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Meteorology 415 Fall 2012

Meteorology 415 Fall 2012. Contest 2 – First Forecast(s) Great Falls, Montana. Great Falls, Montana. Great Falls, Montana. Great Falls, Montana - Observations. KGTF 021753Z 09009KT 10SM CLR 16/03 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP081 T01610028 10178 20111 50001=

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Meteorology 415 Fall 2012

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  1. Meteorology 415 Fall 2012 Contest 2 – First Forecast(s) Great Falls, Montana

  2. Great Falls, Montana

  3. Great Falls, Montana

  4. Great Falls, Montana - Observations • KGTF 021753Z 09009KT 10SM CLR 16/03 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP081 T01610028 10178 20111 50001= • KGTF 021853Z 07008KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP077 T01720028= • KGTF 021953Z VRB05KT 10SM CLR 19/03 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP064 T01940028= • KGTF 022053Z 03006KT 10SM CLR 21/02 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP055 T02110022 58018= • KGTF 022153Z 05010KT 10SM BKN110 21/02 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP050 T02110022= • KGTF 022253Z 07011KT 10SM FEW110 20/02 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP059 T02000022= • KGTF 022353Z 04011KT 10SM BKN100 BKN120 17/02 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP071 T01720022 10222 20144 53005= • KGTF 030053Z 03021G27KT 10SM OVC100 16/02 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 03027/0053 SLP089 T01560017= • KGTF 030153Z 36018G24KT 10SM FEW070 SCT100 BKN110 09/04 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 36030/0109 PRESRR SLP122 T00940039= • KGTF 030248Z 35017G22KT 10SM BKN015 OVC100 08/04 A2996 RMK AO2= • KGTF 030253Z 35013G22KT 10SM BKN015 OVC100 08/04 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP143 T00830044 51042= • KGTF 030341Z 36011KT 9SM -RA OVC013 08/05 A2998 RMK AO2 RAB20 P0001=

  5. Great Falls, Montana - Observations • KGTF 030253Z 35013G22KT 10SM BKN015 OVC100 08/04 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP143 T00830044 51042= • KGTF 030341Z 36011KT 9SM -RA OVC013 08/05 A2998 RMK AO2 RAB20 P0001= • KGTF 030353Z 34012KT 10SM -RA OVC013 07/05 A3000 RMK AO2 RAB20 SLP163 P0001 T00720050= • KGTF 030402Z 02011KT 9SM -RA BKN015 OVC022 07/05 A2998 RMK AO2 P0001= • KGTF 030353Z 34012KT 10SM -RA OVC013 07/05 A3000= • KGTF 030427Z 01014KT 9SM -RA FEW007 BKN010 OVC026 06/04 A2998 RMK AO2 P0001= • KGTF 030453Z 34017G22KT 5SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC010 06/04 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP166 P0002 T00560039= • KGTF 030520Z 35018KT 10SM -RA FEW006 BKN015 OVC021 05/03 A3000= • KGTF 030520Z 35018KT 10SM -RA FEW006 BKN015 OVC021 05/03 A3000 RMK AO2 P0000= • KGTF 030542Z 34015KT 9SM -RA BKN006 BKN013 OVC020 04/03 A3002 RMK AO2 CIG 005V009 P0000= • KGTF 030553Z 35018G24KT 6SM -RA BR SCT006 OVC020 03/02 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP168 P0001 60004 T00330022 10172 20033 51004= • KGTF 030603Z 35016KT 7SM -RA BKN006 OVC020 03/02 A3002 RMK AO2 P0000= • KGTF 030553Z 35018G24KT 6SM -RA BR SCT006 OVC020 03/02 A3001=

  6. Great Falls, Montana - Observations • KGTF 030603Z 35016KT 7SM -RA BKN006 OVC020 03/02 A3002= • KGTF 030639Z 33017G24KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC006 01/M01 A3005 RMK AO2 RAE34SNB34 P0004= • KGTF 030650Z 35012KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC006 01/M01 A3005 RMK AO2 RAE34SNB34 P0007 402220006= • KGTF 030653Z 35011KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC006 01/M01 A3005 RMK AO2 RAE34SNB34 SLP186 P0007 T00061006 402220006= • KGTF 030707Z 29012KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC004 01/00 A3009 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0002= • KGTF 030718Z 30010KT 2SM -SN BR OVC004 01/M01 A3009= • KGTF 030718Z 30010KT 2SM -SN BR OVC004 01/M01 A3009 RMK AO2 P0003= • KGTF 030730Z 34008KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR SCT004 OVC010 01/M01 A3009 RMK AO2 P0004= • KGTF 030738Z 34006KT 1SM -SN BR SCT004 OVC008 01/00 A3009 RMK AO2 P0005= • KGTF 030753Z 34006KT 1SM -SN BR VV008 01/00 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP196 P0008 T00060000= • KGTF 030814Z 34009KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC007 01/M01 A3011 RMK AO2 P0003= • KGTF 030840Z 33009KT 2SM -SN BR SCT004 OVC007 01/M01 A3011 RMK AO2 P0004= • KGTF 030846Z 34008KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC004 01/M01 A3011 RMK AO2 P0005= • KGTF 030853Z 34010KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC004 01/M01 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP199 P0005 60020 T00061006 53020= • KGTF 030900Z 34010KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR OVC004 01/M01 A3012 RMK AO2 P0000= • KGTF 030853Z 34010KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC004 01/M01 A3011= • KGTF 030932Z 33009KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC004 01/M01 A3014 RMK AO2 P0002= • KGTF 030953Z 35011KT 2SM -SN BR OVC004 01/M01 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP213 P0003 T00061006= • KGTF 031008Z 34009KT 3SM -SN BR OVC004 01/00 A3016 RMK AO2 P0000= • KGTF 031053Z 33008KT 5SM -SN BR OVC004 01/00 A3018 RMK AO2 SLP225 P0000 T00060000= • KGTF 031153Z 33008KT 9SM OVC004 01/00 A3022 RMK AO2 SNE23 CIG 003V007 SLP242 P0000 60023 70027 T00110000 10011 20006 51031=

  7. Great Falls, Montana – Surface Pattern

  8. Great Falls, Montana – Satellite

  9. Great Falls, Montana – Radar

  10. Great Falls, Montana

  11. Great Falls, Montana – Models

  12. Verification

  13. Survey Path Scores

  14. Career Path Scores

  15. Up Close and Personal - GTF

  16. Lessons Learned - GTF Convergence lines in rugged terrain will produce a variety of precipitation distributions which is not likely to be well forecast by even the meso-models. Do not underestimate the cooling effects of evaporation and upslope – but remember that early season snows usually occur very close to 32F/0C Surprisingly, the ENAM and EAVN had a better handle on the QPF for Great Falls – so there is tangible value in the DMO products!

  17. Fort Wayne, Indiana

  18. Fort Wayne, Indiana

  19. Fort Wayne, Indiana- Observations • KFWA 021754Z 05009KT 6SM BR OVC007 14/13 A2983 RMK AO2 DZB26E44 SLP102 P0000 60001 T01440133 10144 20122 53000= • KFWA 021854Z 06009KT 7SM OVC007 15/14 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP097 T01500139= • KFWA 021954Z 05009KT 7SM OVC009 16/14 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP096 T01560139= • KFWA 022054Z 05009KT 8SM OVC009 16/14 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP098 T01610144 55002= • KFWA 022137Z 07008KT 7SM -RA OVC011 16/14 A2984 RMK AO2 RAB37 P0000= • KFWA 022154Z 08005KT 4SM -RA BR OVC011 16/15 A2984 RMK AO2 RAB37DZB45E49 SLP104 P0000 T01610150= • KFWA 022241Z 05005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC011 16/15 A2985 RMK AO2 RAE2157B36DZB13E36 P0001= • KFWA 022254Z 06006KT 1 3/4SM -RA BR OVC011 16/15 A2986 RMK AO2 RAE2157B36DZB13E36 SLP109 P0001 T01610150= • KFWA 022311Z 05006KT 2SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN011 OVC019 16/15 A2986 RMK AO2 P0000= • KFWA 022338Z 05006KT 2 1/2SM -DZ BKN008 BKN019 OVC060 16/15 A2986 RMK AO2 RAE12DZB14 P0000= • KFWA 022354Z 05006KT 3SM BR OVC008 16/15 A2986 RMK AO2 RAE12DZB14E52 SLP110 P0000 60001 T01560150 10161 20150 51010=

  20. Fort Wayne, Indiana- Observations • KFWA 022354Z 05006KT 3SM BR OVC008 16/15 A2986 RMK AO2 RAE12DZB14E52 SLP110 P0000 60001 T01560150 10161 20150 51010= • KFWA 030054Z 06007KT 4SM BR OVC006 16/16 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP114 T01610156= • KFWA 030154Z 07008KT 4SM BR OVC006 16/16 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP121 T01610156= • KFWA 030242Z 07005KT 4SM BR BKN010 OVC015 16/15 A2990 RMK AO2 CIG 007V013= • KFWA 030254Z 07005KT 5SM BR OVC010 16/15 A2990 RMK AO2 CIG 007V012 SLP124 T01610150 51014= • KFWA 030318Z 09003KT 4SM -RA BR OVC008 16/15 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB06 CIG 006V011 P0000= • KFWA 030330Z 08003KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC008 16/15 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB06 CIG 006V010 P0001= • KFWA 030354Z 00000KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR BKN008 BKN016 OVC028 16/16 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB06 SLP128 P0004 T01560156= • KFWA 030411Z 00000KT 1 1/4SM -RA BR BKN004 BKN014 OVC031 16/16 A2991 RMK AO2 R05/5500FT P0003= • KFWA 030411Z 00000KT 1 1/4SM -RA BR BKN004 BKN014 OVC031 16/16A2991= • KFWA 030432Z 09003KT 2SM -RA BR FEW006 BKN018 OVC024 16/15 A2991 RMK AO2 P0003= • KFWA 030454Z 10003KT 1 1/2SM BR FEW001 BKN006 OVC018 16/16 A2991 RMK AO2 RAE33 SLP128 P0003 T01560156 401610122= • KFWA 030554Z 13004KT 2SM -DZ BR OVC005 16/16 A2992 RMK AO2 DZB44 CIG 003V007 SLP131 P0000 60007 T01560156 10161 20156 51007=

  21. Fort Wayne, Indiana- Observations • KFWA 030601Z 13005KT 1 3/4SM -DZ BR OVC003 16/16 A2992 RMK AO2 CIG 002V007 R05/5500FT P0000= • KFWA 030554Z 13004KT 2SM -DZ BR OVC005 16/16 A2992= • KFWA 030615Z 10005KT 1 1/4SM -RA BR OVC002 16/16 A2992 RMK AO2 DZE04RAB04 VIS 1V2 R05/2200FT P0000= • KFWA 030624Z 11005KT 1 1/4SM -DZ BR OVC002 16/16 A2992 RMK AO2 DZE04B24RAB04E24 R05/3500FT P0000= • KFWA 030654Z 11004KT 1 1/2SM -DZ BR BKN002 OVC060 16/16 A2992 RMK AO2 DZE04B24RAB04E24 SLP131 R05/6000FT P0000 T01560156= • KFWA 030728Z 00000KT 1SM BR BKN002 BKN065 15/15 A2992= • KFWA 030728Z 00000KT 1SM BR BKN002 BKN065 15/15 A2992 RMK AO2 DZE28 VIS 1/2V1 1/2 R05/1600FT P0000= • KFWA 030733Z 00000KT 1/2SM FG BKN002 BKN070 15/15 A2992 RMK AO2 DZE28 R05/1200FT P0000= • KFWA 030738Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG BKN002 BKN075 15/15 A2992 RMK AO2 DZE28 R05/1000FT P0000= • KFWA 030754Z 16003KT 1/8SM FG VV002 14/14 A2992 RMK AO2 DZE28 SLP132 R05/0700FT P0000 T01440144= • KFWA 030804Z 00000KT 1/16SM FG VV001 15/15 A2993 RMK AO2 R05/0400FT= • KFWA 030823Z 16004KT 1/4SM FG BKN001 OVC042 14/14 A2993 RMK AO2 R05/1800FT= • KFWA 030830Z 17004KT 1/2SM FG BKN001 BKN042 14/14 A2993 RMK AO2 R05/5000FT= • KFWA 030835Z 18004KT 1 1/2SM BR SCT001 BKN042 14/14 A2993 RMK AO2= • KFWA 030854Z 19006KT 3SM BR FEW002 OVC040 14/14 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 60000 T01440144 53006= • KFWA 030954Z 18007KT 4SM BR OVC040 15/14 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP143 T01500144= • KFWA 031054Z 20007KT 5SM BR OVC038 14/13 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP149 T01440133= • KFWA 031154Z 20005KT 5SM BR OVC038 14/13 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP154 60000 70009 T01440133 10156 20144 51016= • KFWA 031254Z 18006KT 8SM BKN016 OVC034 14/13 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP160 T01440133=

  22. Fort Wayne, Indiana– Surface Pattern

  23. Fort Wayne, Indiana– Satellite

  24. Fort Wayne, Indiana– Radar

  25. Fort Wayne, Indiana – Rainfall

  26. Fort Wayne, Indiana– Models

  27. Verification

  28. Career Path Scores

  29. Up Close and Personal

  30. Lessons Learned - FWA • A ‘lazy’ lifting wave will leave a long trail of moisture in the deep southerly flow. • Be watchful as the main wave weakens for ‘predicted’ shifting winds as this likely indicates the passage of a trough axis – a potential convergence zone • ‘Tis fog season and when it’s rained for awhile, expect patches of deep dense fog. • The favored location for residual rainfall in an opening wave is on the northwest flank of the shrinking low pressure system.

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