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University Research for Engineering and Systems Thinking About Energy Alternatives

University Research for Engineering and Systems Thinking About Energy Alternatives. Carey King, Ph.D. Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy Jackson School of Geological Sciences. Value of university research is freedom to look ahead.

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University Research for Engineering and Systems Thinking About Energy Alternatives

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  1. University Research for Engineering and Systems Thinking About Energy Alternatives Carey King, Ph.D. Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy Jackson School of Geological Sciences

  2. Value of university research is freedom to look ahead • Universities can spend time on the long-range problems • Funding from multiple sources (federal, state, industry, NGO) helps to ensure objectivity and longevity • Train future critical thinkers • Study pure science  integrated systems

  3. Technology and Systems viewpoints:Oil case

  4. US DOE Poster http://www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reserves/oilgas_educational_posters.html

  5. Solutions are needed on global scale (e.g. peak oil) Source: www.aspo-ireland.org; http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

  6. Energy Return On (energy) Investment (EROI) tells us about energy quality & technology • “Energy gain has implications beyond mere accounting. It fundamentally influences the structure and organization of living systems, including human societies.” (Tainter, Allen et al. 2003) • EROI measures the battle between resource depletion and technological advancement EROI = Eoutput / Einput

  7. Spindletop, Beaumont Texas, 1901. •  18 million barrels a year from a trivial investment. Courtesy of C. A. S. Hall http://www.priweb.org/ed/pgws/history/spindletop/spindletop.html

  8. Today: Thunder Horse platform produced ~ 70 million barrels in 2009 – but investment is huge http://xpda.com/junkmail/junk187/thunder_horse_1720_1137.jpg http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/crazy_horse/ http://www.energybulletin.net/node/52659

  9. King, C. W. (2010) Environmental Research Letters.

  10. 2008 EIA, Annual Energy Review (2008).

  11. Future oil supplies are more expensive:lower EROI (quality) = higher price Recent Range Historical Range Oil Sands Oil Shale

  12. Biofuels AND fossil alternatives (oil sands, oil shale) have challenges

  13. Texas energy consumption and emissions

  14. Understand Texas economy & emissions • January 29, 2009 a TX Legislator suggested … • ~ ‘UK, and world, should follow Texas’ lead in reducing CO2 emissions with growing economy’ • From 2000-2005: TX GSP up 16.5%, CO2 down 4.4% MtCO2/yr Data from Energy Information Administration: a: Hhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/tbl5.xls b: Hhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/state/excel/TX_05_details.xlsH c: Hhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/tbl9.xlsH

  15. Emissions drop in TX almost exclusively from drop in natural gas consumption

  16. Natural gas drop almost entirely due to industrial sector; electricity CO2 held constant

  17. Increase in price of natural gas was main driver for downturn in Texas’ CO2 emissions

  18. Federal and state policies have been successful for Texas wind Wind Natural Gas Coal Nuclear

  19. Need tools/documents for people to learn energy tradeoffs for themselves

  20. Irrigated We need comparison of energy alternatives side-by-side using many metrics grain stover grain & stover Electrolysis US Grid Non-irrigated Coal F-T Diesel US Grid Gasoline – Tar Sands Gasoline – Shale Oil NG F-T Diesel CNG grain grain & stover stover Electrolysis Wind/PV Solar Methane Reforming Diesel Gasoline Wind/PV Solar H2 Fuel Cells EV/PHEV Unconventional Fossil Fuels Non-irrigated Corn E85 Irrigated Corn E85 Soy Biodiesel Conventional Fossil Fuels King & Webber (2008). Env. Sci. & Tech. 42 (21), 7866-7872.

  21. Interactive tools allow for discussion of alternatives using baseline data Thanks to Power Across Texas http://tips.engr.utexas.edu/

  22. Value universities for creating information from data • Partners in providing information for policy and decision-making • Objective and transparent (as possible!) tools for comparison of options • Relate technical and physical constraints to energy end use • Educate students to be critical thinkers

  23. Thank You http://www.gulfcoastcarbon.org WEBBER ENERGY GROUP Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy http://www.webberenergygroup.com http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/cieep Carey King careyking@mail.utexas.edu

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