A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Shorebird Habitat February 17, 2011

1. A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Shorebird HabitatFebruary 17, 2011 DorieStolley, Rhode Island NWR Complex David Brownlie, Monomoy NWR Kevin Holcomb, Chincoteague NWR

2. Monomoy NWR Edwin B. Forsythe NWR Chincoteague NWR

3. Monomoy National Wildlife Refuge Context

4. Monomoy National Wildlife Refuge • “Rookie” Mgr. (01/2010) after leadership turnover • Draft CCP in progress (2010-2011) • Some Honeymoon? • WHSRN Vulnerability Assessment 2010 team approach essential for the Rookie

5. Eastern Massachusetts NWR Complex Oxbow NWR Great Meadows NWR Assabet River NWR Massasoit NWR Mashpee NWR Connecticut River Watershed WHSRN Assessment Team Facilitator – Dorie Stolley Proj. Ldr. – Libby Herland Supv. Biol. – Steph Koch Ref. Mgr – The Rookie Other Consultants Monomoy NWR Nantucket NWR Nomans Land Island NWR

6. WHShorebirdRN • Monomoy NWR Shorebird Renown: • 30± shorebird spp. – • Red Knot SB DowitcherHudsonian Godwit • Ruddy Turnstone Whimbrel Dunlin • Sanderling BB Plover Semipalmated plover • G/L Yellowlegs Least sandpiper Semipalmated sandpiper • (NO, this fire retread still can’t ID them all correctly) • Fall migration, concentrates > 30K • Food (fuel) & Rest stop – a rarity • Many spring migrants stop-over • Some stay and nest • ≥10% of MA’s PIPL nesting • American oystercatcher & Willet

7. Assessment Preparations -- Waves Always Win! • SAND & WAVE ENERGY @ Center • Landmass – migrating, persistence? • SLAMM • Geise, et al (2010) • Energy Reserves • Fuel (food) – intertidal infauna • Rest (disturbance) – People, Pets & Predators

8. U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service Note: Results relatively insensitive to Ecosystem Goods/Services Value Scores

9. MonomoyDraft CCP/EIS • 3 Alternatives (± 90-95% complete) • 6 Main Goals w/ SMART Objectives & Strategies • Monitoring Elements • Key GCC/SLR Strategies • Adaptation -- resilience • Mitigation – reduce carbon footprint • Engagement -- partners

10. MonomoyDraft CCP/EIS • (Draft)Preferred Alternative – • Strategies for Shorebirds & GCC/SLR • 13 Adaptation (Resilience) Strategies • ? Mitigation Strategies • 5 Engagement Strategies

11. MonomoyDraft CCP/EIS • The Best is Yet to Come – Work in Progress • Internal Service Review • Public Review/Comment • Final CCP • Devil is in the details, CCP only a beginning: • Step-Down Plans – More specific/detailed • Habitat Mgt. Plan & Annual Habitat Work Plan • Wilderness Stewardship Plan • Inventory & Monitoring Plan

12. Conclusions: • The WHSRN Shorebird Vulnerability Assessment process and team approach: • Substantially shortened a Rookie Manager’s “learning curve” • Allowed a more rapid and effective engaging with FWS staff & partners during the CCP Alternative formulation phase • Positioned for Conservation Delivery addressing GCC/SLR impacts on shorebirds when Monomoy CCP process is complete • Guidance for Step-Down plans and future Inventory & Monitoring • One model for climate change vulnerability assessment, potentially adaptable to other FWS resources of conservation concern

13. Recommendations: • Be considerate of those who follow! • Leave successors a roadmap… route and turns where your “team” applied professional judgment to the best available science • This WHSRN Assessment roadmap for Monomoy NWR warrants periodic revisiting • Consider adapting the WHSRN Assessment model to other refuge resources of conservation concern

15. Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge • Held a two workshops with partners • Site Assessment Tool • Climate Change • Engaged partners to collect thought and information to complete the climate change module • Used workshop to explain what the refuge is doing, find out what the partners are working on and identify potential participants for various sections of the assessment

16. The Site Assessment Tool (SAT) • Review the state of conservation • Identify the critical threats at the sites and the conservation actions in need. • Assess the effectiveness of site management and conservation efforts. • Identify priorities for action, information gaps, monitoring and research needs, outcomes of management and conservation actions.

17. Partnerships Atlantic Audubon Society

18. Outcomes of the Assessment Workshops • Engaged partners in Refuge shorebird management • Strengthened existing relationships • Created new partnerships and friendships • Outlined management strategies • Clarified misconceptions (rumors) • Promoted “transparency” • Identified research needs

19. Feedback from Refuges • Looking forward to SLAMM 6 runs and more accurate elevation data(LiDAR) • Appreciated the input of coastal geomorphologists • Need more information on the effects of climate change on invertebrate food base of many shorebirds • Request modeling on future shorebird range shifts and what importance their refuge will have in the flyway in the future for different species Used the workshop format as a way to engage partners and pave the way for future collaborations.

20. Public Education and Engagement • Incorporated into many of the adaptation options • Climate change education is already finding its way into displays, brochures and programs now, and will lead to a better-educated public and better local partners • Forsythe is designing new exhibits for visitor center to illustrate climate change research

21. Thank you DorieStolley, Rhode Island NWR Complex David Brownlie, Monomoy NWR Kevin Holcomb, Chincoteague NWR