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Cool change? How various Australian cities can engage with climate issues

Cool change? How various Australian cities can engage with climate issues. Phil McManus The University of Sydney Four Degrees or More: Australia in a Hot World Melbourne, July 2011. Situating Australian Cities.

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Cool change? How various Australian cities can engage with climate issues

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  1. Cool change? How various Australian cities can engage with climate issues Phil McManus The University of Sydney Four Degrees or More: Australia in a Hot World Melbourne, July 2011

  2. Situating Australian Cities • Climate change is a big challenge for Australian cities, but this is situated within the bigger issue of sustainability. • Anthropogenic climate change is primarily the result of unsustainable practices which also lead to other significant environmental issues, including • resource depletion • environmental degradation • loss of biodiversity. • Australian cities should be leading the world in mitigation and adaptation, and leading the world in the environmental management of other important issues. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  3. Australia contributes less than 1.5 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. • Our rate of emissions per capita is among the highest in the world. • Australia is part of fossil fuel networks but avoids attribution of emissions from the burning of coal exported to other countries. • The atmosphere does not recognise this accounting mechanism. Mt. Arthur Coal Mine, Hunter Valley Source:http://archive.lee.greens.org.au/index.php/content/view/1350/65/ Pasha Bulker aground in Newcastle, 2007 Source:http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/06/28/pasha_main_wideweb__470x296,0.jpg McManus Melbourne, 2011

  4. Source: http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/07/12/cargo_wideweb__470x282,0.jpg The Port of Newcastle handles more than 1000 coal vessels per year. Vessel queue: 23 ships at midnight on 15 June, 2011. Source Hunter Valley Coal Chain Coordinator - http://www.hvccc.com.au/Pages/welcome.aspx McManus Melbourne, 2011

  5. At the global scale Australians are wealthy consumers looking for cheaper products. • This is particularly the case in our largest cities. • Climate change is predicted to significantly impact Australian cities • Temperature • water availability • sea level rise • extreme events • We are a wealthy country with resources to address climate change issues. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  6. Low Elevation Coastal Zone • McGranahan et al (2007) identified the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level. • This zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area and contains 10 per cent of the world's total population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. • McGranahan et al (2007, 19) note that between 1994 and 2004, “half of the 120,000 people killed, and 98 per cent of the 2 million people affected by flood disasters were in Asia”. • Indian and Bangladeshi cities are vulnerable to climate change impacts, and have not been responsible for major amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  7. Source- http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/news/2007/story03-29-07.php McManus Melbourne, 2011

  8. The Little Ice Age • The Little Ice Age in Europe between roughly 1300 and 1850AD has been linked to suffering in what was mainly a rural society. • The impacts certainly were felt in cities. Winter severity in Europe, 1000 - 1900. Based on Lamb, 1969 / Schneider and Mass, 1975.1 Source: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_d2loZqBoOgU/S1zy7xElZKI/AAAAAAAAA0c/1kMllPZYIKY/s320/The+Little+Ice+Age.jpg McManus Melbourne, 2011

  9. Projected Impacts on Australian Cities • Cities in northern Australia, such as Cairns, are likely to experience more intense tropical cyclones, with wind speeds likely to increase in the future. • A 10% increase in storm intensity could result in a doubling of the area of flood inundation in the event of a 1 in 100 year storm. Source- http://www.signaturestaff.com.au/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Cairns.jpg McManus Melbourne, 2011

  10. Between 26 000 and 33 000 kilometres of road, between 1200 and 1500 kilometres of rail infrastructure, and up to 8 600 commercial buildings and up to 6 200 industrial buildings, are at risk of erosion or inundation assuming sea level rise of 1.1 metres by 2100. Source: http://c.photoshelter.com/img-get/I0000WMFBStqg4_I/s/750/750/NEWCASTLE-COAL-0584.jpg McManus Melbourne, 2011

  11. Mitigation in Australian Cities • We need to reduce the consumption of products where their manufacture and transportation generate significant greenhouse gas emissions. • This means moving towards local production where possible, and working to make it more sustainable. • It means carbon-neutral houses and buildings, and designing and operating urban transport systems with a view to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. • Examples are isolated and much more needs to be done. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  12. 60L Green Building, 60-66 Leicester St., Carlton • Commercially viable 4 storey office building • Maximise the reuse of materials. • Annual savings compared to a conventional building • energy - 65% • CO2 emissions - 100% • water - 90% http://www.acfonline.org.au/default.asp?section_id=138 Sustainable House Day 2010 http://www.sustainablehouseday.com/ McManus Melbourne, 2011

  13. Conceptualising Australians • These changes will not happen if people think of themselves only as consumers with a relationship to an emissions trading scheme, or with a personal interest in lowering their taxation payments. • Another framework is required, not to replace those frameworks, but to sit alongside them. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  14. Alternative Conceptual Frameworks • The International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) contributed significantly to meaningful climate change action through their Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) program that aimed to empower local authorities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. • This valuable program involved approximately 250 local councils in Australia until it concluded in June 2009, which highlights both its success in garnering participation, but also the problem of fragmentation in Australian cities and the lack of effective metropolitan governance. • The latest generation of ICLEI CCP-IA (Integrated Action) is, understandably, still focused at the local government scale. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  15. In 2010 the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) produced their Sustainable Cities Index. • A comparative index of Climate Change Vulnerability, Mitigation and Adaptation (CC-VMA) in Australia’s 20 most populous cities would focus attention onto urban areas, and the actions of citizens. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  16. The CC-VMA Index • Vulnerability criteria could include • temperature changes, • rainfall changes, • sea level rise, • urban-bush interface, • risk of flooding, • and other relevant matters. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  17. Mitigation criteria could include • the existence of an effective climate change reduction working group in most councils in a city, • extent of actions on ICLEI’s CCP-IA, • reductions in electricity generated from coal fired power stations, • and reductions in vehicle kilometres travelled by private motorized vehicles. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  18. Adaptation criteria include • urban forestry (also a form of mitigation), • the percentage of buildings and infrastructure that has been re-sited away from areas of high vulnerability, • proportion of food derived from local agriculture, • extent of water sensitive urban design (WSUD) to make better use of likely reduced available water supplies. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  19. Further research and great care is needed to ensure that the criteria are appropriate, do not duplicate or omit important concerns, and have rigorous and defensible means for measurement. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  20. Conclusion • In a world where four degrees of warming, or more, is a realistic scenario, the later we delay any meaningful responses, the worse the problem is likely to become. • History and vulnerability analysis suggests that cities are likely to be particularly hard hit by climate change impacts. • Due to the concentrations of people in cities who have become reliant on the resource and absorptive capacities of environments beyond their immediate purview, the negative impacts are likely to be experienced by more people than at any time in the history of the planet. • Unfortunately, in many parts of the world, these will be the poorest people who have contributed little, if anything, to the problem. McManus Melbourne, 2011

  21. Australia is a wealthy country with the capacity to mitigate and to adapt. • We will do neither, with grave consequences, unless we make it happen in our largest cities. • One feasible approach to facilitating action at the urban scale is a media salient Climate Change Vulnerability, Mitigation and Adaptation Index. McManus Melbourne, 2011

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