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NCEP Production Suite Review - 2009

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NCEP Production Suite Review - 2009

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    1. 1 NCEP Production Suite Review - 2009 S. Lord, W. Lapenta & EMC Senior Staff

    2. 2 Overview Introduction Staff changes UCAR review 2008-9 recap Implementation process changes (Lapenta) GFS performance and “dropouts” Data assimilation development NEMS development

    3. 3 NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)

    4. 4 Overview Introduction Staff changes UCAR review 2008-9 recap Implementation process changes (Lapenta) GFS performance and “dropouts” Data assimilation development NEMS development

    5. 5 NPSR 2008 issues (1) GFS-ECMWF performance gap Main focus of this presentation Marine issues Impacts of missing Quikscat data minor impact for global forecast scores Major driver for forecaster assessment but not model solution Underforecast of strongest storms Not related to Quikscat system resolution increases anticipated GFS 38 km ? 25 km by Fall 2009 or Spring 2010 with new semi-lagrangian model Hourly NAM output needed (NOS) Required for tidal information (water levels) 4 km NAM Plan is for 4 km nest over CONUS and 6 km nest over Alaska Scheduled for Spring 2010

    6. 6 NPSR 2008 issues (2) GFS “run to run variability” Related to GFS-ECMWF performance gap Sippican sonde dry bias OST/OOS is aware of problem Use of Sippican sonde data in models needs to be addressed due to possible biases that may be different from other manufacturers EMC will work with ESRL to diagnose and mitigate any negative impacts

    7. 7 NPSR 2008 issues (2) New implementation procedures – field membership on evaluation team “Synergy” meetings will be extended in scope to include NWS Regional SSDs Participation in evaluations will increase No visits by field reps for evaluations have been discussed

    8. 8

    9. 9 Post P6 Transition…. Moratorium ended 17 August Implementations Completed SREF Upgrade RTOFS Upgrade AQ maximum ozone product OMI Ingest NAM Minor bug fixes AWIPS bufr station HWRF infrastructure updates

    10. 10 NCO and EMC Working to Optimize the Implementation Process Pre-Implementation Preparation Developers and Branch Chiefs review implementation Ensure RFC’s have been tested Developers and NCO PMB meeting Review implementation package RFC sequence Determine optimal scheduling for NCO parallel Weekly Communication Meetings Designed to enhance communication between EMC developers and NCO Senior Production Analysts (SPAs) Improves situational awareness, planning and scheduling Provides a forum for sharing information Results of NCO IT Testing IT standards related to coding/scripting

    11. 11

    12. 12

    13. 13 Marine Development

    14. 14 Ensemble Development

    15. 15 Overview Introduction Staff changes UCAR review 2008-9 recap Implementation process changes (Lapenta) GFS performance and “dropouts” Data assimilation development NEMS development

    16. 16 GFS Performance

    17. 17 GFS Diagnostic Activities “Dropouts Team” (DT) Diagnosed cases when GFS performed poorly with respect to operational ECMWF Ran GFS MODEL with approximate ECMWF initial conditions (“ECM”) Preliminary diagnosis indicates multiple complex, interdependent deficiencies Sat wind QC Bias correction and thinning of A/C data Diurnal bias correction Potentially important impact of humidity through satellite data Negative moisture in background model field Augmented and correct observations data base information Stimulated many new projects to correct deficiencies EMC continues to reallocate resources for ongoing DT activities Primary focus should be improving data assimilation and QC “Fixing” all deficiencies could close gap by 1/3

    18. 18 GFS Performance

    19. 19 Overview Introduction Staff changes UCAR review 2008-9 recap Implementation process changes (Lapenta) GFS performance and “dropouts” Data assimilation development NEMS development

    20. 20 Data Assimilation Team Development Priorities Advanced Assimilation Techniques 4DVAR Being incorporated in latest version of GSI (w/ GMAO changes) Initial tests in next few months. Inclusion in operations in 1-2 years Hybrid Ensemble – 3(4)DVAR Proposal submitted to THORPEX ESRL U Oklahoma EMC Inclusion in operations ~2013 Situation Dependent Background Errors SST analysis from radiances Data Improved Quality Control Developing station specific quality control NPOESS – GOES-R Developing Radiative Transfer and Data Handling Must be ready before launch

    21. 21 EMC DA External Collaborations (simplified)

    22. 22 Overview Introduction Staff changes UCAR review 2008-9 recap GFS performance and “dropouts” Data assimilation development NEMS development

    23. 23 NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) (uses standard ESMF compliant software)

    24. 24 Oversight and Consultation M. Iredell (EMC) M. Suarez (GSFC) V. Balaji (GFDL) S. Benjamin (ESRL)

    25. 25 Example of NEMS 1-way Nested System

    26. 26 Questions? Comments?

    27. 27 Data Assimilation Applications Current operational and development systems using unified GSI analysis system: Global GDAS, GFS Regional NDAS, NMM Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) Hurricane initialization GMAO SST analysis (for production of SST retrievals, direct analysis under development) AFWA (Under development) GSD RR (Under development) Analyses used by forecasters and researchers for various purposes including verification DA Team provides feedback to modelers and data providers on data quality and model biases

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