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Weather-Climate Linkage

Weather-Climate Linkage. Dave Novak (WPC) & Jon Gottschalck (CPC) January 21, 2014. Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems. Outlook. Guidance. Threats Assessments. Forecast Lead Time. Forecasts. Watches. Warnings & Alert Coordination. Benefits. Forecast

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Weather-Climate Linkage

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  1. Weather-Climate Linkage Dave Novak (WPC) & Jon Gottschalck (CPC) January 21, 2014

  2. Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Weather – Climate Linkage Months • Climate Forecast System • North American Ensemble Forecast System 2 Week • Global Ensemble Forecast System • Global Forecast System • Global Dust 1 Week • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast • Wave Ensemble Days • Waves • Global Ocean • North American Mesoscale • Bays • Space Weather • Fire Wx • Regional Hurricane • (HWRF & GFDL) • Storm Surge Hours • Rapid Refresh • Air Quality Minutes • Dispersion (smoke) • Tsunami • Whole Atmosphere • HRRR • NMME • NLDAS Health Aviation Recreation Ecosystem Agriculture Commerce Hydropower Environment Maritime Fire Weather Life & Property Energy Planning Reservoir Control Emergency Mgmt Space Operations 3

  3. Initiatives to Bridge the Gap 1 Month Day 7 Week 3&4

  4. Hazards ? NEW Day 6-10 ? NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW

  5. Extend Weather Forecasts to Day 10 NWS team being chartered to explore extending weather forecasts to Day 10 Enablers: • Model improvements (GEFS anomaly cor > 0.6 to 9.4 days) • Multimodel ensembles (NAEFS – 9.8 days) • GEFS Reforecasts • NWS Blender Project – sophisticated post processing Outstanding Questions: • What elements? • What format (deterministic vs. probabilistic)? • Role of NWS operational units? • What techniques (dynamic models / statistical approach)?

  6. Extend Weather Forecasts to Day 10 • Forecast format and forecast process for Days 8-10 may be different • Probabilistic format • Mix of dynamical ensemble, and statistical approaches • Ongoing CPC/WPC discussions on teleconnections • For example, when • MJO phase 3 and positive ENSO = enhanced probability of warm in the Northeast US • MJO phase 7 = increased likelihood of Atmospheric Rivers in the west

  7. Use Ensemble Cluster Information Mine ensemble for common weather scenarios 42% Chance East Coast Heat Wave 34% Chance Seasonal 26% Chance Wet ECMWF clusters of 500-hPa heights and anomalies

  8. Probabilistic Hazards Enablers: • NCEP Reforecast dataset Outstanding Questions: • What elements and thresholds? • Consistency with Day 8-10 daily forecasts? • Consistency with official week-2 hazards? • Distinction between hazards and extremes?

  9. Extreme Forecast Index EFI concept complementary to probabilistic hazards Identify “extreme” events relative to model climatology. Requires robust reforecast dataset. EFI values of >.9 signal potential for extreme event, relative to the model climatology

  10. Week 3 & 4 Enablers: • NCEP CFS • Statistical tools Outstanding Questions: • Useful Skill? • What is the final product format?

  11. Hazards ? NEW Day 6-10 ? NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW

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