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Meteorology 415 Fall 2012

Meteorology 415 Fall 2012. Forecast Review: Tuesday, October 23, 2012 City One: Redding, California. Redding, California. Population (2011) • Total 92,328 • Density 1,500/ sq mi (580/km2) • Demonym Reddingite. Redding Observations.

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Meteorology 415 Fall 2012

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  1. Meteorology 415Fall 2012 Forecast Review: Tuesday, October 23, 2012 City One: Redding, California

  2. Redding, California • Population (2011) • • Total 92,328 • • Density 1,500/sq mi (580/km2) • • DemonymReddingite

  3. Redding Observations • KRDD 231753Z 20007KT 10SM BKN017 11/07 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP164 T01060067 10106 20067 • 51013= • KRDD 231753Z 20007KT 10SM BKN017 11/07 A3002= • KRDD 231853Z 21009KT 10SM BKN024 12/06 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP164 T01170061= • KRDD 231853Z 21009KT 10SM BKN024 12/06 A3002= • KRDD 231953Z 18008KT 10SM SCT032 SCT039 BKN060 12/05 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP160 T01220050= • KRDD 231953Z 18008KT 10SM SCT032 SCT039 BKN060 12/05 A3000= • KRDD 232053Z 17012G15KT 10SM SCT040 SCT050 BKN060 14/04 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP154 • T01390039 58009= • KRDD 232053Z 17012G15KT 10SM SCT040 SCT050 BKN060 14/04 A2999= • KRDD 232153Z 18010KT 10SM FEW044 BKN080 14/03 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP149 T01440033= • KRDD 232153Z 18010KT 10SM FEW044 BKN080 14/03 A2998= • KRDD 232253Z 18011KT 10SM SCT070 BKN090 14/03 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP146 T01440028= • KRDD 232253Z 18011KT 10SM SCT070 BKN090 14/03 A2997= • KRDD 232353Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB30E39 SLP142 P0000 • 60000 T01390022 10150 20106 58012= • KRDD 232353Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995=

  4. Redding Observations • KRDD 232353Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB30E39 SLP142 P0000 • 60000 T01390022 10150 20106 58012= • KRDD 232353Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995= • KRDD 240053Z 16007KT 10SM SCT065 OVC090 13/03 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP140 T01330028= • KRDD 240053Z 16007KT 10SM SCT065 OVC090 13/03 A2995= • KRDD 240153Z 17011KT 10SM OVC090 13/03 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T01280033= • KRDD 240153Z 17011KT 10SM OVC090 13/03 A2994= • KRDD 240253Z 17012KT 10SM SCT060 OVC090 13/03 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T01280033 56005= • KRDD 240253Z 17012KT 10SM SCT060 OVC090 13/03 A2994= • KRDD 240453Z AUTO 18012G18KT 10SM -RA OVC055 12/05 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB25 SLP139 P0000 • T01170050= • KRDD 240453Z AUTO 18012G18KT 10SM -RA OVC055 12/05 A2994= • KRDD 240453Z AUTO 18012G18KT 10SM -RA OVC055 12/05 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB25 SLP139 P0000 • T01170050= • KRDD 240553Z AUTO 20007KT 10SM -RA OVC050 12/05 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP146 P0001 60001 • T01170050 10139 20117 53008=

  5. Redding Observations • KRDD 240553Z AUTO 20007KT 10SM -RA OVC050 12/05 A2996= • KRDD 240653Z AUTO 20006KT 10SM -RA OVC050 11/06 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP143 P0002 T01060061= • KRDD 240653Z AUTO 20006KT 10SM -RA OVC050 11/06 A2996= • KRDD 240753Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA OVC046 09/07 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP147 P0001 T00940072 • 401500067= • KRDD 240753Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA OVC046 09/07 A2997= • KRDD 240853Z AUTO 17007KT 10SM -RA BKN045 OVC060 10/07 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP146 P0000 • 60003 T01000072 53002= • KRDD 240853Z AUTO 17007KT 10SM -RA BKN045 OVC060 10/07 A2997= • KRDD 240953Z AUTO 18010KT 8SM -RA OVC041 09/07 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 P0002 T00940072= • KRDD 240953Z AUTO 18010KT 8SM -RA OVC041 09/07 A2998= • KRDD 241053Z AUTO 18008KT 10SM -RA FEW017 BKN042 OVC049 09/07 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 • P0007 T00890072= • KRDD 241053Z AUTO 18008KT 10SM -RA FEW017 BKN042 OVC049 09/07 A2998= • KRDD 241153Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM FEW019 BKN075 OVC085 09/07 A2999 RMK AO2 RAE03 SLP154 • P0000 60012 70013 T00890072 10117 20089 51007= • KRDD 241153Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM FEW019 BKN075 OVC085 09/07 A2999=

  6. Surface Conditions - Redding Organized low pressure systems require more energetic waves aloft….

  7. Satellite View - Redding

  8. Radar - Redding The strength of a West Coast disturbance can be measured by how much its precipitation signature does NOT conform to the topography…

  9. Upper Air - Redding

  10. Model Guidance Be careful of DMO in rugged terrain since the nearest grid point may be in a different climate zone 

  11. Verifications - Redding

  12. Scores - Survey

  13. Scores - Career

  14. Up Close and Personal

  15. Lessons Learned - Redding • The strength of the upper level disturbance determines the amount of lift/ vertical motions • A prolonged west or southwest flow is needed for heavy precipitation in the northern end of the Central Valley • Temperatures do not vary much under mostly cloudy skies day and night. • Winds are usually light, unless it is from the south or mixing down from aloft. • MOS is very good in timing fronts coming into northern California.

  16. Meteorology 415Fall 2012 Forecast Review: Tuesday, October 23, 2012 City Two: Binghamton, New York

  17. Binghamton, NY

  18. Binghamton Observations • KBGM 231753Z 12006KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC010 09/08 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP185 P0005 60016 • T00890083= • KBGM 231814Z 14005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN012 09/08 A3006= • KBGM 231829Z 14005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN041 BKN055 OVC065 09/08 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS • 3 P0001= • KBGM 231853Z 16004KT 2SM -RA BR FEW048 OVC060 09/09 A3006 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 1/2 • SLP183 P0004 T00940089= • KBGM 231953Z 13004KT 1SM RA BR BKN017 BKN046 OVC060 10/09 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP178 P0010 • T01000089 RVRNO= • KBGM 232001Z 14006KT 1/2SM RA FG BKN024 BKN046 OVC055 10/09 A3004 RMK AO2 P0003 RVRNO= • KBGM 232014Z 15004KT 1/4SM RA FG BKN025 BKN046 OVC065 10/09 A3004 RMK AO2 P0005 RVRNO= • KBGM 232053Z 15004KT 1/2SM RA FG SCT030 BKN050 OVC065 10/09 A3003 RMK AO2 SLP175 • P0015 60029 T01000094 58008 RVRNO= • KBGM 232153Z 00000KT 1 1/4SM -RA BR OVC037 11/10 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP183 P0006 T01060100= • KBGM 232253Z 18003KT 3SM -RA BR SCT022 OVC027 11/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP183 P0005 • T01110106= • KBGM 232353Z 17003KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC017 12/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP182 P0002 60042 • T01170106 10117 20089 50001=

  19. Binghamton Observations • KBGM 232353Z 17003KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC017 12/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP182 P0002 60042 • T01170106 10117 20089 50001= • KBGM 240053Z 19003KT 3SM BR FEW011 BKN034 OVC044 12/11 A3007 RMK AO2 RAE00 SLP185 • P0000 T01170111= • KBGM 240153Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG BKN002 OVC031 12/11 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP188 • T01170111 RVRNO= • KBGM 240253Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG BKN002 OVC020 11/11 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP188 60000 • T01110106 51006 RVRNO= • KBGM 240317Z 00000KT 1SM BR FEW002 OVC018 12/11 A3007= • KBGM 240418Z 00000KT 1 1/2SM BR SCT001 BKN008 OVC016 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2= • KBGM 240453Z 23003KT 1/2SM FG VV004 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP190 T01170111 401220056 • RVRNO= • KBGM 240553Z 00000KT 1/2SM FG VV003 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP189 60000 T01170111 10122 • 20111 55001 RVRNO= • KBGM 240653Z 00000KT 1/2SM FG BKN003 OVC024 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2 RAB0559E36 SLP190 • P0003 T01170111 RVRNO= • KBGM 240753Z 23004KT 1/2SM FG BKN002 OVC021 12/12 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP187 P0001 • T01220117 RVRNO= • KBGM 240853Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG BKN004 OVC032 13/12 A3008 RMK AO2 RAB10E28 SLP187 P0001 • 60005 T01280117 50000 RVRNO= • KBGM 240953Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV002 12/12 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP189 T01220117 RVRNO= • KBGM 241053Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV002 12/12 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP194 T01170117 RVRNO= • KBGM 241153Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV002 12/12 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP198 60005 70063 T01170117 • 10128 20117 53010 RVRNO $=

  20. Surface Conditions - Binghamton

  21. Satellite View - Binghamton

  22. Radar - Binghamton

  23. Upper Air - Binghamton

  24. Model Guidance Rainfall through 12z Wed expected between .50-.75” Actual = 0.63”

  25. Verifications - Binghamton

  26. Scores - Career

  27. Up Close and Personal

  28. Lessons Learned - Binghamton • Frontogenesis is a strength of the mesoscale models and its stratiform precipitation amounts are credible. • Fog and low clouds in an upslope flow (such as BGM) are common when rain-cooled air is not stirred during the day. • PVA is a good lifting mechanism over a front boundary.

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