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Lou Németh Chief Safety Officer. New Aviation Technologies and Challenges in Training. Dealing with the Black Swan in training. What is the theory? What can we do about it as it applies to aviation training?. How will technology improvements influencing the type of simulators on the market?.
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Lou Németh Chief Safety Officer New Aviation Technologies and Challenges in Training
Dealing with the Black Swan in training • What is the theory? • What can we do about it as it applies to aviation training?
How will technology improvements influencing the type of simulators on the market? • Technology will increase safety while increasing efficiencies for our customers, but how? • The greater the fidelity of the device the more efficient the learning • Converse is also true • What are the consequences of teaching stalls in a narrow envelope?
The pace of training technology growth exceeds the pace of aircraft technology growth circa 2000; this begins to bring down the cost of training while demand for training will soar 2 – 3 years after 911. Aircraft Technology and Instructional Technology More 20 Training Technology 18 16 FFS Footprint Length Days Technology Complexity 14 Technology in Aircraft 12 Less 10 1980 FMS EFIS FBS CBT IPT Vsim AQP ISD MFTD EVIDENCED BASED 2010 Time
Aircraft Technology and Instructional Technology More 20 Training Technology 18 16 FFS Footprint Length Days Technology Complexity 14 There is a lag in time between the introduction of training technology and the efficiency benefit. Airlines are not typically early adopters. A competitive advantage may be achieved w/o the risks that goes with early adoption by contracting training service providers. Technology in Aircraft 12 Less 10 1980 FMS EFIS FBS CBT IPT Vsim AQP ISD MFTD EVIDENCED BASED 2010 Time
4th generation: 1st generation: Hull Loss per million departures 2nd generation: 3rd generation: Early jet Glass-cockpit Nav display FMS FBW Flight Envelope Protection Hull Losses per Aircraft Generation 2nd jet generation Includes western built jets Excludes training, flight test, war, terrorism 1st generation All aircraft 2nd generation 4th generation 3rd generation ITQI - ICAO IATA Round Table 7 Years Of Operation Sources: Airclaims, Airbus
Cost of Accidents INJURIES • Compensation for lost earnings • Medical & hospital costs • Awards for permanent disabilities • Rehab costs • Funeral Costs • Pensions for dependents PROPERTY DAMAGE • Fire • Losses and damage • Use & occupancy • Liability INSURED COSTS WATER LINE ASSOCIATED COSTS • Dif between losses & recovery • Equipment replacement • Surplus workers • Disabled worker costs • Overhead while production stopped OFF THE JOB ACCIDENTS • Medical Services • Injured worker welfare • Loss of skill & experience • Training INTANGIBLES • Low Morale -- Labor conflict • PR & Loss of Goodwill INJURIES • First Aid Expenses • Transportation Costs • Investigation Costs • Cost of Processing Reports WAGE LOSSES • Interrupted work time • Hours cleaning up accident • Time spent repairing eqpmnt PRODUCTION LOSSES • Product spoiled by accident • Loss of skill & experience • Worker replacement • Idle machine time UNINSURED COSTS Ramp incidents cost the industry $3 billion per year, or $300,000 per aircraft -- Indirect costs exceed direct costs by a factor of 20
Will technology change the balance between safety & efficiency?
No amount of technology, by itself, will make us safe. Will even more technology change the balance between safety & efficiency?
Did I id the environment early enough? Did I act in a timely manner? Did I feel confident? Redo Redo Redo Single Pilot Judgment Process Cognitive Process Span all phases Gut check spans all phases Sense/Identify Frame/Name Mobilze/Align Call Make it happen Learn/Adjust Did I consider those impacted? Did I use all resources? Did I get or solicit feedback? Did I make adjustments based on the feedback? Was the feedback continuous? Did I cut through the complexity & get to the essence? Did I have parameters in mind? Did I come to a yes/no decision? Could I clearly explain my judgment? Did I stay in the game? Did I set clear milestones? Was I supportive of those trying to help me? Judgment; Tichy & Bennis; Penguin Publishers, 2007
Two tools together Judgment Model & Flight Data Animation Tools
Interactive Demo • The Strengths of Technology Applied To Training
In Conclusion • Technology for the sake of technology solves nothing; holistic approaches that take into account the cognitive sciences are required • Technologies used to implement reflection by themselves are ineffective they must be paired with judgment tool questionnaires; enough practice with them creates the necessary clairvoyance and a better pilot • A decrease in fidelity will dramatically decrease learning outcomes • Training should leverage new technologies for the sake of safety and efficiency