Climate Services, Food Security, and Farmers

1. Climate Services, Food Security, and Farmers Robert Stefanski Chief Agricultural Meteorology Programme

2. World Meteorological Organization • United Nations agency for weather, climate, hydrology and water resources and related environmental issues. • 189 Members from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) • 10 major scientific & technical programmes (Secretariat) • 8 Technical Commissions advise & guide activities of programmes (Experts) • 6 Regional Associations involved in implementation

3. WMO Technical Commissions • Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM) • Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) • Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) • Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) • Commission for Climatology (CCl) • Commission for Hydrology (CHy) • Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO) • Joint WMO-IOC Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM)

7. Projections of Future Changes in Climate

8. Projections of Future Changes in Climate Projected warming in 21st century expected to be: • greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes; and • least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean

9. Global Potential Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture • Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in range of 1-3°C, but above this range, food production is projected to decrease. • At lower latitudes, especially in the seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease even small temperature increases (1-2°C), • Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes up to 1-3°C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some regions.

10. Global Potential Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture • Increases in the frequency of droughtsand floods projected to affect local crop production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes. • Due to warmer and more frequent hot days and nights, projected to have increased insect outbreaks impacting agriculture, forestryand ecosystems. • Adaptations such as altered cultivars &planting times allow low- & mid- to high-latitude cereal yields

11. Adaptation Measures to Climate Change • Changing planting dates; • Planting different varieties or crop species; • Development and promotion of alternative crops; • Developing new drought and heat-resistant varieties; • More use of intercropping; • Using sustainable fertilizer and tillage practices (improving soil drainage, no-till, etc) • Improved crop residue and weed management; • More use of water harvesting techniques, • Better pest and disease control for crops;

12. Adaptation Measures to Climate Change • Development of early-warning systems and protection measures for natural disasters (droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, etc); • Develop of risk management tools • Implementing new or improving existing irrigation systems (Reducing water leakage, soil moisture conservation - mulching); • Improved livestock management (Providing housing and shade, change in stocking rate, altered grazing and rotation of pasture); • More use of agroforestry practices; • Improved forest fire management (altered stand layout; dead timber salvaging; clearing undergrowth; prescribed burning);

13. Impact of Agrometeorogicalservices

14. Key Questions in AgroMeteorology • What are the weather / climate events that impact agricultural decision-making? • How to relate weather / climate information to meaningful agricultural actions / practices?

15. Users of Agrometeorological Information Any agricultural decision-maker: • International officials (i.e. Red Cross, WFP, UN) • Government officials • Extension agents • Farmers, ranchers, foresters, fishers • Media • General public

16. Economic impact using 3-7 Day Weather Forecasts in India

17. Climate Services and Agrometeorology • Historical Climate Data • Crop Information • Basic Soil Information Simple Crop Model Crop Advice for Rural Farmers

18. 2009 Seminar - Mali Met Service Presentation 18

19. 2009 Seminar – Farmers ask Questions 19

20. 2009 Seminar – Demonstration of Raingauge 20

21. Distribution of Rainguages to Nigerian Farmers

22. Crop yields and farm incomes for farmers taking management decisions with and without agrometeorological information, in the 2003–2004 season. 22 “Agriculture in Mali” in Climate Risk Management in Africa: Learning from Practice. Hellmuth, M.E., Moorhead, A., Thomson, M.C., and Williams, J. (eds) 2007 IRI

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24. www.wamis.org

25. Global Framework on Climate Services (GFCS)

26. Global Framework for Climate Services • Goal: • Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climateinformation and prediction into planning, policy and practice. WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3Geneva, Switzerland31 August–4 September 2009

27. Why a Framework for Climate Services? Infrastructural Capacities of Countries as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential, Full and Advanced Climate Services. • Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services.

28. Why a Framework for Climate Services? • Climate services do not get the last mile to those who need them the most.

29. Agriculture Disaster risk reduction Water Health Priorities

31. Thank Yourstefanski@wmo.intwww.wmo.int/agm