Celebrating the Climate Prediction Center’s 25 th Anniversary: Current NCEP Climate Activities

1. Celebrating the Climate Prediction Center’s25th Anniversary: Current NCEP Climate Activities “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP The 29th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop University of Wisconsin, Madison October 18, 2004

2. Outline • General Background: History of CPC • The NOAA Forecast Process • NCEP Overview: The Climate Mission • NWS and NCEP Climate Support • Computer Resources • Environmental Modeling Center • Reanalysis • Climate Forecast System • Climate Test Bed • Summary/Future Opportunities

3. General Background:History of CPC • First Global Center for NMC • First center to push beyond the “weather” barrier • A focal point for the transition from Climate Analysis to Climate Prediction • Is now a fundamental component of today’s NOAA Forecast Process

4. Central Guidance Local Offices The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of NWS Products and Forecast Services Observe e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers Process Products & Forecast Services Respond & Feedback Distribute IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback

5. NCEP Mission Statement NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center NCEP Strategic Vision Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services. Aviation Weather Center Space Environment Center Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center

6. Climate Mission “CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.” • Focus is on Week-2 to Seasonal-to-Interannual (to decadal forecasts??) • Official products for the U.S. • Forecasts in collaboration with - CDC, HPC, IRI • Foundation for NWS Seamless Suite of Products

8. NWS Support for Climate Services • All NCEP products linked directly to: • 122 Weather Forecast Offices • 13 River Forecast Centers • 22 Central Weather Service Units • EMC testing regional climate models for “downscaling” purposes • NWS Regions assigning climate focal points for each station  with training – outreach materials • Coop modernization  Reference Climate Network

9. NCEP Climate Support $20M/Year Investment Of which $5M is for Climate Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • 2.4x upgrade operational by mid-January, 2005 • Backup in Fairmont, WV operational by mid-January, 2005 • 1/3 for climate applications to support Climate Test Bed

10. NCEP Climate Support EMC Organization

11. NCEP Climate Support: Reanalysis • Global • T62(~210 km)/28 level, global domain • Used as benchmark to measure model improvement • Waiting on funding;working with NASA/GSFC • Review paper for Climate Change Science Program • Regional • 32 km, 45 layer, domain covers N. and C. America, • Includes precipitation assimilation • Includes most recent Noah land model • Completed 24 years of RR production in just over 3 months • Real-time update now executing • Output available through NCDC

12. NCEP Climate Support: Coupled ClimateForecast System (implemented August 24, 2004) • Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) • T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical • Recent upgrades in model physics • Solar radiation (Hou, 1996) • cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998) • gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995) • cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997) 1. Atmospheric component 2. Oceanic component • GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) • 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers • Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N) • Free surface 3. Coupled model • Once-a-day coupling • Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology

13. Composite

14. Most Recent CFS Latest CPC Forecast: Warm episode El Nino conditions are expected to continue into early 2005.

15. Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño 3.4 (DJF 97/98 – DJF 03/04) The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability in the Tropical Pacific on S/I timescales, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts.

18. THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED 08 October 2004 Climate Community Climate Test Bed Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

19. Climate Test Bed • Mission: To accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications • Bridging the “Valley of Death” between research and operational service applications • High profile activities • Operational CFS/GFS assessments • Multi-model ensembles • Climate product and applications development • Climate Process and modeling Team (CPT) interactions • Climate reanalysis and data impact

20. Oversight Board CPC CDC EMCGFDL IRI NCPO CTB ORGANIZATION Science Advisory Board Director CPC Program Manager NCPO Deputy EMC Climate Science Team EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA NCAR OST OCCWS EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points) Science / Software Support from Contractors; TA’s, SA’s Test Bed Users

21. Climate Test Bed Status • Director (Wayne Higgins of CPC) and Deputy Director (Hua Lu Pan of EMC) named • Resource allocation ongoing (within NCEP) • Additional resources being provided through NOAA Climate Program Office (NCPO) • CTB teams (Oversight Board, Science Advisory Board and Climate Science Teams) being organized.

22. Summary • NOAA/NWS provide critical operational support to climate-weather product stream • NCEP/CPC focus: seasonal-interannual-decadal • Infrastructure support is in place • Computers • Data assimilation (ocean, land and atmosphere) • Coupled global model (atmosphere, land, ocean) • Product generation, product dissemination • Climate Test Bed • Partnerships are critical element of success • OGP, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, CDC, NCDC, COLA and others

23. Future Opportunities • Extend ability to provide seasonal prediction (time, space, regime) • THORPEX/IPY (’07/’08): climate/weather linkage • Ecosystem forecasts: enhancing the application of climate predictions • Climate Test Bed

24. End (extra slides follow)

26. 30 33 C 29 C 32 23 24 16 16 00 12 24 36 48 00 12 24 36 48 OPERATIONAL COUPLED LAND-ATMOSPHERE ETA MODEL (Model captures interannual variability of daytime max temperature and model soil moisture) July 1999 July 2000 Eta model end-of-month 2nd layer volumetric soil moisture relatively dry relatively moist Eta model monthly- mean 2-m (C) air temperature vs obs: interior Southwest obs obs Eta Eta interior Southwest Eta forecast hour Eta forecast hour Figure 6.Upper: Eta model layer 2 (10-40 cm) volumetric soil moisture is relatively moist (dry) in July 1999, left (July 2000, right). Lower: Verification of operational Eta model multi-station,monthly-mean 2-m air temperature for interior Southwest: moister and cooler (warmer and drier) conditions in July 1999, left (July 2000, right) are well-captured.

27. Most recent upgrade in Noah land model physics: snowpack physics Eliminate early bias in springtime depletion of significant winter snowpack Revised physics of: A) surface evaporation over patchy snow cover B) surface albedo over snow cover Winter 1996-1997 Mean snow water equivalent (SWE) over 110 SNOTEL sites of western CONUS. Control Noah run: green Revised Noah run: yellow Obs (SNOTEL): black From N. American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)