and EU need common long-term Energy Vision • Long-term global social and economic vision • Nature – Society– People system • Mathematicalmodeling • global energy modeling • macroeconomics modeling • Technology foresight • energy foresight • non-energy foresight • Energy sector analysis • Key trends • Key events Fact Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario - Energy-intensive - Energy savings - Energy efficiency 3

  4. Global energy trends: shift to the developing countries Global energy consumption, btoe CO2 emission, billion tonnes Fact OECD Reference scenario, OECD Stagnation scenario, OECD Innovative scenario, OECD Fact non-OECD Reference scenario, non-OECD Stagnation scenario, non-OECD Innovative scenario, non-OECD 4

  5. Global energy trends: shift to the low-carbon energy • Reference scenario – • carbon-intensive + geopolitics • Stagnation scenario – renewables + climate policy • Innovative scenario – • smart energy + market • Uncertainty is very high • Renewables are key factor • Radical change in energy mix may happen and may not btoe 5

  6. European energy market: uncertainty is related with renewables and regulation EU electricity generation, bln mWh EU primary energy consumption, mtoe EU share in global primary energy demand declines from 14,5% to 11-12% 7

  7. European energy market: shift from commodities to service and to technology • Energy efficiency: €40 bln in 2009 • Energy service: €10 bln in 2009 • Smart grids: €30 bln in 2009 • Renewable energy market: €50 bln in 2009 • Carbon markets: €70 bln in 2009 • EU as the global leader in new low-carbon energy Energy commodities market 2010 Energy service market 2030 Energy technology market 2050 7

  8. Russia in global energy sector • To achieve these goals, • Russia needs cooperation with European Union 8

  9. Key challenge for Russia: oil prices: wave dynamics and downward trend • Downward trend • From commodity market to service & technology market • Volatility reduction • The end of oil business Долл. 2009 г. за баррель Fact Stagnation scenario Reference scenario Innovative scenario 9

  10. EU and Russia cooperation: common opportunities • Creation ofcommon pan-European energy space is a key goal • Objective differences between Russia and EU should be regarded 10

  11. Thank you for your attention! Institute of Energy Strategy www.energystrategy.ru Tel. +7(495) 698-52-34 Е-mail: ies2@umaiI.ru

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