China ’s Environment and Energy Strategy for Sustainable Development

1. China ’s Environment and Energy Strategy for Sustainable Development Emissions of Major Pollutants and GHGs in China XU Huaqing Energy Research Institute, NDRC Brookings Institution, Sep. 18, 2008

2. National Circumstances Major Challenges Emissions Scenarios Strategy Objectives Policies & Measures Preliminary Conclusions Outline

3. Huge population: By the end of 2005, the total population in Mainland China was 1.31 billion, accounting for 22% of the world total, 750 M people still live in villages. National Circumstances

4. 2. Low level of economic development: The GDP per capita of China in 2005 was USD 1,714, only ¼ of the world average, the annual per capita income of 23.65 million people living in villages was less than 683 RMB. National Circumstances Per capita of GDP in 2005 Source: IEA

5. 3. Low per capita energy consumption: In 2005, the commercial energy consumption per capita was about 1.3 toe, equal to 3/4 of world average and ¼ of the OECD countries. National Circumstances Per capita TPES in 2005 Source: IEA

6. 4. High emissions of major pollutants: The emissions of sulfur dioxide have already exceeded the environment capacities. In 2005, the total emission of sulfur dioxide was 25.49 Mt, increasing by 27.8% over the year 2000. National Circumstances SO2 emissions during 1980-2005

7. National Circumstances Source: William Chandler

8. 1. High employment pressure: Every year, about 10 M new employment opportunities need to be created in cities/towns, another 10 M people living in countryside move to cities/towns to find job. Major Challenges Total number of employed persons

9. 2. High coal-dominated energy mix: The primary energy consumption in 2005 was about 1,563 million toe, among which 68.9% came from coal, while the coal accounted for 27.8% of the world’s primary energy consumption. Major Challenges

10. Major Challenges 3. High growth rate and Low per capita CO2 emission: • In 2005, the CO2 emission per capita of China from fossil fuel was 3.88 tons, equal to 92% of the world average and 35% of the OECD countries.

11. Emissions Scenarios

12. Emissions Scenarios 1. Population growth and urbanization: Stabilized low level of birth rate; Peak between 2030-2040; Urbanization level of 70-80% by 2050; Add 700-800 million urban residents.

13. Emissions Scenarios 2. Economic development: Overriding priorities for Economic development and poverty eradication; Economic development goal for 2050; Low carbon development road, energy-intensive products; Change of main export commodities

14. Emissions Scenarios 3. Consumption pattern: Building a conservation-oriented society; Consumption pattern for transition stage; Automobiles and houses Possession of private passenger vehicles Per 100 urban households Air Conditioner

15. Emissions Scenarios 4.Technology innovation and progress: Focus on independent innovation; Locked-in effect of technology; Technology cooperation and transfer; New energy technology and CCS.

16. Emissions Scenarios 1. BAU Scenarios: Significant differences among the different studies; China's energy consumption demand will likely increase to about 5,000 Mtce in 2030, 6,500 Mtce by 2050; CO2 emissions from the fossil fuels combustion will be 150% higher than the 2005 level by 2050.

17. Emissions Scenarios 2. IEA Reference Scenario: Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 will increase 57% over 2005, with large share of the incremental emissions coming from China; It is projected that, without strong and effective policies and measures, by 2050 China’s CO2 emissions from the consumption and combustion of fossil fuels will be 80% higher than the 2005 level.

18. 3.Mitigation Scenarios: Set the tasks of controlling GHGs emissions in the 11th five-year plan; Low-carbon Economy; Stop the growth of GHG emissions between 2030-2040; Per capita CO2 emissions less than 6 tons by 2050. Emissions Scenarios

19. Strategy Objectives 1. Reducing targets for major pollutants: China endeavors to curb its total emissions of SO2 and NOx within the limitation of 14 Mt by 2030, approaching to the environmental capacity to meet the ambient air quality standards; By 2050, emissions of SO2 and NOx would be brought under control within the environmental capacity, thus SO2 emissions will be reduced to 12 Mt, and NOx to 11 Mt.

20. 2. Mitigation target for CO2 emissions: As a developing country at its initial stageof development, it is extremely challenging and costly for China to achieve the zero growth of CO2 emissions in around 2030; China is committed to a low-carbon economy under the framework of sustainable development and will do the best to reduce its carbon intensity of economy in terms of GDP by 80% below the 2005 level by the end of 2050. Strategy Objectives

21. 1.To fully understand the significance and urgency of reducing pollutant emissions and mitigation GHGs emissions with respect to the sustainable development: It is one of the important contents to improve sustainable development capacity and construct ecological civilization; To execute scientific development and build a socialist harmonious society; To promote transform of development mode; To build a resource-saving and environment-friendly society. Polices & Measures

22. 2. To give top priority to energy conservation and construct a low-carbon economy and society: To control energy demand; To adjust and optimize the economic structure; To fully implement key projects; To speed up technological development and promotion; To improve incentive policies and restraint mechanism; To enhance the conservation awareness of the public. Polices & Measures

23. 3.To adjust and optimize the energy structure, and dedicated to build a low-carbon energy system: Adjust and optimize the energy structure and to establish a clean, efficient and environmentally-friendly energy system; Hydropower is a very important resource; Nuclear energy as a key component of its national energy strategy; To Support the development and utilization of wind power, solar energy, geothermal energy, and ocean energy etc. Polices & Measures

24. 4. To boost the development and diffusion of advanced and applicable technologies, and to establish an energy technology development and innovation system to mitigate emissions: Accelerate the process of technology innovation; Strengthen international technology cooperation and transfer. Polices & Measures

25. 5. To develop and improve the environmental cost internalization mechanisms and other economic policies in favor of environmental protection and GHGs mitigation: Establish a system of environmental property rights; Rationalize the price system of resources; Establish ecological cost accounting and ecological compensation mechanism; Research on environmental tax; Research on emissions trading. Polices & Measures

26. Protecting the environment and effectively addressing climate changes have a bearing upon China's modernization construction as a whole and long-term development; China suffers an increasingly acute contradiction between energy development and the demand of reducing emission of major pollutants because of its coal-based energy structure and extensive energy consuming pattern; Preliminary Conclusions

27. The mission to control carbon dioxide emissions will pose a more and more stiff challenge to China’s energy development, and will become a key factor to promote the sustainable development of economy and society in China; Advancing the sustainable development in full scale and effectively controlling GHG emissions are the key measures of China to carry out its basic national policies on resource-conserving and environmental protection and to ensure national security; Preliminary Conclusions

28. China, through active dialogues, effective and concrete cooperation with the international community and relevant countries, is willing to make new contributions to the protection of the global climate system while achieving economic development. Preliminary Conclusions

29. Thank you!