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Meteorology 415

Meteorology 415. Contest 2 Detroit, MI and Billings, MT October 13, 2011. Detroit, MI. Detroit, MI.

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Meteorology 415

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  1. Meteorology 415 Contest 2 Detroit, MI and Billings, MT October 13, 2011

  2. Detroit, MI

  3. Detroit, MI FAA Identifier: DTW Lat/Long: 42-12-44.8000N / 083-21-12.2000W42-12.746667N / 083-21.203333W42.2124444 / -83.3533889(estimated) Elevation: 645 ft. / 196.6 m (surveyed) Variation: 06W (1990) From city: 15 miles S of DETROIT, MI

  4. Motown – Music City • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0HhHva8ZcY

  5. Detroit Observations • KDTW 131753Z 17007KT 7SM SCT030 BKN070 BKN120 19/13 A2959 RMK AO2 SLP018 • T01890133 10189 20144 58021= • KDTW 131853Z 11005KT 8SM SCT024 BKN038 BKN100 19/13 A2956 RMK AO2 SLP010 • T01890128= • KDTW 131900Z 10005KT 8SM BKN024 OVC036 19/13 A2956 RMK AO2= • KDTW 131853Z 11005KT 8SM SCT024 BKN038 BKN100 19/13 A2956= • KDTW 131900Z 10005KT 8SM BKN024 OVC036 19/13 A2956= • KDTW 131908Z 12004KT 8SM SCT024 BKN036 19/13 A2956 RMK AO2= • KDTW 131953Z 13009KT 9SM BKN037 OVC060 19/13 A2955 RMK AO2 SLP004 T01890128= • KDTW 132053Z 13007KT 10SM BKN035 BKN100 BKN200 19/12 A2953 RMK AO2 SLP997 • T01890122 56020= • KDTW 132153Z 11004KT 9SM SCT036 BKN050 BKN100 18/12 A2951 RMK AO2 SLP990 • T01830122= • KDTW 132253Z 13004KT 8SM SCT034 BKN050 OVC100 18/13 A2950 RMK AO2 SLP987 • T01830128= • KDTW 132353Z 10004KT 10SM FEW035 BKN085 OVC100 18/12 A2948 RMK AO2 SLP982 • T01780117 10194 20178 56015= • KDTW 140053Z 10005KT 10SM SCT038 BKN050 OVC075 17/12 A2948 RMK AO2 SLP980 • T01720122= • KDTW 140153Z 11003KT 7SM -RA BKN035 BKN045 OVC050 17/13 A2946 RMK AO2 RAB49 • SLP975 P0000 T01670128= • KDTW 140253Z 09004KT 8SM FEW043 OVC065 16/13 A2944 RMK AO2 RAE08 SLP966 P0000 • 60000 T01610133 58015= • KDTW 140337Z 12005KT 7SM BKN010 OVC033 16/13 A2942 RMK AO2=

  6. Detroit Observations • KDTW 140353Z 10003KT 7SM BKN010 OVC045 16/14 A2941 RMK AO2 RAB47E51 SLP958 • P0000 T01610139= • KDTW 140410Z 17005KT 1 3/4SM R04R/6000VP6000FT +RA BR BKN010 BKN027 OVC045 • 16/14 A2941 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 4 RAB05 P0000= • KDTW 140410Z 17005KT 1 3/4SM R04R/6000VP6000FT +RA BR BKN010BKN027 OVC045 16/14 • A2941= • KDTW 140417Z 17005KT 1SM R04R/P6000FT +RA BR BKN008 OVC027 16/14 A2941 RMK AO2 • TWR VIS 2 1/2 RAB05 P0002 $= • KDTW 140417Z 17005KT 1SM R04R/P6000FT +RA BR BKN008 OVC027 16/14A2941= • KDTW 140427Z 17008KT 1 3/4SM RA BR SCT008 BKN014 OVC035 16/14 A2940 RMK AO2 TWR • VIS 2 1/2 RAB05 P0008 $= • KDTW 140427Z 17008KT 1 3/4SM RA BR SCT008 BKN014 OVC035 16/14A2940= • KDTW 140444Z 16006KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN029 OVC060 16/14 A2939 RMK AO2 • TWR VIS 4 RAB05 P0009 $= • KDTW 140444Z 16006KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN029 OVC060 16/14A2939= • KDTW 140453Z 18006KT 4SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN029 OVC060 16/14 A2938 RMK AO2 RAB05 • SLP948 P0009 T01610144 401940144 $= • KDTW 140459Z 17005KT 5SM -RA BR SCT012 BKN038 OVC070 16/14 A2938 RMK AO2 P0000 • $= • KDTW 140453Z 18006KT 4SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN029 OVC060 16/14 A2938= • KDTW 140459Z 17005KT 5SM -RA BR SCT012 BKN038 OVC070 16/14 A2938= • KDTW 140531Z 13003KT 6SM -RA BR SCT009 BKN014 OVC055 16/14 A2937 RMK AO2 P0000 • $= • KDTW 140553Z 15005KT 6SM -RA BR SCT009 BKN014 OVC055 16/14 A2936 RMK AO2 SLP939 • P0000 60009 T01560144 10178 20156 58026 $= • KDTW 140614Z 14005KT 4SM BR SCT007 BKN017 OVC065 16/14 A2935 RMK AO2 RAE09 • P0000 $= • KDTW 140653Z 18005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR SCT007 BKN017 OVC065 16/14 A2934 RMK AO2 • TWR VIS 4 RAE09B44 SLP934 P0000 T01560144 $= • KDTW 140658Z 18008KT 1 1/4SM -RA BR SCT007 BKN011 OVC034 16/14 A2934 RMK AO2 • TWR VIS 2 P0000 $= • KDTW 140653Z 18005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR SCT007 BKN017 OVC065 16/14 A2934= • KDTW 140658Z 18008KT 1 1/4SM -RA BR SCT007 BKN011 OVC034 16/14A2934=

  7. Detroit Observations • KDTW 140720Z 22006KT 1 3/4SM -RA BR BKN007 BKN011 OVC034 16/14 A2933 RMK AO2 • TWR VIS 2 P0001 $= • KDTW 140720Z 22006KT 1 3/4SM -RA BR BKN007 BKN011 OVC034 16/14A2933= • KDTW 140750Z 26016G25KT 2 1/2SM BR BKN007 OVC011 14/12 A2933 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 4 • RAE47 P0001 $= • KDTW 140753Z 27015G25KT 2 1/2SM BR BKN007 OVC011 14/12 A2933 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 4 • RAE47 SLP930 P0001 T01390122 $= • KDTW 140759Z 27014G24KT 6SM BR SCT007 BKN021 OVC045 14/12 A2933 RMK AO2 $= • KDTW 140753Z 27015G25KT 2 1/2SM BR BKN007 OVC011 14/12 A2933= • KDTW 140759Z 27014G24KT 6SM BR SCT007 BKN021 OVC045 14/12 A2933= • KDTW 140853Z 25009KT 6SM -RA BR SCT007 BKN025 OVC045 14/12 A2935 RMK AO2 RAB03 • SLP937 P0000 60001 T01390117 55002 $= • KDTW 140900Z 25009KT 10SM -RA SCT014 OVC055 13/12 A2935 RMK AO2 P0000 $= • KDTW 140853Z 25009KT 6SM -RA BR SCT007 BKN025 OVC045 14/12 A2935= • KDTW 140900Z 25009KT 10SM -RA SCT014 OVC055 13/12 A2935= • KDTW 140925Z 25009KT 10SM FEW009 BKN022 OVC070 14/12 A2935 RMK AO2 RAE02 P0000 • $= • KDTW 140953Z 24010KT 10SM FEW009 BKN022 OVC060 14/12 A2936 RMK AO2 RAE02 SLP940 • P0000 T01390117 $= • KDTW 141014Z 24009KT 10SM FEW012 BKN032 OVC060 14/12 A2936 RMK AO2 $= • KDTW 141053Z 23012KT 10SM SCT014 BKN032 OVC060 14/11 A2937 RMK AO2 SLP944 • T01390111 $= • KDTW 141127Z 23011KT 10SM SCT018 BKN028 OVC070 14/11 A2937 RMK AO2 $= • KDTW 141145Z 23012KT 10SM SCT022 BKN038 OVC075 14/11 A2938 RMK AO2 $= • KDTW 141153Z 23011KT 10SM SCT022 BKN038 OVC075 14/11 A2938 RMK AO2 SLP946 60001 • 70010 T01390106 10156 20133 52008 $=

  8. Guidance

  9. Synoptic Pattern

  10. Surface Analysis

  11. Radar

  12. Verifications

  13. Standings for Detroit

  14. Standings for Detroit

  15. Up close and personal

  16. Detroit – Lessons Learned • Frontal passages in the early morning hours during the cold season tend to lack moisture (total amount) • Aviation Guidance (LAMP) is an excellent tool for estimating ceilings and visibility • A rapidly strengthening cyclone produces much wind, but if it passes to the north, not much liquid.

  17. Billings, MT

  18. Billings, MT FAA Identifier: BIL Lat/Long: 45-48-27.6000N / 108-32-34.4000W45-48.460000N / 108-32.573333W45.8076667 / -108.5428889(estimated) Elevation: 3652 ft. / 1113.1 m (surveyed) Variation: 14E (1990) From city: 2 miles NW of BILLINGS, MT

  19. Big Sky Country • ain't gonna work on maggie's farm no more

  20. Billings Observations • KBIL 151153Z 26004KT 10SM BKN120 04/01 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP125 T00440006 10061 • 20028 56013= • KBIL 151253Z 21009KT 10SM FEW080 BKN100 03/01 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP120 T00330006= • KBIL 151353Z 21005KT 10SM FEW070 BKN120 03/01 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP112 VIRGA SHRA • DSNT W-NE T00280006= • KBIL 151453Z 31009KT 10SM FEW024 BKN090 OVC110 05/02 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND • 32026/1423 RAB32E53 PRESRR SLP132 VIRGA VCSH ALQDS P0000 60000 T00500017 53001= • KBIL 151553Z 33004KT 10SM FEW050 SCT100 BKN120 07/04 A2990 RMK AO2 RAB03E18 • SLP136 VIRGA W-N-SE VCSH N-SE P0001 T00670039= • KBIL 151653Z 02008KT 10SM FEW020 SCT090 BKN110 07/04 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB02E10 • SLP141 VIRGA DSNT NW-N P0000 T00720039= • KBIL 151753Z 03014KT 10SM FEW013 SCT080 BKN110 08/04 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB09E42 • SLP148 VIRGA ALQDS P0000 60001 T00830044 10083 20028 53016= • KBIL 151853Z 03011G16KT 10SM -RA SCT015 BKN070 BKN090 09/04 A2997 RMK AO2 RAB43 • SLP154 P0000 T00890044= • KBIL 151953Z 02008KT 10SM -RA FEW015 SCT041 BKN065 08/04 A2998 RMK AO2 RAE17B48 • SLP162 P0001 T00780044= • KBIL 152053Z 03006KT 10SM -RA FEW015 BKN045 BKN075 07/06 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP165 • P0003 60004 T00720056 51015= • KBIL 152133Z 00000KT 8SM RA FEW006 BKN050 07/06 A3001 RMK AO2 VIS LWR NE-E • P0004= • KBIL 152153Z 11004KT 10SM -RA SCT005 BKN050 OVC070 07/06 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP174 • P0004 T00670061= • KBIL 152253Z 00000KT 10SM -RA FEW005 BKN055 OVC070 07/06 A3003 RMK AO2 RAE17B52 • SLP182 P0001 T00670056= • KBIL 152353Z 17003KT 10SM -RA FEW005 SCT009 BKN060 07/06 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP184 • P0002 60011 T00670061 10089 20067 51015=

  21. Billings Observations • KBIL 152353Z 17003KT 10SM -RA FEW005 SCT009 BKN060 07/06 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP184 P0002 60011 T00670061 10089 • 20067 51015= • KBIL 160053Z 00000KT 10SM FEW005 SCT023 OVC065 07/05 A3005 RMK AO2 RAE09 SLP188 P0000 T00670050= • KBIL 160153Z 17003KT 10SM -RA FEW026 BKN065 OVC075 07/05 A3006 RMK AO2 RAB46 SLP193 P0000 T00720050= • KBIL 160253Z 00000KT 10SM BKN075 BKN090 07/06 A3008 RMK AO2 RAE0156 SLP199 P0000 60000 T00670056 53014= • KBIL 160353Z 00000KT 10SM SCT065 OVC085 07/05 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP205 T00670050= • KBIL 160453Z 06004KT 10SM OVC070 07/04 A3012 RMK AO2 SLP208 T00670044= • KBIL 160553Z VRB03KT 10SM OVC085 07/04 A3013 RMK AO2 SLP210 60000 T00670044 10072 20061 51014= • KBIL 160653Z 09004KT 10SM SCT080 05/03 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP214 T00500028 400890028= • KBIL 160753Z 02003KT 10SM BKN080 05/02 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP219 T00500022= • KBIL 160853Z 00000KT 10SM SCT075 05/01 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP222 T00500006 51007= • KBIL 160953Z 00000KT 10SM BKN075 04/00 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP223 T00390000= • KBIL 161053Z 00000KT 10SM SCT080 04/M01 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP219 T00391006= • KBIL 161153Z 35003KT 10SM SCT080 03/00 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP220 70012 T00330000 10067 20028 56004=

  22. Guidance

  23. Surface Analysis

  24. Radar

  25. Synoptic Pattern

  26. Upper Air Pattern

  27. Verifications

  28. Standings for Billings

  29. Up Close and Personal

  30. Billings – Lessons Learned • Predicting a ‘jet streak’ three days in advance is challenging, yet the guidance was in the ‘ballpark’. • A jet streak circulation may be more pronounced when the streak is oriented parallel to nearby high terrain (such as the Big Horn Mts). • Evaporative cooling plays a major role in temperatures on the east slopes of the Rockies.

  31. Weekly Winners (Oct 11-13)

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