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The Iraq Wars

The Iraq Wars. Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 5, 2011. 1990-91 Gulf War: timeline. Bill from Iraq to Kuwait for $24.5 b (16 July 1990) Invasion of Kuwait (2 August 1990) UNSCR 660 demanding unconditional withdrawal

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The Iraq Wars

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  1. The Iraq Wars Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 5, 2011

  2. 1990-91 Gulf War: timeline • Bill from Iraq to Kuwait for $24.5 b (16 July 1990) • Invasion of Kuwait (2 August 1990) • UNSCR 660 demanding unconditional withdrawal • UNSCR 678 (29 Nov) authorising use of “all necessary means” and requiring Iraq withdrawal by 15 January 1991

  3. 1990-91 Gulf War: timeline • Bill from Iraq to Kuwait for $24.5 b (16 July 1990) • Invasion of Kuwait (2 August 1990) • UNSCR 660 demanding unconditional withdrawal • UNSCR 678 (29 Nov) authorising use of “all necessary means” and requiring Iraq withdrawal by 15 January 1991

  4. Campaign phases • Op Desert Shield: build-up of defensive force (8 Aug – early Nov 1990) • Build-up of offensive force (8 Nov – 16 Jan 1991) • Op Desert Storm: air offensive (17 Jan – 23 Feb) • Op Desert Sabre: ground offensive (24 – 27 Feb).

  5. Air campaign 1800 planes 6 carriers 43 days ‘tank plinking’

  6. Attrition of Iraqi forces in KTO (% destroyed)

  7. Key questions • Why did Saddam invade Kuwait? • Why did the US fail to deter Iraq? • Was war necessary?

  8. Key questions • Why did Saddam invade Kuwait? • Why did the US fail to deter Iraq? • Was war necessary?

  9. Why invade? • Impasse with Iran • Economic crisis in Iraq • End of Cold War • Dispute with Kuwait • Assumption of US impotence

  10. Was war necessary? • Did Bush “go the extra mile” for piece? • Saddam responded vaguely to proposals by ME states (22 Sept), Soviets (5 Oct), France (10 Oct), Ed Heath (21 Oct), and Soviets again (19 Feb) • Giving sanctions more time? Debate in Congress. Vote for war (12 Jan) – Senate 52/47 (House 250/183).

  11. Why stop after 100 hours?

  12. UNSCR 687 (3 April 1991) Articles 8-10: • Iraq to get rid of chemical and biological weapons • Not to develop nuclear weapons • Not to acquire ballistic missiles with range over 150km

  13. Containing Saddam • Sanctions regime • No fly zones

  14. Road to war in 2003 • UNSC 687 (April 1991) • UNSCOM destroy Iraq’s poison gas stockpile (1991-92)  • Defection of head of Iraq’s WMD programme (1995) reveals Iraqi deception

  15. Road to war (continued) • collapse of UNSCOM process (1997) • US/UK bombing (1998) • Failure of UN sanctions • materially: up to $3 b stolen annually from oil for food • morally: half million killed

  16. Cost of sanctions regime

  17. From 9/11 to Iraq War • Freedman: “worse-case analysis gained a new credibility” • the logic of prevention – Rice: “we don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud.” • Neocons “hijack” US foreign policy – emphasise 3 Ms: moral certainty, military unilateralism and the Middle East

  18. Iraq and Al Qaeda? • CIA’s Oct 2002 NIE downplays connection • Bush before Congress vote (Oct 8): “Share a common enemy” and “have had high-level contacts that go back a decade.” Also “Iraq has trained al-Qaeda members in bombing-making and poisons and deadly gasses.”

  19. Iraq and Al Qaeda? Public ignorance (Jan/Sept 2003): • 9/11 hijackers were Iraqi: 44% • Saddam behind 9/11 attacks: 32%   • Iraq gave support to al-Qaeda: 51%

  20. The case for war “The threat from Iraq stands alone because it gathers the most serious dangers of our age in our place” • WMD • Murderous tyrant • Tried to dominate Middle East • Unrelenting hostility towards US President Bush speech at Cincinnati, Ohio (Oct 2002)

  21. Iraqi WMD “Iraq has continued its WMA programs in defiance of UN resolutions and restrictions. Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of UN restrictions; if left unchecked, it probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade.” CIA report, October 2002

  22. Legal case for war • 678: carte blanche for US war • 687: imposes cease-fire conditions • who determines ‘material breach’ and what are the implications?  • 1441: recognises ‘material breach’ but does not authorise use of force

  23. Legal case for war • 678: carte blanche for US war • 687: imposes cease-fire conditions • who determines ‘material breach’ and what are the implications?  • 1441: recognises ‘material breach’ but does not authorise use of force

  24. Balance of forces Coalition Iraqi 350,000 20+ divisions 2,000 tanks, 3,700 Avs, 2,400 artillery, 300 aircraft • 116,000 (US), 25,000 (UK) • V Corps (US Army): 3 Mech, 4ID, 101, 82 • 1 MEF (USMC): 1 Div, TF Tarawa, UK 1 Arm Div

  25. Petraeus takes charge (Jan. 2007)

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