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WHAT NOW?

WHAT NOW?. Democracy and U.S.-Latin American Relations. APPROACHING THE QUESTION. The Taming of Democracy The Pink Tide: Making Democracy “Dangerous” Again Looking Ahead: Prospects for Consolidation. READINGS. Smith, Democracy , Epilogue. QUESTIONS.

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WHAT NOW?

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  1. WHAT NOW? Democracy and U.S.-Latin American Relations

  2. APPROACHING THE QUESTION • The Taming of Democracy • The Pink Tide: Making Democracy “Dangerous” Again • Looking Ahead: Prospects for Consolidation

  3. READINGS • Smith, Democracy, Epilogue

  4. QUESTIONS • What explains the spread of democracy in Latin America? • What kind of democracy? What quality? • What’s new about the current phase of democratic change? How does it compare to prior periods? • What role (if any) for the United States?

  5. Dimensions of Democracy, 1900-2000

  6. INITIATION OF DEMOCRACY • Era of oligarchic democracy (1900-1939) • Elite-led experiments in democracy: • Top-down mobilization, esp. of middle classes • Competition among elites • Co-optation of potential opposition • Weak ideological dimension: focus on politics, not economics

  7. DANGERS OF DEMOCRACY The Onset of Mass Politics, 1940-77: • Popular mobilization • Specters of revolution • Grand policy schemes • Strong states Targets of Threat • Socioeconomic elite • Middle classes • Military • United States

  8. THE TAMING OF DEMOCRACY • Making Democracy Safe, 1978-present: • Transitional pacts • De-mobilization of labor and peasantry • Fear of extremism • Evaporation of political left • Ideological vacuum • Declining strength of state • Thus: spread and duration of electoral democracy

  9. DANGERS REVIVED? • Democracy as Protest/The Pink Tide (1998-present): • Leftist ideological orientation • Concern with poverty, social justice • Rebuilding state strength • Resistance to Washington Consensus • Condemnation of USA/Bush administration: • Aspiration for “Bolivarian dream” • Q:What good is a democracy that isn’t dangerous?

  10. PENDULUMS OF HISTORY • 1900-1939: democracy not “dangerous,” orchestrated by elites • 1940-1977: democracy becomes dangerous, with mass mobilization and calls for sweeping socioeconomic reform • 1978-present: democracy initially “tame” not dangerous, with neoliberal consensus • 1998-present: democracy dangerous again, with rise of new Left

  11. LOOKING AHEAD I Interim Developments: • 43% “democrats,” 30.5% “ambivalent,” 26.5% “nondemocratic” • Economic growth (reducing poverty + inequality) • 9/11 and its aftermath The Problem of Consolidation: • Longevity? Of what? • Deepening • From illiberal to liberal democracy? Or not?

  12. LOOKING AHEAD II • The greater the frustration within the population, • The greater the sympathy with anti-establishment movements, • The more extensive the general participation in elections, • The more clearly defined the partisan or ideological alternatives, and • The more effective the role of representative institutions…

  13. The more divisive will be debates over policy content in Latin America, • The greater the likelihood of nationalistic and/or anti-establishment policies, • The greater the resistance to demands from the United States, and • The greater the probability of policy conflicts with Washington. • Thus: the greater the degree of democracy in Latin America, the greater the degree of inter-American tension and disagreement.

  14. CHALLENGING AMERICAN MYTHS • The Cherished Assumption—freely elected leaders will support U.S. policy • The Western Hemisphere idea—the new world is distinct from old, will forge common front in international arena • Democracy rationale for “regime change”—free elections as protective shield • The hegemonic presumption—the United States can dictate political life in Latin America

  15. U.S. VISIONS FOR LATIN AMERICA • Democratic—with tilt to right or center-right • Prosperous—with commitment to free-market policies and ties to United States • Unified—under U.S. leadership • Peaceful—in view of unanimity • Deferential—following U.S. lead in global arena

  16. REALITY CHECK • Democracy = broad ideological spectrum, from “left” to “right” • Prosperity = mixed economies; rejection of Washington Consensus, FTAs, and FTAA • Ideology = diversity rather than unity • Outlooks = anti-U.S. attitudes strong and growing among large share of population • Alliances = rejection of U.S. leadership and rules of the game

  17. ROLES FOR THE UNITED STATES? • Focus on politics—beyond the war on terror, beyond free trade; recognize exceptional nature of current opportunity • Adopt long-term view of national interest • Hands off! Do not intervene in elections or encourage overthrows of elected leaders • As opportunities arise, bolster institutions and “deepening” of democracy in Latin America • Re-examine The Cherished Assumption

  18. The end.

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