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EUROSTAT regional population projections Giampaolo LANZIERI

Explore the changes in population, including live births, deaths, and migration. Discover the impact of natural change and international and interregional migration on regional populations. Examine recent demographic trends and projected future developments.

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EUROSTAT regional population projections Giampaolo LANZIERI

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  1. EUROSTAT regional population projections Giampaolo LANZIERI Eurostat Unit F-1: Demographic and Migration Statistics

  2. Some basic concepts • The changes in population can be ascribed to live births, deaths and migration. • The difference between live births and deaths is the natural change. • At regional level, migration can be split in international and interregional (net) migration. P(t) + B(t) – D(t) + INM(t) + IRM(t) = P(t+1)

  3. A glance at the recent past…

  4. Recent demographic trends • There is a clear divide in terms of population growth: in the regions of North-east of the EU the population is decreasing. • Basically, this is due to a negative natural change. • In some of these regions, emigration has further contributed to the population decline. • On the opposite, in some Central and Southern European regions, immigration has compensated the natural decline.

  5. What about the age structure? • Basic indicators: • Proportion of defined age classes on the total population. Ex.: (65+ years old)/(total population) • Old age dependency ratio: (65+ years old)/(15-64 years old) • Young age dependency ratio: (0-14 years old)/(15-64 years old)

  6. Dependency ratios

  7. …and a look at the future…

  8. Caveat • The EUROSTAT population projections are not forecasts. • They show possible demographic developments based upon assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration (what-if scenario). • The Eurostat scenario is relying mainly on observed trends.

  9. EUROPOP2004 • In 2005, Eurostat has released population projections at national level covering the EU27 Member States. • In 2006, the regional detail until 2031 has been added for those countries that provided the necessary data: in total, 17 out of 19 Member States with NUTS2 level, making 197 regions. • The regional projections are consistent with the projections at national level.

  10. EU population is likely to decline...

  11. …like in most of the EU regions...

  12. …but it is certain to age…

  13. …but it is certain to age…

  14. …but it is certain to age…

  15. …to differing degrees

  16. Shares of population aged 65+

  17. Shares of population aged 0-14

  18. Old age dependency ratios

  19. The drivers of change

  20. The drivers of change

  21. The drivers of change

  22. Growing and declining

  23. Main messages • According to the results of this set of regional projections (Trend scenario): • Nearly half of the EU regions are likely to have a population size in 2031 smaller than in 2004; more than 2/3 could have started a descending trend • All are expected to age • The ageing will take place to differing degrees and timing across EU regions • Migration is projected to be the main driver of the regional population growth

  24. Further reading and data • Statistics in Focus nn/2007 ”Long-term population projections at regional level” (pre-print available) • Statistics in Focus 3/2006 ”Long-term population projections at national level” • “Regions: Statistical yearbook”, 2006 edition • “Population Statistics”, 2006 edition • Statistics in Focus 16/2006 ”Population in Europe 2005: first results” • Eurostat Working Papers and Studies “Demographic Outlook – National reports on the demographic developments in 2005” • Eurostat web site: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu

  25. Thanks for your attention For any further information please contact: giampaolo.lanzieri@ec.europa.eu

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