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A Case Study of the 6 August 2012 962 hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone

A Case Study of the 6 August 2012 962 hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone . Eric Adamchick University at Albany, State University of New York Albany, New York. Motivation.

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A Case Study of the 6 August 2012 962 hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone

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  1. A Case Study of the 6 August 2012 962 hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone Eric Adamchick University at Albany, State University of New York Albany, New York

  2. Motivation Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area (Million Square km) from 1979 – 2012. Image courtesy of the Polar Research Group, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

  3. Motivation • The 962 hPa Arctic Ocean cyclone occurred when the Arctic sea ice area was at a record low. • If the loss of sea ice continues on the current trajectory what will be the effects on mid-latitude circulation patterns as well as local climates.

  4. 300-hPa Geopotential Height Anomalies. Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado from their Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/

  5. 850-hPa Temperature Anomalies. Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado from their Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/

  6. 300-hPa Vector Wind Anomalies. Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado from their Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/

  7. Cyclogenesis and Development • Warm air advection from antecedent cyclone shifted the thermal gradient poleward • Cyclogenesis of 962 hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone • Phasing of the cyclones’ vorticity and subsequent rapid deepening

  8. 120803/0600 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), QG Height Tendency 700-300 hPa Differential Thermal Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  9. L2 L1 120803/1800 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  10. 120803/1800 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [cool shading (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  11. 120804/1800 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)],NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  12. 120805/0000 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  13. 120805/0600 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  14. 120805/1200 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  15. 120805/1800 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  16. 120806/0000 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  17. 120806/0600 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  18. L1 L2 120804/1800 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  19. L1 L2 120805/0000 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  20. L1 L2 120805/0600 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  21. L 120805/1200 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  22. L 120805/1800 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  23. L 120806/0000 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  24. L 120806/0600 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  25. L 120806/1200 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  26. L 120806/1800 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.

  27. Summary • Warm air advection from the antecedent storm strengthened and shifted the anomalous baroclinic zone poleward. • Cyclogenesis occurred in a coupled jet environment collocated with the anomalous baroclinic zone. • Rapid intensification began when the vorticity from both storms phased and continued in the poleward exit region of a 60 m s-1 jet streak. • The 962 hPa Arctic Ocean cyclone occurred during a record minimum of Northern Hemispheric sea ice area.

  28. Future Research • Will storm frequency and strength increase in the absence of sea ice? • What will be the effects onglobal circulation patterns? • Will major storm tracks shift poleward? • What effects will this have on local climates?

  29. Acknowledgements • Dr. Kristen Corbosiero • Dr. Paul Roundy • Dr. Lance Bosart • Ross Lazear

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