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SESONAL OUTLOOK FOR SUMMER 2 01 9

WMO RA VI WMO RA II RCC-Network. SESONAL OUTLOOK FOR SUMMER 2 01 9 The 15 th Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring-Assessment-Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII) 8-10 May 2019, Nanning, China Ganieva Ekaterina North Eurasia Climate Centre. http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru. CONTENT. About NEACC

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SESONAL OUTLOOK FOR SUMMER 2 01 9

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  1. WMO RA VI WMORA II RCC-Network SESONAL OUTLOOK FOR SUMMER 2019 The 15th Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring-Assessment-Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII) 8-10 May 2019, Nanning, China Ganieva Ekaterina North Eurasia Climate Centre http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  2. CONTENT About NEACC Seasonal forecasts 1.Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and El Nino 2.Atmosphere: General circulation 3.Temperature and precipitation: North Eurasia and areas under consideration 4. Verification Summary

  3. NEACCbackground NHMSs of CIS + Consortium of the Roshydromet organizations: 1. Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation 2. Institute of Global Climate and Ecology 3. Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre 4. A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory 5. Droughts Monitoring Centre, RussianResearchInstituteof Agricultural Meteorology 6. Main Computer Centre (Russian Federation) 7. Aviamettelecom (Russian Federation) For RA-VI Region NEACC functions as one of Long-Range Forecast nodes of the RA-VI Regional Climate Network.  For RA-II Region NEACC functions as a Multifunctional Regional Climate Center. NEACC is a contributor to FOCRA, PRESANORD, ARABCOF, PARCOF, MEDCOF, SEECOF The North Eurasia Climate Centre (NEACC) coordinated by the Roshydromet under the auspices of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).  NEACC was formally designated as a WMO RCC NEACC by WMO Executive Council in May 2013 after compliting demonstration phase

  4. Seasonal hydrodynamic models • Seasonal version of SL-AV model at Hydrometcentre of Russia The 28-level semi-Lagrangian finite-difference atmospheric prognostic global model developed at the Hydrometcenter of Russia and the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences SLAV-2008 (grid 0.72°х0.9°) is used operationally. The forecasting results are delivered as the GRADS maps (basic fields for different areas), and distributed via GTS GRIB code (full set of meteorological parameters on the grid 2.5ºx2.5º) at www.meteoinfo.ru. • Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Modelfrom MGO • The AGCM SL-AV and MGO The global spectral atmospheric general circulation model (T63L25) and an ensemble approach developed in the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO). The horizontal resolution of the model is 1.9°x1.9°, 25 levels. Ensemble size for the forecast is 10. The forecast ensemble is configured by the original and perturbed analysis fields of the HMC of Russia. SSTs are taken from the inertial forecasts. The maps of temperature and precipitation forecasts from Individual Atmospheric General Circulation Models of HMC of Russia and MGO are placed at the site of NEACC. The multi-model seasonal forecasts are presented too.

  5. Seasonal forecast for summer 2019

  6. OCEANIC FORECAST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) The IRI/CPC probabilistic ENSO forecast issued in April 2019. Nino 3.4 forecasts (120˚-170˚W, 5˚S-5˚N) LC MMELRF-WMO Lead Centre for MME LRF In the Indian Ocean: According to the forecasts of most centers the positive significant SST anomalies are found in the equatorial latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Pacific Ocean: The positive anomalies are forecasted in the equatorial latitudes, except for the west part of the ocean. The significant positive SST anomalies are expected in the north-east of the middle and higth latitudes. June-August 2019 Composite map of SST • Models: • GPC_Seoul • Toulouse • Montreal • Melbourne • ECMWF • Washington • Tokyo • Exeter • Moscow http://iri.columbia.edu/our- expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Most of models predict a weak El Nino for the summer 2019 (June-August). According to the CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic Forecast the probabilities for La Nina, neutral and El Nino conditions (using -0.5C and 0.5C thresholds) over the coming JJA2019 season are: 1%, 25% and74%. ENSO FORECASTS Forecast is issued in April 2019 https://www.wmolc.org/

  7. ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Russia • The most significant changes of ice cover there is in the Bering Sea where it had been nearly ice free the last month.  • The graph on the right side shows a decline of 2.7% of Monthly March ice extent for 1978 to 2019 per decade (based on NSIDC). Ice cover (thousands of km2) The position of the ice edge and areas of rarefied (<8/10) and cohesive (≥8/10) ice of the Arctic Ocean on 23.04.2019 based on the ice analysis of the US NIC and edge repeatability from 21-25.04 for the period 1979-2017 according to observations SSMR-SSM/I-SSMIS (NASATEAM algorithm) The 365 days daily window-smoothed values of the ice cover for the Arctic, Antarctic and the Earth from 10/26/1978 to 04/22/2019 based on SSMR-SSM / I-SSMIS http://www.aari.ru/

  8. GENERAL CIRCULATION June - August 2019 LC MMELRF-WMO Lead Centre for MME LRF Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast Composite mapof H-500 Deterministic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast Composite mapof H-500 • MODELS: • GPC_Seoul • Montreal • Melbourne • Exeter • ECMWF • Tokyo • Washington • Toulouse • Moscow • According to the forecasts of most centers negative anomalies are expected in mid-latitudes of the North Pacific ocean. • The positive anomalies are forecasted over north-east of Russia. The forecast is issued in April 2019 http://www.wmolc.org/

  9. THE GENERAL CIRCULATION: 500 hPa height Composite probabilities of categorical forecast outcomes for H500 seasonal anomalies (dm). Producer: HMC (SL-AV)+MGO June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 June - August 2019 The forecast is issued in April 2019 http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  10. GENERAL CIRCULATION LC MMELRF-WMO Lead Centre for MME LRF June - August2019 Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast Composite map of mean sea level pressure Deterministic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast Composite map of mean sea level pressure • Models: • GPC_Seoul • Montreal • Melbourne • Exeter • ECMWF • Tokyo • Washington • Toulouse • Moscow • The negative anomalies are forecasted over most of the Pacific ocean. • The positive anomalies are forecasted over south regions of Central Asia. https://www.wmolc.org/ The forecast is issued in April 2019

  11. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE Composite probabilities of categorical forecast outcomes for mslp seasonal anomalies (mb). Producer: HMC (SL-AV)+MGO June2019 July 2019 August 2019 June- August 2019 http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru The forecast is issued in April 2019

  12. INDICES OCSILLATION FORECASTS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CENTRE OF RUSSIA (SL-AV) East Atlantic (EA), West Atlantic (WA), Eurasian (EU), west Pacific (WP), Pacific-North American (PNA)oscillations (Wallace J. M., Gutzler D.S. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. – Mon. Wea. Rev., 1981, vol. 109, pp. 784-812). North Atlantic (NAO), Polac (POL) oscillations (Climate Prediction Centre of USA). http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  13. West Pacific Oscillation Composite anomaly charts for Summer season (NCEP/NCAR, Reanalysis -2, means: 1981-2010) Negativephase (WP < -0.54) Anomaly of H-500 Anomaly of MSLP http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  14. West Pacific Oscillation Composite anomaly charts for Summer season (NCEP/NCAR, Reanalysis -2, means: 1981-2010) Negativephase (WPO < -0.54) Precipitation Anomaly of T2m http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  15. FORECASTS OF AIR TEMPERATURE June - August 2019 LC MMELRF-WMO Lead Centre for MME LRF Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast Composite map of 2m temperature Deterministic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast Composite map of 2m temperature • Models: • GPC_Seoul • Washington • Montreal • Melbourne • Exeter • ECMWF • Tokyo • Moscow • According to the forecasts the positive anomalies are expected over the north-east of Russia. https://www.wmolc.org/ The forecast is issued in April2019

  16. ANOMALIES OF AIR TEMPERATURE Composite probabilities of categorical forecast outcomes for T2m (grad K) seasonal anomalies. Producer: HMC (SL-AV)+MGO July 2019 June2019 August 2019 June- August 2019 • According to the forecasts of HMC+MGO the temperature anomalies are forecasted near normal in the north of Siberia. http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru The forecast is issued in April 2019

  17. FORECASTS OF PRECIPITATION June - August 2019 LC MMELRF-WMO Lead Centre for MME LRF Deterministic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast Composite map of precipitation Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast Composite map: precipitation • Models: • GPC_Seoul • Washington • Montreal • Melbourne • Exeter • ECMWF • Tokyo • Moscow • According to the forecasts of the most of models the positive anomalies are expected in the some parts of the Central Asia. The forecast is issued in April 2019 https://www.wmolc.org/

  18. ANOMALIES OF PRECIPITATION Composite probabilities of categorical forecast outcomes for precipitation seasonal anomalies (mm/day). Producer: HMC (SL-AV)+MGO June2019 July 2019 August 2019 June- August 2019 • From HMC+MGO forecasts. Negative anomalies are seen in the south of Far East and the north-east of China for the first half of summer. http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru The forecast is issued in April 2019

  19. FORECAST VERIFICATION: H500 and Mean sea Level Pressure Verification scores are made on a historical material (1981-2010) for summer season. Guidance: Standardised Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts, SVSLRF, 2002. New Attachment II-8 to the Manual on the GDPFS (WMO-No. 485), Volume I. Verification characteristics are operationallypresented on the NEACC web-site:http://seakc.meteoinfo.ru. http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  20. FORECAST VERIFICATION: Temperature and Precipitation Verification scores are made on a historical material (1981-2010) for summer season. Guidance: Standardised Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts, SVSLRF, 2002. New Attachment II-8 to the Manual on the GDPFS (WMO-No. 485), Volume I. Verification characteristics are operationallypresented on the NEACC web-site:http://seakc.meteoinfo.ru. http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  21. SUMMARY • Most of the models predict occurrence positive SST anomalies in the equatorial latitudes of Pacific ocean. According to the forecast of CPC/IRI, the probabilities for La Nina, neutral and El Nino conditions (using -0.5C and 0.5C thresholds) over the coming JJA season are: 1%, 25% and74%.Most of the centers predict significant SST anomalies in the middle latitudes of the North Pacific Ocean. • HMC predicts the prevalence negative values of WP oscillations for summer 2019. It means prevalence of meridional forms of atmospheric circulation in the Far East and as a result weak monsoon activity in the Russian Far East and in the north-east of China at least for the first part of summer. • The summer season of 2019 is expected warmer than normal over themost of Asia. The most significant temperature anomalies are forecasted in the north-east of Russia. • There are a lot of contradictions and uncertainties in the forecasts of precipitation. The precise signal is marked in the south territories of Far East and the north-east of China, where thenegative anomalies are expected. http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  22. Thank you for your attention

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