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The Bangchak Petroleum. Opportunity Day June 15, 2006. Disclaimer.
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The Bangchak Petroleum Opportunity Day June 15, 2006
Disclaimer The Information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. In addition, such information contains projections and forward - looking figures that reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks. No assurance is given that the future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that Company’s assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.
Contents • Company’s Performance 1Q, 2006 • Marketing Plan and Activities • 3. Product Quality Improvement Project (PQI)
Dubai Crude Price 1995-2006 Iran/Nigeria Problem USD/BBL Hurricane Oil price has been increased more than 40-45$/bbl from 15$/bbl, especially in 2004-2005, the price increasing more than 30 $/bbl • Hedge Fund Buying • Norway/Nigeria Concern • Hedge Fund Buying • Nigeria Concern US attack Iraq 911 Asian Crisis OPEC Cartel to cut 4 series quota production at total 4.3 MBD 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
WORLD OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY 2005 Supply Demand MBD % MBD % Source : IEA Annual Statistical Supplement for 2004 and IEA February 2006
ASIA PACIFIC REGION 2005 Source : IEA February 2006
WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND 2006 (F) Asia-Pacific SUP 7.8 DEM 24.6 N. America SUP 14.3 DEM 25.9 S.&Cent. America SUP 6.6 DEM 5.2 FSU SUP 12.2 DEM 3.9 Europe SUP 5.6 DEM 16.3 Africa SUP 9.7 DEM 3.0 Middle East SUP 29.2 DEM 6.2 Unit: MBD World 20042005D2006D Supply 83.1 84.1 +1.1 85.4 +1.3 Demand 82.2 83.3 +1.1 85.1 +1.8 Stock Ch./ +0.9 +0.8 +0.3 Unaccount Source : IEA February 2006
BCP : 1 out of 2 Integrated Oil Company in Thailand Minimart / Non Oil Service station + Yield LPG = 3% Mogas = 18% IK/ JP-1 = 11% HSD = 35% FO = 30% Refinery Business (100%) Sriracha PTT Plc. (30%) Wholesale customers (10%) IMPORT CRUDE (86%) (ME : FE = 50%:50%) Marketing Business (60%) THAI Hydroskimming Refinery 120 KBD INDUSTRIAL LOCAL CRUDE (14%) Value Chain Crude Cost Ex- Ref Price Wholesale Price Retail Price GRM MKM - COCO (286) - JV (181) - DODO (130) - CO-OP (550) • Key Strengths • Low break-even refinery with remaining useful life more than 30 years • Large network of service stations with strong Co-op service station strategy
Singapore’s Oil Price Movement 2005 - 2006 USD/BBL IK/JET UNL 95 GO0.5% TAPIS DB FO180 2005 2006
Domestic Oil Price - HSD Baht / Litre 2005 2006 Retail Price Ex – Ref Price
Domestic Oil Price - ULG95 Baht / Litre 2005 2006 Retail Price Ex – Ref Price
Details of 1Q, 2006 performance by BUs EBITDA(ACCOUNTING) +1,319 Refinery Business Unit Marketing Business Unit Actual Target Actual Target +398 +181 +1,141 +178 EBITDA (million Baht) EBITDA (million Baht) M. Baht M. Baht M. Baht M. Baht $/BBL $/BBL St./ L. St./ L. 226 • Retail Margin 200 • Base GRM 477 200 0.78 36.0 41.7 1.84 +2.67 +3.31 114 • Industrial Margin 48.0 50.9 116 0.83 107 • Improvement Programs 225 0.42 • Industrial 79 57 87 63 - - 541 • Hedging 2.11 35 • JET 33 35 30 - • Inventory Gain/ (Loss) 760 +462 • Lube Margin - +1.80 18 27 633 GRM 5.11 2.67 Total MKM 46.8 43.0 • Other Income - 149 - 104 13.5 18.8 • Co-Load Settlement 70 0.27 • Operating Expenses (309) (37.1) (39.0) (286) Total 5.38 2.67 Sales Volume (KBD) 54.6 54 • Other Income 0.03 2 7 0.01 - Retail Vol. 38 38 - Industrial Vol. 16 16 • Operating Expenses (245) (306) (0.96) (1.12) 256 (ML/ Month) 264 - Retail Vol. 185 180 Adjusted EBITDA +679 +398 79 - Industrial Vol. 76 66 70 Crude Run (KBD)
Company’s performance 1Q, 2006 Unit : Million Baht Target 1st Quarter 2006 Refinery Marketing Total Per Quarter, 06 +1,141 +178 +1,319 • EBITDA +579 (101) (107) (208) (195) • Depreciation (149) (183) • Net Interest Expense - • FX Gain/ (Loss) from others (50) - • Gain/ (Loss) from subsidiary (14) 898 • Profit before tax 201 • Tax (241) • Net Profit 657 - - 462 • Inventory Gain/ (Loss) 462
Marketing Business still has more room to improve Market Share Unit : % 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 11.3% 12.4% 12.8% 12.7% 1.3% 3.0% 0.1% 30.3% 29.0% 31.9% 32.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 16.3% 16.7% 15.9% 15.6% 0.7% 2.4% 0.7% 17.6% 18.3% 15.9% 16.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% Others 24.5% 23.6% 23.4% 23.2% 2005 1Q,06 2003 2004 Thruput per Station 417 Unit : KL/Service station/ Month 351 361 370 347 345 324 347 339 323 283 289 223 225 227 210 2003 2004 2005 1Q,06
Others 14.7 % 8.5 % 31.9 % 12.7 % 15.6 % 16.6 % 4th Rank Market Share 1Q, 2006 Source : DOEB, MOE
Sale Volumes through Service Station and Market Share 1Q, 2006 TOTAL Market Share (%) Sale Volumes (ML/MO) 2005 2005 2006 2006 449 219 233 179 120 100 33 73 1,406 432 229 229 180 104 106 38 95 1,413 +4.0% -4.5% +1.7% -0.7% +14.5% -5.9% -18.8% -21.7% -0.5% 31.9 15.6 16.6 12.7 8.5 7.1 2.3 5.3 100.0 30.5 16.2 16.2 12.7 7.4 7.5 2.7 6.8 100.0 + 1.4 - 0.6 + 0.4 - + 1.1 - 0.4 - 0.4 - 1.5 PTT SHELL ESSO BCP CTX JET PETRONAS OTHERS TOTAL Source : Ministry of Energy
Sale Volumes through Service Station and Market Share 1Q, 2006 MOGAS Market Share (%) Sale Volumes (ML/MO) 2005 2005 2006 2006 136 83 73 62 42 37 12 18 463 133 88 72 59 42 43 16 27 480 +2.1% -6.0% +1.5% +5.9% +1.6% -14.9% -20.8% -33.9% -3.4% 29.3 17.9 15.8 13.4 9.1 7.9 2.7 3.9 100.0 27.7 18.3 15.0 12.2 8.7 9.0 3.3 5.8 100.0 +1.6 -0.4 +0.8 +1.2 +0.4 -1.1 -0.6 -1.9 PTT SHELL ESSO BCP CTX JET PETRONAS OTHERS TOTAL Source : Ministry of Energy
Sale Volumes through Service Station and Market Share 1Q, 2006 GASOHOL Market Share (%) Sale Volumes (ML/MO) 2005 2005 2006 2006 37 22 6 27 5 3 1 1 102 5 2 0 9 0 0 0 0 16 +32 +20 +6 +18 +5 +3 +1 +1 +86 35.8 21.6 6.1 26.1 5.4 3.3 0.5 1.2 100.0 30.6 11.9 0.0 57.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 100.0 +5.2 +9.8 +6.1 -31.2 +5.4 +3.3 +0.5 +0.9 PTT SHELL ESSO BCP CTX JET PETRONAS OTHERS TOTAL Source : Ministry of Energy
Sale Volume of Gasohol 95 No. of service station Sale (ML.) Jan 05 Feb 05 Mar 05 Apr 05 May 05 Jun 05 Jul 05 Aug 05 Sep 05 Oct 05 Nov 05 Dec 05 Jan 06 Feb 06 Mar 06 Apr 06 May 06 Type : Standard + Cooperative Type : Standard
Sale Volume of Gasohol 91 No. of service station Sale (ML.) Jan 05 Feb 05 Mar 05 Apr 05 May 05 Jun 05 Jul 05 Aug 05 Sep 05 Oct 05 Nov 05 Dec 05 Jan 06 Feb 06 Mar 06 Apr 06 May 06
Sale Volumes through Service Station and Market Share 1Q, 2006 HSD Market Share (%) Sale Volumes (ML/MO) 2005 2005 2006 2006 313 136 160 117 77 63 20 56 942 299 141 157 121 63 63 23 67 934 +4.9% -3.6% +1.7% -3.9% +23.1% +0.2% -10.0% -16.6% +1.0% 33.2 14.5 17.0 12.4 8.2 6.7 2.2 5.8 100.0 32.0 15.1 16.9 13.0 6.7 6.7 2.4 7.2 100.0 + 1.2 - 0.6 + 0.1 - 0.6 + 1.5 - - 0.2 - 1.4 PTT SHELL ESSO BCP CTX JET PETRONAS OTHERS TOTAL Source : Ministry of Energy
SERVICE STATION - MARKET SHARE FOR 1Q, 2006 MOGAS GASOHOL HSD
Marketing Plan – NON OIL Cooperative with Family Mart to operate C-store Target 9 places in 2006
Marketing Activities - Gasohol Club Target 60,000 members in 2006 • สิทธิประโยชน์ • รับส่วนลดสะสมน้ำมัน 20 สตางค์ต่อลิตร เมื่อเติมแก๊สโซฮอล์ • รับส่วนลดน้ำมันเครื่องทันที 10 % ที่สถานีบริการน้ำมันบางจากทั่วประเทศ • บริการช่วยเหลือรถเสียฉุกเฉิน โดย AXA Assistance • ส่วนลด 5% ที่ร้านใบจาก และ Lemon Green ที่ร่วมรายการ • รับส่วนลดจากร้านค้าต่างๆ ในสถานีบริการน้ำมันบางจาก
Marketing Activities - NGV ปิดสถานีบริการน้ำมันที่ไม่มีศักยภาพ พัฒนาสถานีบริการ NGV ทดแทน ร่วมมือกับปตท.เปิดสถานีบริการ NGV 13 แห่งภายในปี 2006
3. Product Quality Improvement Project (PQI)
Cracking Unit The Further Improvement: Product Quality Improvement Project + Co-Operation with other refineries EXISTING GRM USD ~1.8 / Barrel USD 378 Million (Incl. IDC & Contingency) + GRM USD ~6.0 / Barrel PQI COD in 2008 • Economic return (based on GO/FO gap of USD 13.5) • IRR project > 25% • Construction Period 30 Months PQI investment is necessary due to drastically improved GRM.
EPC Contractor CTCI CTCI Corporation
EPC Contractor Major Reference in Thailand Amata 170 MW CCPP Piping Work Thai Oil GTG/HRSG ProjectTOC II & HCU-2 PTTUT CUP 1 Bangchak Gas Oil HDS Bayer BPA & PC II Expansion Mechanical Work Khon Kaen l PPG Coatings Plant Nakhon Sawan TOC C2 Cold Train and C3 Train Bangkok Rohm & Haas PAA Plant BanpanKong £ Nakong Pathong l l TPC-OXY PVC Paste Resin Plant Rayong Purifier Topping Unit Sriracha l Rayong l HMC PP-I Upgrading; PP-II; Year 2001 & 2002 Debottleneck Diapolyacrylic PMMA Plant Cerestar Modified Starch Plant TIG ASU 400 TPD Thai MMA TBA #2 and New MMA Tank Tuntex PTA Plant ISBL; Waste Gas Venturi Scrubber; RVF Vinythai VCM Plant Maxxis Rubber Tire Plant MPKC (“Bayer”) ABS/SAN Plant
The Successful Fund Raising vs. Uses of Fund Baht Million Baht Million Equity from PTT + FI 6,579 Loan 8,400 Operating Cash 390 Total 15,369 EPC Contract Price 11,163 Owner supplies and other costs 1,505 Financing Cost (Net) 863(1) Contingency 1,231(2) Total 14,762(3) Sources Uses Excess cash Bt 607 million or USD ~16 million Note: (1) Using fixed deposit rate of 5% (Interest receive from equity proceed) (2) Using FX of Bt 41.03 per USD for conservative purpose. (3) BCP has hedged all of FX exposure and interest rate risks, excluding contingency.
PQI Financing Structure - Debt Financing Debt Financing USD 200 million Syndicated loans from 3 banks : TMB, SCIB, GSB Indicative Term and Conditions Type : Secured Term Loan (Project Financing Basis) Amount : Baht 8,400 million Maturity : 9 and a half years with grace period during construction Interest : MLR-related Repayment : Almost equal installment profile Security : Pari passu with existing lender
PQI Financing Structure - Equity Financing Equity Financing USD 175 million • PTT : USD 120 million • FI : USD 55 million Indicative Term and Conditions of PTT’s equity participation Type : Common share and Subordinated Convertible debenture Amount : USD 120 million Shareholding percentage* : 29.75% Price : Baht 14 per share Indicative Term and Conditions of FI’s equity participation Type : Common share Amount : USD 55 million Price : Baht 14 per share * Including existing PTT shareholding in CSDR for 52 million shares
Instrument Features Summary CS-DR (BCP-DR1) Maturity : 10 years ( Feb 2, 2014 ) Guarantee : by MOF at Baht 13 per share Conversion : 1:1 Voluntary 5th of Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct Force BCP-DR1 price > 20.8 Baht 15 days continuously Maturity : 10 years ( Jan 29, 2014 ) Guarantee : by MOF at Baht 10,000 per CD unit Interest rate : 3% pa. Conversion : 1 CD convert to 699.3 shares (conversion price 14.30 Baht) Voluntary 30th of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec Force BCP-DR1 price > 21.45 Baht 15 days continuously CD-DR Maturity : 10 years ( May 15, 2016 ) Interest rate : 3% pa. Conversion : 1 CD convert to 714.3 shares (conversion price 14.00 Baht) Voluntary 1st of Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct Force maintain not less than 25% shareholding CD-PTT Warrant (BCP-W1) Maturity : 5 years ( May 14, 2011 ) Offer : 10 existing common shares or CS-DR get 1 warrant Exercise price : Baht 18 per share Exercise date : 30th of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec Maturity : 5 years ( Aug 24, 2009 ) Exercise price : Baht 5 per share Exercise date : 20thof Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec Condition : BCP-DR1 price > 21 Baht 5 days continuously after 1st year BCP-DR1 price > 23 Baht 5 days continuously after 2nd year BCP-DR1 price > 25 Baht 5 days continuously after 3rd year ESOP
Shareholder Structure as of Apr 2006 and May 16, 2006 Unit : Million shares Apr 2006 May 16, 2006 Fully diluted MOF PTT Others 125 (18%) 52 (8%) 343 (51%) 125 (11%) 52 (5%) 343 (31%) 125 (9%) 52 (4%) 343 (24%) Total CSDR 520 (77%) 520 (47%) 520 (37%) PTT Others (Included CDDR partially convert 128 Mil. shares) 281 (20%) 318 (22%) 281 (25%) 318 (28%) -0- 171 (23%) FI Total (CSDR+CS) 691 (100%) 1,119 (100%) 1,119 (79%) CDDR fully convert to CS (at 14.3 Baht/share) 152 (11%) CD-PTT fully convert to CS (at 14 Baht/share) 42 (3%) 69 (5%) Warrant fully convert to CS (add 18 Baht/share) 24 (2%) ESOP Total (Fully diluted) 1,406 (100%)
Chronology BOD decided to pursue PQI Project 30 Sep 04 BOD approved investment PQI and called EGM 29 Aug 05 Invitation to Bid (ITB) fully issuance 09 Sep 05 Proposal submission 19 Dec 05 BOD selected EPC contractor 16 Mar 06 BOD approved financing matters 31 Mar 06 LOI issuance 06 Apr 06
Chronology • Signing Ceremony • PTT - Subscription agreement 21 Apr 06 • Bankers - Facilities agreement 21 Apr 06 • CTCI - Construction contract 21, 24 Apr 06 Commencement of contract 21 Apr 06 FI subscription 15 May 06 PTT subscription & Financing closed 16 May 06 Detail design & Site preparation End of Jul 06 Start construction work Aug 06 Mechanical completion 24 Aug 08 Commissioning & Test run 24 Oct 08
EBITDA after PQI Project Unit : Million Baht Actual Est. before PQI Est. after PQI (Current Price)
Thank You Any further questions, please contact Investor Relation Tel : (662) 335-4583 Fax : (662) 713-9410 Email : ir@bangchak.co.th