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Demographics and The Impact on Investment Opportunities Nebraska Chartered Financial Analysts Society Anthony’s Omaha, Nebraska Richard F. Hokenson Hokenson & Company May 24, 2011.
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Demographics and The Impact on Investment OpportunitiesNebraska Chartered Financial Analysts SocietyAnthony’sOmaha, NebraskaRichard F. HokensonHokenson & CompanyMay 24, 2011
Hokenson & Company is an independent consulting firm specializing in the application of demographics to economic, industry and financial market forecasting.Prior to founding Hokenson & Company in May 2002, Richard Hokenson was the Chief Economist for Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where he pioneered the application of demographics to economic and financial market forecasting. Following the merger with Credit Suisse First Boston in November 2000, he was made the Director of their Global Demographics Project where he continued his responsibility for analysis and forecasting of global demographic trends and their associated economic and investment implications.
Agree/Disagree? • “Our teeming population is the strongest evidence our numbers are burdensome to the world, which can hardly support us from its natural elements. Our wants grow more and more keen and our complaints more bitter in all mouths, while nature fails in affording us our usual sustenance…”
Maximum Effective Capital Gains Tax Rate versus Percentage of Young Taxpayers
Population Trends in The Developed World
The Developed WorldPopulation Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
Western EuropePopulation Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
Total Fertility Rate for Selected Regions and Countries: 2010
The United StatesPopulation Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
The Developing World with a focus on BRIC • Brazil Russia • India China
China: Six Brides for Seven Brothers(Sex Ratio at Birth by Birth Order)
BrazilPopulation Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
The Era of Low Interest Rates has only just started or How I learned to stop worrying about budget deficits
Yield on Long-Term Treasuries versus Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP
U.S. Current Dollar GDP(Year-ago Change (bars) and Smoothed 10-Year Change (line))
U.S. Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP(Annual Rate of Change from same quarter 10 years ago)
U.S.: Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP and Forecasted Labor Force
Yield on Long-Term Treasuries versus Historical and Forecasted Growth in Current Dollar GDP
Important Changes in the Financial Arrangements of Households
U.S. Households with more MONEY than TIME(Number of U.S. Families with Two or More Earners)
U.S. Households with more TIME than MONEY(Number of U.S. Families with One Earner)
Suggested Readings and References • Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare by Richard Easterlin • The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History by David Hackett Fisher • The Feminine Mystique by Betty Friedan • The Age of Discontinuity by Peter Drucker • Population and Development Review • Richard F. Hokenson • rhokenson@hokenson.biz • (609) 516-7780