Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction Task Team (MEAP-TT)

1. GODAE Ocean View 1st Steering Team meeting Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction Task Team (MEAP-TT) P. Brasseur (CNRS/LEGI, FR) and N. Gruber (ETH, CH), co-chairs In this report: • The joint IMBER-GODAE initiative for ecosystem modelling • 2007 workshop conclusions and recommendations from IGST • Task Team: objectives and membership • Actions and furure plan GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

2. The GODAE – IMBER initiative for ecosystem modelling The IMBER vision is to provide a comprehensive understanding of, and accurate predictive capacity for, ocean responses to accelerating global change and the consequent effects on the Earth System and human society. The goal is “to investigate the sensitivity of marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems to global change, on time scales ranging from years to decades”. At thefirst GODAE-IMBER meeting at CNRS (12-13 June 2007) a new working group was formed to facilitate dialogue between those developing new ecosystem models and the developers of the operational systems. GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

3. Joint GODAE-IMBER workshop, June 2007 Main outcomes and response from IGST Focus on 3 key areas • How IMBER modellers can benefit from the products and insight generated by GODAE ? • IGST encouraged IMBER to plan offline experiments with GODAE physical ocean state estimates (reanalysis) • How GODAE products can be improved from the particular perspective of IMBER modellers ? • IGST recognized the critical importance of vertical processes (advection, diffusion) for many situations of IMBER interest, and suggested investigations into these vertical processes with systems already coupled • How ocean observing systems can be designed and improved to better observed ocean ecosystem and biogeochemistry ? • IGST recommanded not to make this area a too high priority (GODAE not the relevant political leverage to move these issues forward) GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

4. GODAE-IMBER working group Membership Name Institution Patrick Monfray* CNRS, France Rahgu Murtugudde* ESSIC/UMD, US Fei Chai* University of Maine, US Tony Lee NASA / JPL, US Naoki Yoshie* Fisheries Res. Agency, Japan Hiromichi Igarashi JAMSTEC, Japan Yoichi Ishikawa Kyoto University Toshiyuki Awaji Kyoto University Richard Matear CSIRO Marine & Atm Res Rosa Barciela Met Office, UK Kirsten Wilmer-Becker** Met Office, UK Pierre Brasseur CNRS, France Eric Greiner Mercator-ocean, France Keith Brander* ICES Nicolas Gruber*(excused) ETH Zürich, CH * invited by IMBER, others by GODAE ** assuming the secretariat of the meeting GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

5. GODAE-IMBER Working Group « activities » in 2008 • No formal meeting of the working group since June 2007, no feedback from IGST discussed by the WG; • Patrick Monfray (CNRS) stepped down as IGST member, Nicolas Gruber in charge of the working group; • The WG synthesized its key findings in the GODAE paper on ecosystems (Brasseur et al. 2008); • Discussions about the integration of new biogeochemical models into GODAE systems (GODAE final symposium); • GODAE symposium report published by Nicolas Gruber in IMBER Update newsletter n°12; • Input to white paper about the future of GODAE (Le Traon et al., 2008) • Proposal for a new “GODAE” Task Team on Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction; • Pierre Brasseur in charge of leading this Task Team since march 2009 Lack of continuity in the leadership of this group in 2008 GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

6. Integrating biogeochemistry and ecology into ocean data assimilation systems By Pierre Brasseur, Nicolas Gruber, Rosa Barciela, Keith Brander, Maeva Doron, Abdelali El Moussaoui, Alistair J. Hobday, Martin Huret, Anne-Sophie Kremeur, Patrick Lehodey, Cyril Moulin, Ragu Murtugudde, Inna Senina, Einar Svendsen, Richard Matear (Oceanography, accepted). Areas of benefit : 4 main application categories • Phytoplankton biomass estimation in the open ocean • Monitoring ocean carbon uptake and CO2 air/sea exchange • Marine ecosystem management (fisheries) at seasonal and longer-term time scales • Regional downscaling and coastal applications GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

7. Biogeochemical model (Frenzel et al., 2004) Predation mortality applied to plankton Starvation mortality Food availability (x,y,z,t) Growth Forage and predation Fishing mortality Natural mortality Plankton as a prey for fish Physical ocean information input: high-resolution and synopticity GODAE systems Integrating biogeochemistry and ecology into ocean data assimilation systems GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

8. Air-sea CO2 fluxes from the inversion of ocean interior carbon data Data: unperturbed CO2 Data: anthropogenic CO2 ∆Cgasex = DIC - rC:P PO43- - 1/2 (Alk + rN:P PO43-) - Cant Following Gruber and Sarmiento (2002) Cant : estimated on the basis of the ∆C* method of Gruber et al. (1996) GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

9. PP E En’ 1 2 3 5 6 surface 4 Epipelagic layer Mesopelagic layer day Bathypelagic layer sunset, sunrise night Integration of mid-trophic level (prey) dynamics to predict the behaviour of large oceanic predators Predicted distribution of daytime epipelagic micronekton biomass by SEAPODYM (Lehodey et al., 2008) Primary production derived from satellite (Behrenfeld et al., 2006) SEAPODYM: 6 functional groups in 3 vertical layers GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

10. Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction: Objectives (from Le Traon et al., 2008) • to foster research on ecosystem modeling and assimilation strategies in the framework of of operational systems; (ii) to further assess and demonstrate the value of operational products for marine ecosystem monitoring and prediction; (iii) to expand the concept of the “GODAE metrics” to biogeochemical variables and to develop intercomparison exercises across international groups; (iv) to identify the essential sets of physical and biogeochemical observations required to constrain the coupled models and formulate relevant recommendations on these issues; (v) to promote and organize educational activities (summer schools, training workshops, etc.) aimed at sharing experience between young scientists, operational oceanographers and marine ecosystem experts. GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

11. Actions and future plan • IMBER-GODAE WG to be dissolved and aborbed by the MEAP-TT ? • TT membership to be clarified (at least one scientist from all major GOV groups + main application areas + interfaces with IMBER, ICES, CLIOTOP, SOLAS ? IOCCG ? GEOTRACES ?); • Revisit the IMBER-GODAE working plan proposed in 2007, taking into account the recommendations of the IGST and ISSC; GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

12. GODAE-IMBER Working Group Initial plan GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

13. Actions and future plan • IMBER-GODAE WG to be dissolved and aborbed by the MEAP-TT ? • TT membership to be reconsidered (at least one scientist from all major GOV groups + main application areas + experts, interfaces with IMBER, ICES, CLIOTOP, SOLAS ? IOCCG ? GEOTRACES ?); • Revisit the IMBER-GODAE working plan proposed in 2007, taking into account the recommendations of the IGST and ISSC; • Organize a workshop early next year (AGU ?) to review the progress made since 2007 and to develop a more structured framework of activities until 2013 (« bottom-up » approach needed to build a realistic workplan); • Develop a proposal for a summer school in liaison with IMBER and/or SOLAS GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

14. Questions ? GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

15. 1993 1992 1994 1995 1998 1999 1996 1997 2000 2001 North Atlantic demonstration Annual chlorophyll over 1992-2001 using MERCATOR re-analysis (MERA-11) and LOBSTER First demonstration of interannual reanalysis of the biogeochemical state of the ocean GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

16. Log(chl) from model with no biological assimilation Log(chl) from model with biological assimilation Ocean Colour Data Assimilation Log(chl) observations Real world experiments – on 1st July 2003 GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

17. Fisheries management with environmental data September 16, 2008 Examples of maps distributed online to stakeholders GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

18. AlgaRisk08 project integrates EO with operational model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) • Daily analysis & 5 day forecast. • Parameters provided: • physical: SST, salinity, stratification, currents, PAR, wind, cloud cover. • biogeochemical: phytoplankton biomass, flagellates, dinoflagellates, picoplankton, nutrient ratios. • Predictive tool used by Environment Agency to assess prediction of nuisance bloom events on beaches Boundary conditions from FOAM GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France