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ENLARGING TO THE BALKANS ROMANIA AND BULGARIA BETWEEN NATO AND EU A summary of the report by ROMANIAN ACADEMIC SOCIETY

ENLARGING TO THE BALKANS ROMANIA AND BULGARIA BETWEEN NATO AND EU A summary of the report by ROMANIAN ACADEMIC SOCIETY Country Cumulative percentage change in income per capita 1997-2002 Percent people feeling the country is going in the right direction in 2002 Bulgaria +29 18

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ENLARGING TO THE BALKANS ROMANIA AND BULGARIA BETWEEN NATO AND EU A summary of the report by ROMANIAN ACADEMIC SOCIETY

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  1. ENLARGING TO THE BALKANS ROMANIA AND BULGARIA BETWEEN NATO AND EU A summary of the report by ROMANIAN ACADEMIC SOCIETY

  2. Country Cumulative percentage change in income per capita 1997-2002 Percent people feeling the country is going in the right direction in 2002 Bulgaria +29 18 Romania +7 34 Well on the track, but gloomy still…

  3. The challenge of catch up (Un)sustainability of the annual average wage Hr Hu Slo Cz Pol Bg Ro % GDP/cap 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Source: IMF

  4. Not so different… DIFFICULTY OF CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT Index factoring in procedures, days and cost Bul Pol Cz Ser Ro Hu Rus Sk 0 20 40 60 80 Source: World Bank, Doing Business in 2004

  5. Improving business environment STARTING A BUSINESS, DURATION AND COST 100 100 Duration (days), left scale Days % Cost (% GNI per cap) 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Ro Bul Pol Hu Cz Sk Source: World Bank, Doing Business in 2004

  6. Hidden threats… ARREARS, % GDP 20 20 % 15 15 Private sector Of which to other companies 10 10 State sector 5 5 0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Sursa FMI

  7. Hidden threats…

  8. Where they stumble…

  9. Politics, key to governance

  10. Risks ahead: if public mood goes further down…

  11. HOW TO MAKE 2007 FEASIBLE PAIS LEGAL INTO PAIS REAL Both countries and EC should put more stress on the implementation rather than the creation of lengthy strategy documents; it is important to identify and monitor indicators of real change and design policies with built-in incentives to foster real transformation.

  12. HOW TO MAKE 2007 FEASIBLE • IMPROVE AND DEMOCRATIZE POLICY FORMULATION  • Create a national process of policy formulation, enhance policy dialogue to reduce impact of elections on accession process and generate support. • FOSTER FAIR COMPETITION • Fight the culture of privilege, build a system of property and contract enforcement.

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